Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX
June 2, 2024 5:14 PM CDT (22:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:23 AM Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM Moonset 3:53 PM |
FXUS64 KLUB 021948 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A complex of thunderstorms are currently ongoing as of 1:30 pm across the eastern Rolling Plains. This activity was generated from a southwestward moving outflow boundary that was located along a line from near Guthrie to Floydada to Tulia. The eastern portion of the boundary should continue to shift southward as it is reinforced by the ongoing thunderstorms while the western portion of this boundary appears to be fairly stationary now as the temperature gradient is fairly small. West of this boundary surface moisture has been stubborn to mix out with upper 60s to lower 70s being observed across the eastern South Plains. Even farther west a dryline is beginning to sharpen near the state line and will quickly mix east to near the Highway 385 corridor. Both of these boundaries are expected to have convective initiation along them this afternoon as a shortwave swings over the forecast area within an environment that will be conducive for supercells. MLCAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg are present across most of the forecast area (west of the outflow boundary) with effective bulk shear values of 35-40 kts. The profiles are supportive of supercells however with the very unstable airmass numerous thunderstorms should develop (as is being seen across the Rolling Plains) which would interfere with storm organization. However, if a storm can remain discrete very large hail in excess of tennis ball size would be possible along with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Additionally, if a discrete storm becomes established on the outflow boundary, a few tornadoes would also be possible. Eventually a cold pool should strengthen so that storm mode becomes more linear as it shifts east across the Rolling Plains this evening with the primary concern being damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph. This activity may also produce heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flash flooding especially across the Rolling Plains where the heaviest rainfall has fallen over the past several days. Thunderstorm activity should come to an end early Monday morning. Some patchy fog may be possible Monday morning especially for locations that see heavier rainfall this evening.
Surface troughing will strengthen across eastern New Mexico tomorrow with a stronger westerly flow. This will shift the dryline east into the Rolling Plains by the late afternoon. This drier air and downsloping westerly winds will cause high temperatures to climb 5- 15 degrees warmer than today with upper 90s to the lower 100s.
Strong capping will be in place across our forecast area and with limited upper-level support this cap is expected to hold strong through the afternoon therefore have left the area dry for tomorrow afternoon however the strength of the cap will need to be watched with subsequent updates. /WI
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Hot and dry conditions will continue for Tuesday with rising upper heights and warm southwesterly surface winds. Triple-digit high temperatures are expected across much of the area. A weak cold front will move through Tuesday evening. This will only slightly cool temperatures with highs still reaching the mid 90s. The next meaningful chance of showers and thunderstoms will be towards the end of the week with the combination of a more moist ESE flow and upper waves propagating across the area. Storm chances look to persist into the weekend, however it remains too early to determine specific details.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Low ceilings have cleared at the three TAF sites with VFR conditions expected this afternoon. An outflow boundary is dropping southwest across the region, ahead of this boundary winds are out of the south while behind it winds are out of the east.
This may lead to a wind shift at LBB and PVW if that boundary manages to travel that far with wind speeds around 15 kts.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of LBB and PVW late this afternoon and then move east through the evening hours potentially impacting all three TAF sites. Frequent lightning, large hail, and damaging wind gusts would all be possible with the strongest storms. Thunderstorm activity will come to an end by late tonight. With widespread low-level moisture in place overnight, low clouds and fog are possible once again at all three TAF sites which if it develops would persist through the late morning hours tomorrow.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A complex of thunderstorms are currently ongoing as of 1:30 pm across the eastern Rolling Plains. This activity was generated from a southwestward moving outflow boundary that was located along a line from near Guthrie to Floydada to Tulia. The eastern portion of the boundary should continue to shift southward as it is reinforced by the ongoing thunderstorms while the western portion of this boundary appears to be fairly stationary now as the temperature gradient is fairly small. West of this boundary surface moisture has been stubborn to mix out with upper 60s to lower 70s being observed across the eastern South Plains. Even farther west a dryline is beginning to sharpen near the state line and will quickly mix east to near the Highway 385 corridor. Both of these boundaries are expected to have convective initiation along them this afternoon as a shortwave swings over the forecast area within an environment that will be conducive for supercells. MLCAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg are present across most of the forecast area (west of the outflow boundary) with effective bulk shear values of 35-40 kts. The profiles are supportive of supercells however with the very unstable airmass numerous thunderstorms should develop (as is being seen across the Rolling Plains) which would interfere with storm organization. However, if a storm can remain discrete very large hail in excess of tennis ball size would be possible along with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Additionally, if a discrete storm becomes established on the outflow boundary, a few tornadoes would also be possible. Eventually a cold pool should strengthen so that storm mode becomes more linear as it shifts east across the Rolling Plains this evening with the primary concern being damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph. This activity may also produce heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flash flooding especially across the Rolling Plains where the heaviest rainfall has fallen over the past several days. Thunderstorm activity should come to an end early Monday morning. Some patchy fog may be possible Monday morning especially for locations that see heavier rainfall this evening.
Surface troughing will strengthen across eastern New Mexico tomorrow with a stronger westerly flow. This will shift the dryline east into the Rolling Plains by the late afternoon. This drier air and downsloping westerly winds will cause high temperatures to climb 5- 15 degrees warmer than today with upper 90s to the lower 100s.
Strong capping will be in place across our forecast area and with limited upper-level support this cap is expected to hold strong through the afternoon therefore have left the area dry for tomorrow afternoon however the strength of the cap will need to be watched with subsequent updates. /WI
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Hot and dry conditions will continue for Tuesday with rising upper heights and warm southwesterly surface winds. Triple-digit high temperatures are expected across much of the area. A weak cold front will move through Tuesday evening. This will only slightly cool temperatures with highs still reaching the mid 90s. The next meaningful chance of showers and thunderstoms will be towards the end of the week with the combination of a more moist ESE flow and upper waves propagating across the area. Storm chances look to persist into the weekend, however it remains too early to determine specific details.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Low ceilings have cleared at the three TAF sites with VFR conditions expected this afternoon. An outflow boundary is dropping southwest across the region, ahead of this boundary winds are out of the south while behind it winds are out of the east.
This may lead to a wind shift at LBB and PVW if that boundary manages to travel that far with wind speeds around 15 kts.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of LBB and PVW late this afternoon and then move east through the evening hours potentially impacting all three TAF sites. Frequent lightning, large hail, and damaging wind gusts would all be possible with the strongest storms. Thunderstorm activity will come to an end by late tonight. With widespread low-level moisture in place overnight, low clouds and fog are possible once again at all three TAF sites which if it develops would persist through the late morning hours tomorrow.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Frederick, OK,
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