Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM   Moonset 3:47 PM

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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 917 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 69 degrees, off cleveland 62 degrees, and off erie 63 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 021359 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 959 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure moves through the southern Great Lakes today.
High pressure briefly returns tonight and Monday before a warm front lifts north Monday night. Low pressure will cross the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday and push a cold front through the local area Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers are starting to decrease in coverage while lifting to the northeast as the better support moves out of the area. We will see showers continue to decrease through the morning in the east, then see a gradual increase in showers activity this afternoon in NW Ohio as some weak instability develops within the broad cyclonic flow. Temperatures will be slower to warm in the east where showers linger longer and a thicker cloud deck will remain. The forecast for today remains on track.

Previous discussion...A shortwave trough axis and associated trough of surface low pressure are moving across the local area this morning. The shortwave will exit to the east by the mid- late afternoon hours. Modest ascent head of the shortwave trough axis (largely in the form of isentropic lift/warm air advection) is supporting fairly numerous light to briefly moderate showers. While the system is on a slow weakening trend showers will be fairly numerous ahead of the shortwave. A drying trend is expected from west to east as the shortwave shifts east. While this will lead to an increasingly drier forecast later this morning into this afternoon from west to east, convergence associated with the surface trough of low pressure will combine with modest destabilization of a moist low-level airmass to support isolated to scattered shower re-development across Northwest and North Central Ohio this afternoon, with this pop-up activity spreading into Northeast OH late this afternoon into this evening. This is enough to keep low POPs going into early this evening. Maintained a slight thunder mention generally west of I-77 this afternoon, though thunder potential will be limited by warming mid-levels and there's no severe wx concern. Much of the area will see 0.10" or less of additional rainfall today...though a few more moderate showers could produce highly localized amounts up to 0.50". There will be some limited breaks of sun by this afternoon, especially out west, with highs ranging from the upper 60s across PA and far eastern Ohio to the upper 70s along the I-75 corridor.

Lingering pop-up showers should fade fairly quickly with the setting of the sun this evening. Weak ridging surface and aloft will lead to a quiet forecast tonight and into Monday. With plentiful low-level moisture and light winds tonight fog development is a concern. There is some question over how quickly a broken low cloud deck erodes this evening, though where skies clear expect at least patchy fog to develop overnight
More widespread and dense fog is possible
given a radiation fog setup river valleys will be the greatest concern.
Otherwise, hi-res guidance generally likes the Mid Ohio region for potentially more widespread / dense fog, with some potential to leak into Northwest Ohio and interior portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA if clearing is more widespread. A weak shortwave moves through Monday afternoon and some hi-res models toy with popping a few showers along any lingering low-level convergence zones during the afternoon. Forecast soundings reveal warm and dry mid- levels on Monday and a majority of models remain dry. Given the lack of stronger forcing and arguments against rain held a dry forecast for the day. Lows tonight will generally settle into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Highs on Monday will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure departs to the east coast Monday night with a weak warm front lifting northeastward across the area on the backside of the departing high. Southerly flow ensues, with temperatures rising to the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon. Moisture content will be on the rise as well with dew points into the low to mid 60s on Tuesday. Some modest uncapped instability should develop Tuesday afternoon in response to increasing surface T/Td, and some models have convection developing to our west (i.e. Indiana) in advance of a shortwave trough lifting northeast across the state. This is a low predictability situation though because there is large spread in model guidance prediction of the shortwave trough evolution, which makes it uncertain when and where convection develops during the afternoon. Additionally, shear is weak, and MLCIN develops during the evening/overnight so even if convection develops out west, there's no guarantee it continues eastward into our forecast area.
For now, have gradually increasing low PoPs from west to east (generally in the 20-40% range) to account for this potential.

Meanwhile an upper-level negatively-tilted trough builds in from the west, with the trough axis extending southeastward to just west of the Great Lakes region Wednesday morning. Southerly flow continues to build the moisture within the warm sector, with dew points likely into the mid to upper 60s. As this trough approaches, this should contribute to moderate instability and convection developing within the warm sector during the afternoon/evening hours across the forecast area. Confidence is high in the occurrence of showers and thunderstorms areawide, so continued to gradually increased PoPs to 80-90%, primarily targeted towards a couple hours of showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours. Most model guidance have 25-40 knots of mid-level southwesterly flow, which should contribute to a low-end severe weather threat.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The upper-level low builds into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, remaining there through Saturday. The actual evolution of the upper- level has some spread but the overall trend and pattern of the forecast is fairly consistent with cooler than normal temperatures (talking highs around 70) and showery pattern. It's difficult to pinpoint when exactly are the best chances for showers but that will become more apparent as we get closer. GFS/CMC are cooler and more showers, while the ECMWF has the low centered a bit farther north with less precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Rain showers ahead of a weak area of low pressure are ongoing across most of the area this morning. These light to briefly moderate showers will exit east through early afternoon.
Isolated pop up showers are expected this afternoon, especially across Northwest and North Central Ohio. The risk for thunder is very low overall with just a slight chance for an isolated storm from CLE and CAK points west this afternoon. More widespread restrictions will come from ceilings. Widespread IFR to low MVFR have reached CAK and MFD points west. Expect lower ceilings to gradually spread east through this morning, though a drier low-level air mass in place ahead of the rain to the east and a downsloping south- southeast flow makes IFR potential more uncertain the farther east one goes. Maintained a period of IFR for at least a few hours this morning at TOL, FDY and MFD.
Can't rule it out at CAK and perhaps YNG/CLE, though confidence is lower and ultimately kept them MVFR with this cycle.
Ceilings should rise slightly this afternoon with a bit of heating, though we likely hang on to MVFR at most sites. An exception will be ERI where the lowest ceilings will likely occur this afternoon. While we try to scatter out the stratus this evening, a moist low-level airmass and light winds will encourage fog and mist development at several sites tonight.
Some uncertainty on if the stratus persist long enough to limit the coverage of dense fog, though went fairly aggressive at most locations in this TAF cycle given decent guidance agreement.

Winds will be out of the south at 6 to 14 knots today, becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook...Thunderstorms and associated non-VFR possible at times Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE
A weak low moving east across Lake Erie has resulted in brief 15-20 knot winds in the western basin early this morning, though this should rapidly taper off though as this low dissipates and fills in, being replaces by a high pressure ridge by tonight. Afternoon lake breeze develops on Monday, with some locally enhanced onshore flow likely in the immediate nearshore, especially in the western basin with east to northeast flow. Southerly flow prevails on Tuesday and Wednesday, with speeds possibly approaching 15-20 knots during the day Wednesday before a cold front crosses the lake Wednesday evening/night. West to southwest flow likely to develop behind the front with periods of 15-20 knots possible. Some small craft advisory and beach hazard statements may be needed at some points Wednesday night onward.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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