Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
June 1, 2024 10:39 PM PDT (05:39 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 1:49 AM Moonset 2:29 PM |
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
PZZ300 846 Pm Pdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Relatively calm conditions are expected into tonight. A strong front by june standards will arrive on Sunday morning, bringing gusty south winds and an increasing west swell. Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected Sunday morning for areas north of gold beach due to increasing winds and swell. Winds may reach low end gales north of cape blanco late Sunday morning through early evening. Additionally, a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Another front will move inland Monday morning with winds diminishing, but a west swell will increase during the day.
FXUS66 KMFR 020427 AAA AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 927 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024
UPDATED Discussion Section
DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery is showing cloud cover filtering in across southern Oregon and northern California. This cloud cover is associated with a very weak frontal boundary that is pushing through and ahead of our secondary front which will be our rain maker tomorrow. RADAR is showing a few returns, but it is unlikely that much outside of a brief sprinkle reaching the ground -- if anything.
The main question for the overnight forecast package will be whether or not winds Sunday night into Monday will reach advisory levels. While guidance has been a little mixed, enough signs point to advisory level winds for our typical spots in Lake County, so have issued a wind advisory. Please see the NPWMFR for details.
-Schaaf
AVIATION
02/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail for much of the region through the remainder of the evening. IFR/LIFR conditions are already occurring at the coast in advance of an approaching upper level trough. Gusty winds will ease this evening and strong front for June standards will arrive at the coast on Sunday morning, then slowly push inland through the day and overnight into Monday.
Expect MVFR cigs and terrain obscurations to increase throughout the day Sunday, especially west of the Cascades. /BR-y
MARINE
Updated 830 PM Saturday, June 1, 2024...Calm conditions are expected through this evening. A strong front by June standards will arrive on Sunday morning, bringing gusty south winds and an increasing west swell. Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected Sunday morning for areas north of Gold Beach due to increasing winds and swell. Winds may reach low end gales north of Cape Blanco late morning through early evening. Additionally, a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
The front will move inland Sunday afternoon, but another front is expected to move into the waters Sunday night which will result in increasing southwest winds. This front will move inland Monday morning with winds diminishing. However, westerly swell will increase during the day resulting in continued Small Craft conditions.
Hazardous conditions are likely to continue through the week, though due to varying weather patterns. An upper level trough will remain to the northwest, and this will send another, heavier, longer period swell (9 to 12 ft at 12 to 14 seconds) into the waters on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the thermal trough will likely return, bringing the return of strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas for the latter half of next week. /BR-y
PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 231 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024/
DISCUSSION...
Short Term
Tonight through Monday Night
A very weak trough is pushing some clouds through the area this afternoon, and a stray light shower is possible along the coast, where moist onshore flow could produce enough uplift to wring out a few hundredths of an inch of moisture. Otherwise, the area will remain dry through Sunday morning, especially with a weak shortwave ridge traversing overhead tonight.
The next system arrives Sunday afternoon, and is shaping up to be an impressive event for this time of year. The warm front arrives at the coast by midday Sunday, with overrunning producing light precipitation along and west of the Cascades through the afternoon and into the evening. The main belt of moisture arrives overnight, ahead of the cold front that will pass through the area early Monday.
A strong plume of moisture (precipitable water values of 1.5" or higher and moisture transport values (IVT) of 500-750 kg/ms) is associated with this system, which is more typical of systems in the winter. However, this is June, and therefore temperatures will be much warmer (snow levels of 8000 to 11000 feet), and no winter impacts are therefore expected, although rainfall amounts will be impressive for early June.
Light precipitation associated with the warm front will the transition to heavier rain as the the main belt of precipitation arrives along the coast and across much of Douglas County Sunday evening. Rain will then spread across the rest of the area overnight and into early Monday morning. Moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast along the coast, across the coastal mountains, Douglas County, and the Southern Oregon Cascades (especially Crater Lake north), with the rest of the area seeing mostly light to potentially moderate rain. Areas that see the heaviest rain may experience localized ponding of water on roadways, especially in urban areas or areas of poor drainage.
Otherwise, expect the rain to be largely beneficial.
The front will dissipate as it moves through the region, with post-frontal showers continuing through Monday afternoon for much of southern Oregon and far northern California, with most precipitation coming to an end by Monday night. Along the north coast, and perhaps within the Umpqua Basin, onshore zonal flow could keep some light showers ongoing into Monday night.
Also, much like the wet season systems, gusty west winds will be associated with the frontal passage. The strongest winds are expected along the immediate coast, over the ridgelines, and across the Eats Side. Our typical windy valley locations (Shasta and Rogue) will not be impacted as much due to the mostly westerly flow, but east of the Cascades, 700mb flows of around 50 kt suggest the potential for wind advisories, mainly along higher terrain and in the Summer Lake area. Will continue to assess the need for an advisory over the next shift or two. -BPN
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday night.
