Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 9:18 PM Moonrise 4:09 PM   Moonset 1:36 AM

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FXUS65 KBYZ 170857 AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 257 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

DISCUSSION

Today through Wednesday Night...

Today through Tuesday will remain cooler and unsettled as our next weather system moves through the region. This system will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to the lower elevations and snow showers to the mountains. Expect chances of precipitation to increase from west to east today, then decrease across the region Tuesday evening. Chances of precipitation are highest this evening through Tuesday morning (30-95% chance, highest west). Central and eastern areas (around and east of Billings) will likely remain dry for most of the day today before showers and thunderstorms develop within modest instability this afternoon and evening. In eastern Montana (east of Billings), a few storms could become strong to severe with good shear in place.
The main threats with the strongest storms today will be hail and wind. SPC's severe weather outlook currently has a marginal risk across eastern Montana (and Sheridan County, Wyoming) and a slight risk across far southeastern Montana (portions of Carter and Powder River Counties). After this activity today, periods of showers and weak thunderstorms will persist through the night into Tuesday across the region. Stay weather aware if you have outdoor plans early this week.

While some uncertainty still remains in the track of the upcoming weather system and associated precipitation totals, model guidance has come into better agreement with recent runs (GFS trending towards the ECMWF). Anywhere from 0.15 to 1 inch of precipitation (rainfall and melted snowfall) can be expected with the highest amounts generally north of Billings. Locally higher amounts are possible in the western mountains and under thunderstorms across the area, especially in the east. As far as snow goes, accumulations can generally be expected above 7000 ft.
Chances of 3 or more inches of snow in the higher terrain of the Crazy and Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains is high. Along the Beartooth Highway, 1-4 inches of snow can be expect. This will create slick and wintry road conditions this evening through Tuesday.

Drier conditions will prevail Wednesday with only low chances of precipitation returning during the evening as a weak shortwave moves through (10-40% chance).

Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 70s today, 50s to lower 60s Tuesday, and upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s for the most part Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night, with Tuesday night being the coldest. Arends

Thursday through Sunday...

Pacific trof will approach from the west on Thursday. Downslope flow ahead of the front will diminish afternoon/evening convection chances for the western half of the forecast area. However the approaching system will pull plains moisture in from the southeast enhancing precipitation chances east of Billings from the afternoon through the evening hours. Highs on Thursday will range from 75 to 85 degrees. Pacific front arrives late Thursday night bringing good precipitation chances through Friday night. Forecast highs on Friday drop back into the 70s, and still look a bit warm given the cloud cover and precipitation. Saturday is in a bit of flux as latest models are trending further north with the core of the Pacific system, which would dry things out by Saturday afternoon. However the area is still under cyclonic flow so instability should be enough to keep at least some precipitation in the forecast into Saturday evening. Forecast highs Saturday are mainly in the 70s. Ridging builds in for Sunday with temperatures pushing back toward 90 degrees. Southeast winds will bring humidity into the region to make it feel very much like Summer.
Chambers

AVIATION

Storm system will move into the area today. Isolated showers are possible this morning, mainly along the western mountains and foothills. By mid day shower activity will spread east toward Billings. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected by 20z from Billings east into the Dakotas through the early evening hours, with widespread shower activity building in behind the storms as upper level energy overspreads the region. Snow levels drop below 6500 feet over western mountains and foothills during the evening hours. KLVM could see a mix of rain and snow as early as 03z. Periods of gusty east to northeast winds can be expected today and tonight, with a shift to a northwest direction this evening.

VFR conditions will prevail through mid day, with periods of MVFR near precipitation areas this afternoon. MVFR conditions will become more widespread this evening as ceilings drop and rain becomes more persistent. Local IFR conditions are expected after 03z. Mountain obscuration will become prevalent late afternoon into early evening. Chambers

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 068 044/059 041/073 048/079 057/077 056/080 058/090 4/W 87/T 21/U 01/B 35/T 53/T 10/U LVM 058 037/059 034/069 039/076 048/078 050/080 052/090 9/T 96/T 32/T 01/B 25/T 52/T 11/U HDN 072 044/061 038/076 048/082 056/079 055/081 056/091 5/T 87/T 11/U 12/T 45/T 63/T 10/U MLS 070 047/057 040/073 050/079 056/077 056/078 056/087 8/T 87/W 21/U 22/T 55/T 64/T 20/U 4BQ 075 048/060 040/073 051/079 057/078 057/078 057/088 6/T 73/W 12/W 12/T 55/T 73/T 10/U BHK 069 046/058 038/071 048/077 054/076 055/078 054/086 4/T 85/W 21/B 12/T 54/T 64/T 20/U SHR 077 040/061 036/074 046/080 053/078 052/079 053/089 6/T 73/T 11/U 12/T 46/T 63/T 11/U

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT Tuesday FOR ZONE 67.
WY...None.

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