Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 7:48 PM   Moonset 4:49 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1227 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.Fri night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1227 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will retreat farther offshore today and tonight. A cold front will approach late this week, stalling north of the area this weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 231351 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 951 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain off the SE coast today. Shower and thunderstorm chances will grow as a series of upper level disturbances move across the region Friday through Saturday, while a front stalls just north of the area. Inland temperatures will rise into the lower 90s by Sunday, then cool back towards normal by Wednesday behind a cold front.

UPDATE
Sunny skies across the eastern Carolinas are allowing temperatures to jump quickly this morning. Cirrus observed across AL/GA and the southern Appalachians is moving eastward and will reach the area later today, joined by some daytime cumulus inland of the seabreeze front. The going forecast looks good and only minor tweaks to temperatures and winds were made based on the HRRR's seabreeze timing.

A warm air cap between 6k-10kft aloft should inhibit deep convection through the day, but the erosion of this cap tonight should allow inland showers and storms to make it down this way. Look at falling 700 mb temperatures from almost any model to see this process occur with the approach of a shortwave from the west.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Bermuda High lingers off the coast today and tonight while the pattern aloft transitions from weak shortwave ridge to more progressive flow. A couple weak shortwaves move across the area today, but these don't appear strong enough to overcome lingering mid-level subsidence depicted in forecast soundings. A slightly stronger shortwave moving east-northeast along the NC/SC border will have the best chance at firing off convection this evening. It arrives while there is still some surface based instability in the area and the mid-level subsidence is weakening. Not sure much if any convection will extend south into SC, but the I-95 corridor could see some isolated to scattered convection with this shortwave late in the day. Any storms will translate east overnight. Strength and coverage will decrease as storms move into a less favorable environment. Temperatures above climo continue today and tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Although there are discrepancies in the details, models continue to signal increasing potential for showers/tstms during the day Friday with arrival of weak shortwave energy aloft. A second round of shortwave energy arrives Friday night and lingers across the area into Saturday. Again, there are differences in model depictions, but potential for scattered showers/tstms will persist through Saturday.
Convection should trend down Saturday night as the trough moves offshore, and mid-level ridge builds across the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Models continue to trend towards a drier day Sunday with increasing subsidence associated with mid-level ridging. However can't rule out convective potential altogether, given the relative low amplitude of the ridge aloft, along with continued strong surface-based instability as temperatures max out 89-92 away from the beaches. Embedded ripples in westerly flow aloft will promote scattered convection Monday into Tuesday ahead of a 500 mb trough, which will sweep across the mid MS River Valley and lift to the Great Lakes by midweek. The associated surface front will cross the area Tuesday night, minimizing rain chances Wednesday, and bringing temps back down toward seasonable norms.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR will dominate today before convection moving in from the west late in the day becomes a concern. Currently appears NC terminals have the best chance, but cannot rule out storms affecting at least some of the SC terminals. Storms may linger into the early morning hours before gradually dissipating as the move east. IFR from low clouds and fog will be a concern in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, especially if evening convection does develop.

Extended Outlook...Morning low clouds/fog Friday morning.
Afternoon showers/storms through at least Monday.

MARINE
Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow across the waters today and tonight. Some diurnal enhancement of the pressure gradient is likely with heating, which will lead to a bump in wind speeds in the afternoon and evening. Solid 15 kt is possible closer to shore late in the day, before speeds drop back around 10 kt overnight. Seas will be 2 ft or less today and tonight, with highest seas found in the evening. A southerly wind wave around 4 seconds will be dominant with a weak easterly swell also present.

Friday night through Monday...SW flow will persist for the most part through the period, as high pressure off the coast remains the prominent synoptic driver. Scattered convection will be possible, particularly Saturday evening, which could result in a temporary wind shift to the NW. SW flow will increase in magnitude Monday as low pressure spins across the Great Lakes, tightening the gradient across the coastal waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Dunn Sound
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Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
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