The forecast area will remain under zonal flow with an atmospheric river continuing to hit the region on Tuesday. Some of the northern sections of our forecast areas have a low chance of of seeing some showers with other locations remaining dry. There is a cold front out over the Pacific, but it doesn't push into sections of southern Oregon. After the wet start to the work week, temperatures on Tuesday are anticipated to trend 10 degrees warmer with highs slightly warmer than normal for this time of year.
This trend of warming temperatures will continue into Wednesday as high pressure begins to build over the four corners and some light east to northeast flow develops over southern Oregon. Models suggest a trough over the Pacific will be lingering and that could influence our weather by Thursday.
The latest deterministic models hint at convection and thunderstorms developing over southern Oregon and northern California as a weak shortwave begins to ride over the ridge on Thursday. The GFS denotes some modest instability around 1000J/kg of convective available potential energy with some modest shear at 35 knots out of the south. The ECMWF also initiates some convection over northern California Thursday afternoon and evening. The NBM PoP forecast is most confident is shower or storm active east of the Cascades, although we can't rule out storms west of the Cascades as well. In any case, Thursday will be a day to watch with regards to thunderstorms in future model runs.
The summer like temperatures continue towards the end of the week with highs in the upper 90's and some warmer lower temperatures as well. The NWS heat risk algorithm is picking up on some elevated heat risk due to warm daytime temperatures on Friday and Saturday, although it appears the overnight lows cool off enough to dismiss the need for any heat products at this time. Regarding the chance for 100 degrees in a few of the valley locations, it appears the chances have lowered a bit compared to a few days ago. The upper level ridge doesn't appear as built in and temperatures could trend lower if the ridge ends up farther to the east. The inverse could also happen as temperatures could move higher with a more westward position. In any case, the chance of 100 degrees in Medford and Montague is roughly 35% on Friday.
Overall, thunderstorms on Thursday and the moderate heat risk on Friday into Saturday are the big weather features in the extended forecast. Weather risk to the population at large is low, although heat will bring an increased threat to those that are sensitive to heat in valleys west of the Cascades.
-Smith
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for PZZ350- 370.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 927 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024
UPDATED Discussion Section
DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery is showing cloud cover filtering in across southern Oregon and northern California. This cloud cover is associated with a very weak frontal boundary that is pushing through and ahead of our secondary front which will be our rain maker tomorrow. RADAR is showing a few returns, but it is unlikely that much outside of a brief sprinkle reaching the ground -- if anything.
The main question for the overnight forecast package will be whether or not winds Sunday night into Monday will reach advisory levels. While guidance has been a little mixed, enough signs point to advisory level winds for our typical spots in Lake County, so have issued a wind advisory. Please see the NPWMFR for details.
-Schaaf
AVIATION
02/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail for much of the region through the remainder of the evening. IFR/LIFR conditions are already occurring at the coast in advance of an approaching upper level trough. Gusty winds will ease this evening and strong front for June standards will arrive at the coast on Sunday morning, then slowly push inland through the day and overnight into Monday.
Expect MVFR cigs and terrain obscurations to increase throughout the day Sunday, especially west of the Cascades. /BR-y
MARINE
Updated 830 PM Saturday, June 1, 2024...Calm conditions are expected through this evening. A strong front by June standards will arrive on Sunday morning, bringing gusty south winds and an increasing west swell. Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected Sunday morning for areas north of Gold Beach due to increasing winds and swell. Winds may reach low end gales north of Cape Blanco late morning through early evening. Additionally, a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
The front will move inland Sunday afternoon, but another front is expected to move into the waters Sunday night which will result in increasing southwest winds. This front will move inland Monday morning with winds diminishing. However, westerly swell will increase during the day resulting in continued Small Craft conditions.
Hazardous conditions are likely to continue through the week, though due to varying weather patterns. An upper level trough will remain to the northwest, and this will send another, heavier, longer period swell (9 to 12 ft at 12 to 14 seconds) into the waters on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the thermal trough will likely return, bringing the return of strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas for the latter half of next week. /BR-y
PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 231 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024/
DISCUSSION...
Short Term
Tonight through Monday Night
A very weak trough is pushing some clouds through the area this afternoon, and a stray light shower is possible along the coast, where moist onshore flow could produce enough uplift to wring out a few hundredths of an inch of moisture. Otherwise, the area will remain dry through Sunday morning, especially with a weak shortwave ridge traversing overhead tonight.
The next system arrives Sunday afternoon, and is shaping up to be an impressive event for this time of year. The warm front arrives at the coast by midday Sunday, with overrunning producing light precipitation along and west of the Cascades through the afternoon and into the evening. The main belt of moisture arrives overnight, ahead of the cold front that will pass through the area early Monday.
A strong plume of moisture (precipitable water values of 1.5" or higher and moisture transport values (IVT) of 500-750 kg/ms) is associated with this system, which is more typical of systems in the winter. However, this is June, and therefore temperatures will be much warmer (snow levels of 8000 to 11000 feet), and no winter impacts are therefore expected, although rainfall amounts will be impressive for early June.
