Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 4:27 PM   Moonset 1:57 AM

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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 228 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Through 7 pm - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Wed night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Thu - SE winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot.

ANZ600 228 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains in place this week with generally benign marine conditions, apart from briefly elevated southeast winds later this afternoon and evening. NExt rain chances don't look to come until early next week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 181826 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 226 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure currently off the New England coast slowly shifts south through the end of the week. A very warm and dry pattern will continue this week, with very hot weather expected this weekend with widespread mid to upper 90s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message: - Quiet night with temperatures dropping back to a comfortable low to mid 60s (except mid-upper 60s at the coast).

Another quiet night. With dew points in the low to mid 60s, expect temps to drop back into a lower to mid 60s inland and mid-upper 60s near the coast. May be some higher clouds moving in overnight, but they should not impact the low temperatures much.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages: - Pleasant weather with seasonably warm temperatures on Wed and Thursday.

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

Very pleasant days on Wed and Thu with the high pressure ridge in control. No chances for precipitation with seasonably warm temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 80s with relatively low humidity (dew points forecast in the lower 60s).
Slightly warmer on Thursday as the sfc ridge shifts southward leading to 850mb temps being about a degree warmer than Wed. Still, temps will top out in the lower 90s with still relatively low dew points in the low-mid 60s.

The heat will start to build on Friday as the sfc and upper ridge axis shift further south, leading to the warmer 850mb temps currently over the Ohio Valley to move over the middle Atlantic.
This will help winds to become north southwesterly especially inland helping to warm the entire region, but especially inland areas.
Have trended the Friday temperatures up perhaps a degree or so, but still in the mid 90s in central VA and lower 90s closer to the coast and in NE NC.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

-Building heat through the weekend with dangerous heat index values approaching 105F or greater by Sunday. Dangerous heat possible on Monday as well.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered showers or storms on Sun night into Tuesday, but the confidence is low for widespread rainfall.

Latest NBM guidance suggests temps a degree or two warmer Saturday and Sunday, especially in central Virginia. This seems to be in line with the other ensemble guidance that shows about a 50% probability of 100F or greater temps by Sunday. Although the ongoing dryness will likely keep dew points from becoming too extreme, even dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 yield heat index values of around 105F with WBGT values in the 85 to 87 range. These type of values would need a heat advisory for much of the area for the upcoming weekend. Confidence for temps on Monday is lower than the weekend due to the potential for precip and more clouds. It may be just a tad cooler given increased clouds and perhaps a few storms but if there are less clouds then we could make a run at 100F on Monday as well.

Otherwise, rainfall continues to look hard to come by for the next 7 days. Will maintain slight chance or small chance PoPs for Sun night through Tuesday as the frontal boundary slows down or stalls over the region. Unfortunately moisture will be very hard to come by but with the boundary around there will be enough lift for at least a few showers/storms especially on Monday. Many places unfortunately will not see much rain. In fact, the Grand Ensemble (EPS/GEFS/Canadian Ens) probability of at least 0.25" of 72 hr rainfall ending 12z Tuesday is only about 30 percent, while the probability of less than 0.10" is nearly 40 percent.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Afternoon cumulus around 4-6kft this afternoon and again on Wednesday but no operational impacts expected. SE winds of 5-10 kt.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

MARINE
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA winds expected this week, though a few gusts to around 20 kt are possible during the afternoon hours.

- Moderate rip current risk at Ocean City and Assateague beaches today. Moderate rip risk expected to persist at all local beaches for the next couple of days.

Winds remain east/southeasterly across the marine area this afternoon, and will persist as such through most of the week as high pressure sits overhead. Scattered spots in the lower Bay could see slightly elevated gusts to 20-22kt this afternoon, though sustained winds are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds. Seas are 2-3ft with waves of 1-2ft, and these conditions are expected to persist, aside from a brief period of 2-3ft waves possible in the lower Bay this afternoon as the wind increases. The flow becomes more southerly Friday and into the weekend as the area of high pressure drifts south. Winds may increase on Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between the high pressure and an approaching trough. As of this forecast package, the best chance for any SCA thresholds would come on Sunday as the trough pushes through the area. This potentially may also bring our first rain chances later Sunday into Monday.

The rip current risk is moderate across northern beaches and low across southern beaches today. A moderate risk is forecast at all beaches Wednesday. Swell energy and wave periods increase some for Thursday and Friday, suggesting a continuation of at least moderate rip risks.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 12:46 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:20 PM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots

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