Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Olmsted, IL
June 2, 2024 4:08 PM CDT (21:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:53 AM Moonset 4:11 PM |
FXUS63 KPAH 022027 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 327 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place through much of this week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms, mainly Monday through Wednesday.
- The storms on Monday will be capable of producing very heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will also be possible.
- High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
High pressure has allowed for dry conditions today, with the exception of a spotty light shower in the northeast this afternoon. Temperatures have risen to the upper 70s to mid-80s range. Some model guidance suggests minor visibility decreases tonight in the east.
Active weather begins tomorrow as a disturbance moves northeastward from Oklahoma. Model trends have been towards delaying start time, with SEMO getting showers and storms beginning during the afternoon hours. Showers and storms continue through the evening and overnight hours. CAMs show a fairly substantial spread regarding timing and location but somewhat agree on a semi-organized line near sunset or overnight, primarily affecting SEMO. HRRR PMMs suggest the potential for substantial rainfall in SEMO, and the Ozarks in particular. However, this largely comes from the 12Z HRRR and the NAMnest. The 18Z HRRR alters the location of heavier rainfall and is lower on top end amounts, while the NAMnest is an extremely wet outlier and most ambitious with shear that also seems to be trending closer to the other models as the 18Z data starts rolling in. Robust instability to 3000 J/kg will produce convection but, with shear around 20 kts or less (aside from the NAMnest), severe weather potential should be somewhat limited, making heavy rain and flooding issues the primary concern. Models weaken showers/storms that make it to eastern portions of the Quad State, so better potential for strong storms and rainfall will be in SEMO and nearby portions of IL/KY.
Due in large part to variation in handling of the late Monday to early Tuesday storms, models disagree on additional showers/storms later in the day Tuesday, either via a smaller scale disturbance or just delayed progression of the first system. A much clearer source of showers and storms will be ahead of the Wednesday frontal passage. Shear is a little better, but instability reduced, keeping storm severity potential fairly limited. Across the Monday-Wednesday time period, 1-2 inches of rainfall is likely, with higher amounts most likely to occur in SEMO.
Drier conditions move in for the end of the week as high pressure moves southeastward. Strong mid-level low pressure in the Great Lakes and high pressure in the Desert Southwest sets up northwesterly flow aloft. Models favor a track southwest of the Quad State for the primary NW to SE flow though a slight chance of precip returns for the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
MVFR cigs remain in the far northeast corner of the Quad State.
Cigs should mainly remain around 3500-5000 ft through the TAF period, with additional high clouds moving in from the west late. Variable 5 kt winds become calm overnight, then shift to southerly for tomorrow.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 327 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place through much of this week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms, mainly Monday through Wednesday.
- The storms on Monday will be capable of producing very heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will also be possible.
- High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
High pressure has allowed for dry conditions today, with the exception of a spotty light shower in the northeast this afternoon. Temperatures have risen to the upper 70s to mid-80s range. Some model guidance suggests minor visibility decreases tonight in the east.
Active weather begins tomorrow as a disturbance moves northeastward from Oklahoma. Model trends have been towards delaying start time, with SEMO getting showers and storms beginning during the afternoon hours. Showers and storms continue through the evening and overnight hours. CAMs show a fairly substantial spread regarding timing and location but somewhat agree on a semi-organized line near sunset or overnight, primarily affecting SEMO. HRRR PMMs suggest the potential for substantial rainfall in SEMO, and the Ozarks in particular. However, this largely comes from the 12Z HRRR and the NAMnest. The 18Z HRRR alters the location of heavier rainfall and is lower on top end amounts, while the NAMnest is an extremely wet outlier and most ambitious with shear that also seems to be trending closer to the other models as the 18Z data starts rolling in. Robust instability to 3000 J/kg will produce convection but, with shear around 20 kts or less (aside from the NAMnest), severe weather potential should be somewhat limited, making heavy rain and flooding issues the primary concern. Models weaken showers/storms that make it to eastern portions of the Quad State, so better potential for strong storms and rainfall will be in SEMO and nearby portions of IL/KY.
Due in large part to variation in handling of the late Monday to early Tuesday storms, models disagree on additional showers/storms later in the day Tuesday, either via a smaller scale disturbance or just delayed progression of the first system. A much clearer source of showers and storms will be ahead of the Wednesday frontal passage. Shear is a little better, but instability reduced, keeping storm severity potential fairly limited. Across the Monday-Wednesday time period, 1-2 inches of rainfall is likely, with higher amounts most likely to occur in SEMO.
Drier conditions move in for the end of the week as high pressure moves southeastward. Strong mid-level low pressure in the Great Lakes and high pressure in the Desert Southwest sets up northwesterly flow aloft. Models favor a track southwest of the Quad State for the primary NW to SE flow though a slight chance of precip returns for the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
MVFR cigs remain in the far northeast corner of the Quad State.
Cigs should mainly remain around 3500-5000 ft through the TAF period, with additional high clouds moving in from the west late. Variable 5 kt winds become calm overnight, then shift to southerly for tomorrow.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCIR CAIRO RGNL,IL | 11 sm | 13 min | N 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 64°F | 52% | 29.96 | |
| KPAH BARKLEY RGNL,KY | 18 sm | 15 min | calm | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 63°F | 51% | 29.95 |
Paducah, KY,
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