Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM   Moonset 5:01 PM

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LEZ146 Expires:202406040215;;388283 Fzus51 Kcle 031950 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 350 pm edt Mon jun 3 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-040215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 350 pm edt Mon jun 3 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Patchy fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 69 degrees, off cleveland 63 degrees, and off erie 63 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 040106 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 906 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slide into the Appalachians tonight while a warm front lifts north across the region late tonight and Tuesday morning in response to low pressure lifting into northern Ontario. This low will extend a cold front through the region late Wednesday. A trough will remain across the lake Thursday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
900 pm update... There were no adjustments made to the ongoing near term forecast as this time.

Previous discussion...
Fog and low clouds have finally dissipated across NE Ohio and NW PA, although weak onshore flow from a lake breeze is bringing lower visibilites and haze onshore east of Cleveland at times since patchy fog and haze continues over Lake Erie. Lakeshore areas from KCLE to KERI will see occasional drops in visibility to 3 to 5 miles this evening until the land breeze starts to kick in after 00 or 01Z, shifting the winds back offshore. One culprit to the lingering low-level moisture and resultant patchy fog today appears to be a diffuse warm front stretching southeastward from Lower Michigan to along the I-70 corridor in central Ohio. This front appears to have surged northward into southwestern Lower Michigan this afternoon where SW surface winds are seen in surface obs from that area through Indiana, but farther east, the frontal boundary appears to be curved south of the lower Great Lakes struggling to move northward as seen by generally light SE surface winds from southeastern Lower Michigan into northern Ohio. Some moisture pooling near the boundary and onshore flow near Lake Erie have seemed to keep the lower clouds and haze in place today, and that will especially remain the case over the lake tonight as dew point temps will be close to lake surface temps (low to mid 60s). The front should finally start to lift north and cross the lake tonight in response to weak low pressure lifting from the Upper Midwest this evening into northern Ontario Tuesday. This will allow the entire region to gradually get into the warm sector, so most areas will avoid fog tonight outside of immediate lakeshore areas and parts of interior NE Ohio and NW PA where the boundary will linger and combine with the nocturnal inversion. Mid/upper ridging will amplify across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Tuesday as the front quickly surges north in response to a deeper mid/upper trough diving into the northern Plains. This will lead to very warm and humid conditions in the warm sector with strong warm air advection supporting highs in the mid/upper 80s and dew points reaching the mid 60s. Went slightly above blended guidance for highs Tuesday since most areas will have no problem warming quickly given lots of sunshine expected. The gradient should also be strong enough to keep the lake breeze confined to immediate lakeshore areas east of Cleveland.
Moderate instability is expected for the afternoon, but forecast soundings suggest enough mid-level capping to keep all areas dry, so kept PoPs out of the forecast. We'll just need to watch the lake breeze boundary to possibly ignite an isolated thunderstorm.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase in NW and north central Ohio Tuesday night as the aforementioned mid/upper trough axis swings into the Upper Midwest and pushes a strong cold front into the western Great Lakes. With the stronger forcing not expected to arrive until Wednesday, kept PoPs at slight chance to chance Tuesday night, so most areas will stay dry. Lows Tuesday night will stay warm and humid with 65-70 expected in most areas.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft over our CWA through Wednesday night becomes W'erly to NW'erly on Thursday through Thursday night as a mid/upper-level low develops/wobbles SE'ward from near central mb to near Georgian Bay. Simultaneously, shortwave disturbances embedded in the flow aloft traverse our region and a surface trough impacts northern OH and NW PA. A cold front accompanying one of the shortwave disturbances is expected to sweep E'ward through our region Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Isolated to scattered and periodic showers/thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold front due to pre-front isentropic ascent and low- level convergence/ascent along the front itself. These lifting mechanisms are expected to coincide with sufficient low-level moisture and release weak to moderate instability, including elevated instability. Some storms may be strong to severe Wednesday afternoon and evening when moderate boundary layer CAPE in the warm/moist sector should overlap with moderate deep layer bulk shear. Behind the cold front, isolated/periodic rain showers are expected during the rest of Thursday through Thursday night due to moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes, low- level convergence/moist ascent along attendant surface trough axes, and the presence of potential instability in the surface to roughly 850 mb layer. Daytime heating of the relatively-moist boundary layer should yield weak, yet sufficient mixed layer CAPE for isolated thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into early evening.

Low-level WAA and peeks of sunshine should allow Wednesday's late afternoon highs to reach the upper 70's to mid 80's prior to the cold front passage. Gradual low-level cold/dry air advection behind the cold front should contribute to overnight lows reaching the lower to mid 60's around daybreak Thursday morning. Late afternoon highs should reach the 70's on Thursday and overnight lows should reach mainly the 50's around daybreak Friday as colder air continues to overspread our region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances continue to affect the Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley as the aforementioned mid/upper-level low wobbles in vicinity of central ON province. At the surface, a troughing lingers over/near our CWA and trough axes accompany the shortwave disturbances. This pattern will maintain an unusually-cold air mass across our region.
Periodic and isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected during the long-term period for very similar reasons noted in the Thursday through Thursday night portion of the short-term discussion. The greatest potential/coverage of convection are expected each afternoon through early evening due to the expectation of a typical diurnal cycle in boundary layer temperatures and instability, and self-destructive sunshine. Late afternoon highs should moderate gradually from the mid 60's to lower 70's on Friday to the 70's to 80F on Monday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 50's Friday night through Sunday night, respectively.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
All TAF sites are seeing VFR conditions except for ERI this evening. ERI is still being impacted by a marine layer coming off of Lake Erie with LIFR conditions in the form of very low stratus and dense fog. We expect ERI to be socked in with IFR/LIFR for a couple more hours this evening until the winds shift from off the lake back to a land breeze or about 3z.
Otherwise, the rest of the area will stay mainly VFR through tonight and tomorrow with mostly clear skies. There are a couple spots like MFD, CAK, YNG, and ERI that may see additional like MVFR fog developing again tonight between 08z and 12z into early Tuesday morning. Visibility may drop back between 3sm and 5sm and any light fog will quickly burn off shortly after sunrise.
Winds will be light and variable or from the south tonight under 5 knots. Winds will continue from the south 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday. There will likely be another lake breeze to switch the winds at ERI by midday and possibly CLE by mid afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected with periods of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Non-VFR will be possible with scattered rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms Thursday through Friday.

MARINE
Variable winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected through Tuesday as the western flank of a ridge affects Lake Erie. These winds will have on onshore component through this early evening and again late Tuesday morning through early evening due to lake breeze development. SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots veer gradually to S'erly Tuesday night into Wednesday as a warm front drifts N'ward across the lake. A cold front is then poised to sweep E'ward across Lake Erie Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. The cold front passage will cause S'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly. Behind the cold front, a trough is expected to linger over the Lake Erie region through Saturday and be accompanied by WSW'erly to NW'erly winds around 10 to nearly 20 knots. Waves are expected to be mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are expected, especially east of The Islands, on Friday through Saturday.

Of note, patchy advection fog is expected to linger over Lake Erie, especially east of The Islands, for the time being.
Mesoscale subsidence associated with a stronger lake breeze circulation over/near Lake Erie should allow the fog to dissipate by the early afternoon hours of Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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