Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hayes, LA
June 18, 2024 1:07 AM CDT (06:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:21 PM Moonset 2:18 AM |
GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 342 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Wednesday evening - .
Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely early this evening, then a chance of showers late this evening and overnight.
Tuesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday - East winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 342 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis - Potential tropical cyclone number 1 in the southwestern gulf of mexico will gradually move west-northwest toward the eastern mexico coast through Thursday. Deep moisture will be associated with this system that will bring widespread shower and isolated Thunderstorm activity. A strengthening gradient between the disturbance and high pressure to the northeast will generate moderate to strong east to southeast winds through mid week. The prolonged fetch will allow for a significant increase in wave heights and swells, as well as an increased risk for coastal flooding.
Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KLCH 180453 AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1153 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 is expected to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico and into eastern Mexico by Wednesday night. The system is expected to overall stay on sloppy and elongated side, and this will keep a rather large wind field and moisture on the north side of the system. Therefore, portions of the forecast area will have some impacts as far as heavy rainfall potential and coastal flooding, and for the coastal waters strong winds and hazardous seas.
A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect for lower southeast Texas from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts, and also what may be more concerning will be the rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour that will quickly cause urban and street flooding.
A Coastal Flood Warning will be in effect for Cameron Parish and Jefferson County with tides around 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 2.0 and 3.0 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.
A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes with tides between 1 and 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 1.5 and 2.0 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.
A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for southern Calcasieu Parish and southern Orange County around Sabine and Calcasieu Lake with tides around 1 foot above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 1.0 and 1.5 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the coastal waters for easterly winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots and seas from 7 to 14 feet.
If PTC 1 becomes more compact and stronger near the center then we may see less impacts for the forecast area.
Rua
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Initial moisture plume will move across for the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, and this will allow for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms that will produce brief tropical downpours and wind gusts around 35 mph. This activity will begin to decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
On Tuesday, best deep tropical moisture plume around the large circulation of PTC 1 will move into lower southeast Texas and this area will have the higher rain chances along with higher rainfall rates. PWAT values will be in the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along with MRH over 90 percent, so definitely tropical downpours.
With the long fetch and duration of the easterly winds, Ekman spiral affect will help pile water on the coast allowing for high tides that may bring some flooding during high tide times late at night into the morning hours. Also, with water piling along the coast, this will probably hinder proper drainage from main riverstems that combined with the heavy rainfall will also increase the flash flood threat.
On Wednesday, as the system moves further west, the heavy rain threat will also move further to the west. Should be enough moisture hanging around along with a weakness aloft to keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Rua
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
At the start of the longterm period, high pressure is moving in aloft and surface ridge starts building over the sern US from the ern seaboard. A final hurrah of elevated PoPs are expected for at least some of the area on Thursday with tropical disturbance spinning out in sern Texas. Moisture plume still situated in south Louisiana consisting of PWATs in the 1.70 to 1.90 inches will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the daytime hours.
This time yesterday, guidance brought a weak erly trof across the northern Gulf causing an increase in rain chances over the next weekend. Now, guidance has a stronger sfc ridge building in from the east into Friday, causing a downward trend in diurnally driven PoPs into Saturday. The brief period of lower PoPs makes some sense considering the relatively drier airmass moving in with the ridge.
There remains the chance of a weak erly trof or low pressure center moving near Florida late in the weekend which would degrade the sfc high and allow PoPs to flood back in late Sunday and Monday.
Forecaster confidence in this solution is low to medium and thus broad changes to this extent of the forecast are very possible. For now, the NBM's PoPs for the weekend into Monday appear to capture the latest forecast trend well enough and were left as is.
Temperatures rise steadily from Thursday to the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s.
11/Calhoun
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Other than pushing back the timing of potential lower ceilings per forecast soundings/time-height sections, no big changes to previous TAF thinking...
Local 88Ds show waning convection across the forecast area...
maintained VCTS mentions in the short term for the wrn terminals to account, but not really expecting much in the way of impacts next hour or so. Conflicting signals in the guidance about the arrival time of MVFR ceilings tonight...have elected to carry them beginning overnight, but confidence is low. Next round of precip should enter the area by late morning, with coverage spreading inland/intensifying through the afternoon.
25
MARINE
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is expected to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico into eastern Mexico by Wednesday night.
The system is expected to have a rather large wind field along with a tight gradient across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will provide moderate to strong and gusty east to southeast winds in the 20 to 30 knot sustained range with gusts up to 40 knots. This will also allow for wave heights to increase in the 7 to 14 foot range. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through mid week.
As long as the system stays weak, deep moisture will be out from the north side of the system, keeping widespread showers and storms through mid week.
Rua
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 85 71 90 / 30 50 20 30 LCH 74 85 75 89 / 50 80 50 70 LFT 76 86 76 91 / 50 70 30 60 BPT 76 86 75 88 / 40 80 70 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ073-074.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ241- 252>254.
TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ615.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ616.