Light precipitation associated with the warm front will the transition to heavier rain as the the main belt of precipitation arrives along the coast and across much of Douglas County Sunday evening. Rain will then spread across the rest of the area overnight and into early Monday morning. Moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast along the coast, across the coastal mountains, Douglas County, and the Southern Oregon Cascades (especially Crater Lake north), with the rest of the area seeing mostly light to potentially moderate rain. Areas that see the heaviest rain may experience localized ponding of water on roadways, especially in urban areas or areas of poor drainage.
Otherwise, expect the rain to be largely beneficial.
The front will dissipate as it moves through the region, with post-frontal showers continuing through Monday afternoon for much of southern Oregon and far northern California, with most precipitation coming to an end by Monday night. Along the north coast, and perhaps within the Umpqua Basin, onshore zonal flow could keep some light showers ongoing into Monday night.
Also, much like the wet season systems, gusty west winds will be associated with the frontal passage. The strongest winds are expected along the immediate coast, over the ridgelines, and across the Eats Side. Our typical windy valley locations (Shasta and Rogue) will not be impacted as much due to the mostly westerly flow, but east of the Cascades, 700mb flows of around 50 kt suggest the potential for wind advisories, mainly along higher terrain and in the Summer Lake area. Will continue to assess the need for an advisory over the next shift or two. -BPN
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday night.
The forecast area will remain under zonal flow with an atmospheric river continuing to hit the region on Tuesday. Some of the northern sections of our forecast areas have a low chance of of seeing some showers with other locations remaining dry. There is a cold front out over the Pacific, but it doesn't push into sections of southern Oregon. After the wet start to the work week, temperatures on Tuesday are anticipated to trend 10 degrees warmer with highs slightly warmer than normal for this time of year.
This trend of warming temperatures will continue into Wednesday as high pressure begins to build over the four corners and some light east to northeast flow develops over southern Oregon. Models suggest a trough over the Pacific will be lingering and that could influence our weather by Thursday.
The latest deterministic models hint at convection and thunderstorms developing over southern Oregon and northern California as a weak shortwave begins to ride over the ridge on Thursday. The GFS denotes some modest instability around 1000J/kg of convective available potential energy with some modest shear at 35 knots out of the south. The ECMWF also initiates some convection over northern California Thursday afternoon and evening. The NBM PoP forecast is most confident is shower or storm active east of the Cascades, although we can't rule out storms west of the Cascades as well. In any case, Thursday will be a day to watch with regards to thunderstorms in future model runs.
The summer like temperatures continue towards the end of the week with highs in the upper 90's and some warmer lower temperatures as well. The NWS heat risk algorithm is picking up on some elevated heat risk due to warm daytime temperatures on Friday and Saturday, although it appears the overnight lows cool off enough to dismiss the need for any heat products at this time. Regarding the chance for 100 degrees in a few of the valley locations, it appears the chances have lowered a bit compared to a few days ago. The upper level ridge doesn't appear as built in and temperatures could trend lower if the ridge ends up farther to the east. The inverse could also happen as temperatures could move higher with a more westward position. In any case, the chance of 100 degrees in Medford and Montague is roughly 35% on Friday.
Overall, thunderstorms on Thursday and the moderate heat risk on Friday into Saturday are the big weather features in the extended forecast. Weather risk to the population at large is low, although heat will bring an increased threat to those that are sensitive to heat in valleys west of the Cascades.
-Smith
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for PZZ350- 370.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA | 0 mi | 52 min | S 2.9G | 52°F | 30.05 | |||
| 46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA | 12 mi | 40 min | SW 3.9G | 51°F | 47°F | 30.06 | ||
| TDPC1 | 48 mi | 55 min | 46°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCEC JACK MC NAMARA FIELD,CA | 4 sm | 29 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 54°F | 52°F | 94% | 30.05 | |
| KBOK BROOKINGS,OR | 23 sm | 27 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 54°F | 100% | 30.05 |
Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:04 AM PDT 1.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:49 AM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM PDT 4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:45 PM PDT 0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM PDT Moonset
Sat -- 08:23 PM PDT 6.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:45 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:04 AM PDT 1.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:49 AM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM PDT 4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:45 PM PDT 0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM PDT Moonset
Sat -- 08:23 PM PDT 6.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:45 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Crescent City, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.4 |
| 5 am |
| 3.3 |
| 6 am |
| 4.2 |
| 7 am |
| 4.8 |
| 8 am |
| 4.9 |
| 9 am |
| 4.5 |
| 10 am |
| 3.7 |
| 11 am |
| 2.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 5 |
| 7 pm |
| 6.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 6.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 6.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.7 |
Brookings
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:08 AM PDT 1.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:49 AM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:43 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM PDT 4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:49 PM PDT 0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT Moonset
Sat -- 08:24 PM PDT 6.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:46 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:08 AM PDT 1.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:49 AM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:43 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM PDT 4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:49 PM PDT 0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT Moonset
Sat -- 08:24 PM PDT 6.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:46 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.7 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 3.2 |
| 6 am |
| 4.1 |
| 7 am |
| 4.7 |
| 8 am |
| 4.9 |
| 9 am |
| 4.6 |
| 10 am |
| 3.8 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 5 |
| 7 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 6.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 6.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 6 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.8 |
Medford, OR,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE