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FXUS62 KGSP 132307 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 707 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions will continue into the weekend as a hot upper level ridge builds into our region from the west. There may be a brief afternoon ridgetop shower or storm in the mountains. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected early next week as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday, then the heat will continue into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 701 PM Thursday: A quiet evening is in store as dry mid-level air and subsidence suppress convection yet again. Any lingering afternoon cumulus clouds will dissipate over the next couple hours as heating wanes. The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes were needed.

Decent cooling conds setup overnight, but temps will likely be held a cat or so abv normal due to abv normal temps this afternoon. An even more suppressive environ develops tomorrow as the upper ridge builds in from the west. A fly in the ointment will be a shot of mlvl energy traversing the flow possibly combining with a weak sfc bndry and producing isol showers east of the mtns. The hires models diverge with the degree of coverage Fri afternoon and have sided with the more conservative parings which maintains better run-run continuity and seems more reasonable considering the synoptic pattern. Thus, will anticipate afternoon ridgetop convection once again, but likely more isol and short lived activity than today.
Highs Fri will respond to the increasing dynamic warming with max temps reaching the l90s east of the mtns and u80s across the mtn valleys.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

1) Isolated Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorms Possible Saturday

2) Better Chance for Diurnal Showers and Thunderstorms on Sunday

3) Hot Temperatures Stick Around in the Mountain Valleys and East of the Mountains Each Afternoon

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: An upper anticyclone will gradually build into the Southeast through the short term. Meanwhile at the sfc, a dry and weak cold front will track across the forecast area Friday evening into daybreak Saturday. No precipitation or increase in cloud cover is really expected with such dry air in place aloft. The southern periphery of a sfc high pushing east across the eastern Great Lakes region will graze the forecast area on Saturday keeping mostly dry conditions around. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southwest NC mountains Saturday afternoon. Capped PoPs to slight chance (15%-17%) for now.
The center of high pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast Sunday afternoon but the southwestern periphery of the sfc high will continue to extend into the forecast area through the rest of the short term. This will allow SE'ly winds to develop, leading to return flow off the Atlantic. With this influx of Atlantic moisture expected, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday. Have chance PoPs across the western zones (15%-35%), with the highest PoPs confined to the mountain zones. Temps will be around 4-6 degrees above climo through the period, with highs rebounding into the upper 80s/lower 90s in the mountain valleys and east of the mountains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Messages:

1) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue

2) Hot Temperatures Continue East of the Mountains

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: The upper anticyclone will be centered over the Carolinas Monday into Monday night before gradually lifting northward into the Northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night. The center of the anticyclone will remain over Pennsylvania and New york Wednesday into Thursday. At the sfc, the southwestern periphery of a sfc high, located in the western Atlantic, will continue to extend into the Southeast through the period. With lingering SE'ly return flow off the Atlantic remaining in place, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will linger throughout the period, mainly across the mountain zones. However, the latest global models are coming in drier after Monday. Thus, have the highest PoPs (chance, 25%-43%) over the mountains on Monday, with lower PoPs (slight chance, 15%-22%) the rest of the period. Temps will remain around 2- 5 degrees above climo through the period, with highs rebounding into the upper 80s/lower 90s east of the mountains each afternoon.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Afternoon cumulus is quickly dissipating with loss of daytime heating with mostly clear skies expected through the overnight. Another afternoon cumulus field will develop tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light to calm overnight becoming light again tomorrow out of the west/northwest.

Outlook: Surface high pressure remains over the area through the end of the week with minimal chance for convection and associated flight restrictions.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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