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday evening for TXZ201-515-516-615-616.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1153 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 is expected to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico and into eastern Mexico by Wednesday night. The system is expected to overall stay on sloppy and elongated side, and this will keep a rather large wind field and moisture on the north side of the system. Therefore, portions of the forecast area will have some impacts as far as heavy rainfall potential and coastal flooding, and for the coastal waters strong winds and hazardous seas.
A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect for lower southeast Texas from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts, and also what may be more concerning will be the rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour that will quickly cause urban and street flooding.
A Coastal Flood Warning will be in effect for Cameron Parish and Jefferson County with tides around 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 2.0 and 3.0 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.
A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes with tides between 1 and 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 1.5 and 2.0 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.
A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for southern Calcasieu Parish and southern Orange County around Sabine and Calcasieu Lake with tides around 1 foot above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 1.0 and 1.5 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the coastal waters for easterly winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots and seas from 7 to 14 feet.
If PTC 1 becomes more compact and stronger near the center then we may see less impacts for the forecast area.
Rua
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Initial moisture plume will move across for the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, and this will allow for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms that will produce brief tropical downpours and wind gusts around 35 mph. This activity will begin to decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
On Tuesday, best deep tropical moisture plume around the large circulation of PTC 1 will move into lower southeast Texas and this area will have the higher rain chances along with higher rainfall rates. PWAT values will be in the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along with MRH over 90 percent, so definitely tropical downpours.
With the long fetch and duration of the easterly winds, Ekman spiral affect will help pile water on the coast allowing for high tides that may bring some flooding during high tide times late at night into the morning hours. Also, with water piling along the coast, this will probably hinder proper drainage from main riverstems that combined with the heavy rainfall will also increase the flash flood threat.
On Wednesday, as the system moves further west, the heavy rain threat will also move further to the west. Should be enough moisture hanging around along with a weakness aloft to keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Rua
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
At the start of the longterm period, high pressure is moving in aloft and surface ridge starts building over the sern US from the ern seaboard. A final hurrah of elevated PoPs are expected for at least some of the area on Thursday with tropical disturbance spinning out in sern Texas. Moisture plume still situated in south Louisiana consisting of PWATs in the 1.70 to 1.90 inches will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the daytime hours.
This time yesterday, guidance brought a weak erly trof across the northern Gulf causing an increase in rain chances over the next weekend. Now, guidance has a stronger sfc ridge building in from the east into Friday, causing a downward trend in diurnally driven PoPs into Saturday. The brief period of lower PoPs makes some sense considering the relatively drier airmass moving in with the ridge.
There remains the chance of a weak erly trof or low pressure center moving near Florida late in the weekend which would degrade the sfc high and allow PoPs to flood back in late Sunday and Monday.
Forecaster confidence in this solution is low to medium and thus broad changes to this extent of the forecast are very possible. For now, the NBM's PoPs for the weekend into Monday appear to capture the latest forecast trend well enough and were left as is.
Temperatures rise steadily from Thursday to the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s.
11/Calhoun
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Other than pushing back the timing of potential lower ceilings per forecast soundings/time-height sections, no big changes to previous TAF thinking...
Local 88Ds show waning convection across the forecast area...
maintained VCTS mentions in the short term for the wrn terminals to account, but not really expecting much in the way of impacts next hour or so. Conflicting signals in the guidance about the arrival time of MVFR ceilings tonight...have elected to carry them beginning overnight, but confidence is low. Next round of precip should enter the area by late morning, with coverage spreading inland/intensifying through the afternoon.
25
MARINE
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is expected to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico into eastern Mexico by Wednesday night.
The system is expected to have a rather large wind field along with a tight gradient across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will provide moderate to strong and gusty east to southeast winds in the 20 to 30 knot sustained range with gusts up to 40 knots. This will also allow for wave heights to increase in the 7 to 14 foot range. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through mid week.
As long as the system stays weak, deep moisture will be out from the north side of the system, keeping widespread showers and storms through mid week.
Rua
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 85 71 90 / 30 50 20 30 LCH 74 85 75 89 / 50 80 50 70 LFT 76 86 76 91 / 50 70 30 60 BPT 76 86 75 88 / 40 80 70 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ073-074.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ241- 252>254.
TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ615.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ616.
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday evening for TXZ201-515-516-615-616.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA | 15 mi | 49 min | 77°F | 92°F | 29.93 | |||
| BKTL1 | 17 mi | 49 min | 90°F | |||||
| CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA | 29 mi | 49 min | E 16G | 80°F | 86°F | 29.91 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCWF
NEW Forecast page for KCWF
toggle option: (graph/table)
NEW Forecast page for KCWF
Wind History graph: CWF
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lake Charles, Calcasieu River, Louisiana, Tide feet
Mermentau River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:47 AM CDT 2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:48 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:11 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:46 AM CDT 2.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:28 AM CDT 2.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:58 PM CDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:47 AM CDT 2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:48 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:11 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:46 AM CDT 2.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:28 AM CDT 2.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:58 PM CDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mermentau River entrance, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.2 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 2.1 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 2.1 |
| 11 am |
| 2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
Lake Charles, LA,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE