Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM   Moonset 2:21 PM

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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 322 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning - ..small craft should exercise caution after 10 am edt - .
Today - East winds near 20 knots, decreasing 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 5 feet at 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, then a slight chance of showers. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, then a slight chance of showers. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 010601 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 201 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
Northeast winds at 4-8kts inland and 10-12kts along the coast are forecast to increase after 12Z-15Z with gusts to 20-26kts this afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish into the late evening and overnight hours from the east. SCT clouds (potentially BKN mainly near the coast) at around 040-050kft are forecast this afternoon.

UPDATE
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

- Most areas to remain dry through Saturday. A few sprinkles possible overnight, with isolated showers along the Treasure Coast.

- Deteriorating boating conditions through tomorrow.

- Somewhat better chances for showers and storms from Sunday into early next week.

Another quiet evening of weather across East Central Florida. RAP analysis indicates an initial surge of drier air is sweeping southward into the area, leading to more comfortable humidity for the end of May. However, a bit of moisture remains trapped near the top of the PBL, which could be enough to spark a few onshore- moving sprinkles overnight near the coast. Additional modified continental air reaches the district Saturday, leading to a mainly dry forecast. The exception to this will be the southern Treasure Coast where PW values remain just high enough to support 20% shower/storm chances in the afternoon.

Sprawling high pressure continues to pass by to our north. As it does, expect continued breezy conditions near the coast overnight, holding temperatures in the mid/upper 70s along and east of US-1. Elsewhere, upper 60s/low 70s will be commonplace.
East breezes will likely gust from 15-25 mph again on Saturday.
Highs will warm into the mid 80s beachside to near 90 from the Kissimmee Basin into Lake County.

You will find patchy smoke in the digital forecast south of Holopaw (Osceola Co) and near Palm City (Martin Co) due to nearby wildfires. This may cause locally reduced visibility; slow down and increase following distance if you encounter smoke while driving. Breezy and dry conditions could cause any active fires to quickly spread on Saturday.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
(Through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

For the weekend, high pressure will push SE and off the Carolina coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer Easterly and remain quite breezy/gusty on Sat, even windy at the coast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient eases as the high moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to the area so not quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will remain in place, there should be enough moisture across southern sections to produce isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving onshore the Treasure coast. Models are trying to hint at a little moisture even pushing further northwestward on Sun, but remain skeptical. Max temps will be very close to seasonable with mid to upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. But the persistent onshore flow will produce smaller diurnal temp ranges along the coast, keeping min temps there in the mid 70s, possibly upper 70s. Next week, the dry airmass will gradually modify with rain/storm chances slowly increasing 20-40 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue- Thu. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb, returning to the mid 90s interior Wed-Thu.

MARINE
Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Overnight...Small Craft Advisory now in effect for all local waters from Brevard Co southward as winds are freshening due to a tightening pressure gradient. ENE winds 15-20 KT with seas building to 3-5 FT nearshore, 4-6 FT offshore. Slight chance for a shower.

Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sat-Tue...High pressure will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north Florida into early next week. The pressure gradient will remain tightest across the southern waters and will support 20 kts through Sat so continue a Small Craft Adv (SCA) south of Sebastian Inlet until 02Z/10PM Sat night, but will end SCA across the Brevard waters at 14Z/10AM. Conditions gradually improve Sun through Tue as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 kts. Seas reach 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape on Sat. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft Tue.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Sat-Tue...The breezy/gusty onshore (ENE/E) flow will continue into the weekend as the pgrad remains fairly tight. Shower and lightning storm chances will remain below normal through the weekend. The best chance for convection will be along the Treasure Coast. Min RH values will hover near 35% across interior sections each afternoon while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast.
The increase in wind speeds will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersion values and combined with increasingly dry fuels, will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions thru at least Sat across all of east central Florida. Any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly. Scattered showers and storms should gradually increase in coverage next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 85 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 20 MCO 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 40 20 MLB 85 73 86 73 / 10 20 50 30 VRB 86 72 86 72 / 10 20 50 40 LEE 89 70 91 72 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 30 10 ORL 88 71 90 72 / 0 0 40 10 FPR 86 71 86 71 / 10 30 50 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575.

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Canova Beach
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Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:40 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canova Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Patrick Air Force Base
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Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:29 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:56 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:13 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Patrick Air Force Base, Florida, Tide feet

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