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FXUS62 KFFC 011807 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 207 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

At a glance:

- Dreary weekend ahead

- Slightly unseasonably cool

Looking aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough making its way across the Deep South and Southeast will serve as the catalyst for lingering chance (40-50%) PoPs through the weekend. Showers were slow to spread across the state line this morning, due in part to dry dewpoints (in the 40s to 50s) across the majority of the forecast area -- this morning's 01/12Z sounding's surface dewpoint of 54F is at approximately the 25th percentile per the SPC Sounding Climatology. At any rate, expect coverage to remain fairly patchy and sparse through the afternoon, with less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall forecast to fall anywhere within the CWA North and central Georgia are contained within SPC's General Thunder outlook, so cannot rule out an isolated embedded thunderstorm. However, meaningful destabilization is unlikely due to the thicker shield of clouds accompanying the push of moisture. Highs today will be slightly cool for early June, especially across western Georgia, in the lower-70s (west of I-85) to 80s (east of I-85).

Overnight, expect another wave of showers and light rain associated with the mid-level trough axis to move northward and eastward across the midsection of the state. Coverage is likely to be higher (relatively) when compared with today's activity, but still not likely to exceed a quarter of an inch of rainfall. Lows tonight look to drop into the upper-50s to 60s.

When the aforementioned wave of showers begins to taper off around daybreak, a brief lull is expected until rain chances return -- again -- for the afternoon. The entire state is blanketed in General Thunder chances for tomorrow, and with more breaks in cloud cover and thus instability (in the 500-1500 J/kg range), activity is likely to be more convective in nature, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected. With more insolation in the forecast, highs should be a few degrees warmer on Sunday, in the mid-70s to mid-80s.

96

LONG TERM
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorm chances will be with us each day next week, with the greatest rain potential anticipated on Thursday.

- Warm and muggy conditions can be expected through at least Thursday.

Monday through Friday:

As we progress through the upcoming workweek, guidance from the EPS and GEFS indicate a transition from near zonal flow aloft (with weak shortwaves mixed in) to a more amplified pattern (ridge in the West and troughing in the East) over the Lower 48. These changes should be induced by a seasonally strong upper level jet and trough nudging into the Pacific Northwest early in the week. Meanwhile along the east coast a surface high (over the Mid Atlantic today) shift east, allowing southerly flow to increase moisture advection in Georgia.
By Monday and Tuesday surface dewpoints should return to the mid and upper 60s, leading to muggy conditions. Toss in the nearly zonal flow aloft, a lack of well defined forcing and strong diurnal heating and we can anticipated isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in Georgia during the afternoon and evening hours both days. Limited shear and marginal instability both days suggests little to no risk for severe weather at this time. As we move toward the second half of the week a developing trough over the Great Lakes should have an increasingly large impact on our weather. On Wednesday this may mean greater afternoon and evening storm chances across northern Georgia. Then on Thursday a cold frontal passage appears probable. Both the EPS and GEFS have latched on to this frontal passage, suggesting it will be our best chance for widespread rainfall this week. Though some spread remains in the guidance, more than 90 percent of the EPS and GEFS members spit our rain in the Atlanta area on Thursday. Thursday also looks like the day most likely to develop a risk for severe weather. Mainly due to higher instability and the potential for the the frontal passage to promote more organized convection. Drier air may move in on Friday and limit the rain potential. This is however dependent on the strength and timing of the frontal passage Thursday.

Temperature trends for the upcoming week will generally follow the pattern noted above. The warmest temperatures can be expected Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. On all three days highs should reach the upper 80s in northern Georgia. A mix of lower 90s and upper 80s is favored in central Georgia. The potential for a frontal passage, widespread cloud cover and rainfall is leading to a significant amount of spread in the high temperature forecast on Thursday.
Guidance from the NBM shows a 10 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles, suggesting only 50 percent confidence that the afternoon high in Atlanta will be between 80 and 90 degrees. A drier airmass and more sunshine may help the region level out in the 80s on Friday, though spread remains predictably high for 6 days in the future.

Albright

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Several waves of pcpn likely thru the TAF pd. Impactful -RA chcs are low for northern TAF sites this afternoon, and VCSH should be sufficient thru 21-22Z. Best chcs for -RA come from 05-10Z tonight and may be accompanied by MVFR cigs/vsbys in BR. Low-MVFR cigs are psbl beginning around daybreak, with a return to VFR by early aftn. TSRA chcs return Sun aftn. Winds will be out of the SE today with low-end gusts to 15-18kts psbl thru 00-01Z before tapering off and then shifting to the SE between 17-18Z tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium confidence all elements.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 64 80 64 86 / 40 50 30 20 Atlanta 65 82 66 87 / 50 50 20 20 Blairsville 58 74 59 80 / 50 60 20 20 Cartersville 63 82 64 87 / 60 50 20 20 Columbus 67 84 67 89 / 60 50 20 20 Gainesville 64 78 64 84 / 50 50 30 20 Macon 67 84 65 88 / 20 50 20 20 Rome 64 82 64 88 / 60 50 10 20 Peachtree City 65 83 64 88 / 50 50 20 20 Vidalia 68 85 67 88 / 10 50 20 30

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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