Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:02 AM   Moonset 3:22 PM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 434 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of this afternoon - S winds 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 434 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
shower and Thunderstorm chances return to the waters later today into the middle part of the workweek as a series of disturbances traverse the area. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters late tonight into Monday.

FXUS61 KLWX 021901 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 301 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS

Weak low pressure will track east from the Ohio River Valley tonight passing through the area Monday. Dry conditions briefly return Tuesday as weak high pressure builds back into the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday through Friday as a series of fronts cross the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Several shortwave disturbances will move eastward across the area tonight through Monday. This will lead to isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly west of the Blue Ridge early this afternoon before spreading east toward the metros this evening and into the overnight hours.
Southwest winds will run 5 to 15 mph with highs in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s. Any convection will wane late tonight into Monday due to upper level ridging nearby. Lows tonight will fall back into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Much of the same weather conditions are expected Monday as low pressure slowly pivots offshore. Still maintained slight chance to chance PoPs on Monday given the residual low-level moisture lingering around. Highs will continue to climb into the low 80s for the lower elevations with mid to upper 70s more common in the mountains. Overnight lows Monday night will drop down into the upper 50s to low 60s with mostly dry conditions.

Brief high pressure and weak upper level ridging will settle back over the region Tuesday. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary associated with the area of low pressure from earlier in the week will stall across southwest and eastern VA. The front will eventually become parallel with fairly zonal upper level flow aloft yielding additional shower and thunderstorm chances mainly in areas west of the Blue Ridge and south of the I-64 corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening. The bulk of Tuesday should remain dry given the weakened influence of high pressure overhead. Highs Tuesday will remain in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will fall back into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s as low level moisture returns.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A potent upper level trough will gradually dive south into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region Wednesday with a strong cold front cutting east through the Ohio River Valley and a warm front lifting north into the Mid-Atlantic region.

06z/12z guidance continues to show consistency in regards to a warm frontal boundary impacting the area midweek. The bulk of the synoptic and ensemble guidance shows a fairly progressive warm frontal boundary lifting into the area Wednesday afternoon and evening before pushing northward as the cold front advances east from the Ohio River Valley. Synoptic lift will increase as a result of the front combined with increasing low level moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to lend a hand in more organized and widespread convection across the region. Model soundings hint at this as well with reasonable instability available especially in areas south of I- 66/US-50 and west of I-81 where the front looks to reside.
Convection will likely linger into the overnight hours given the unstable airmass in place and incumbent cold front approaching from the Ohio River Valley.

The cold front looks to advance toward the Appalachians Thursday before crossing the area Thursday night into Friday. Models continue to show subtle differences in regards to the timing of the front and how much convection will occur. The probability for severe weather remains fairly low which aligns with current thinking from SPC, CSU learning machine probabilities, and CIPS analogues. We'll continue to monitor this threat in the coming days. What we do know is that shower and thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly widespread during this period especially within the afternoon and evening hours.

The front kicks east Friday, but is followed by a deep upper level low/trough kicking east from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.
Additional pieces of shortwave energy will likely pivot around the upper level low and the digging trough to produce additional chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.
Another cold front will pass through the area Sunday into Monday next week bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures will remain at or above average at the start of the period before dipping late in the week and into the weekend with the upper level trough nearby.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Brief MVFR cigs are possible late tonight into early along with the possibility of a few showers. Weak low pressure will approach from the Ohio River Valley touching off a few showers across the terminals this afternoon and evening. Have made a mention of VCSH at all terminals through 6z tonight. More of the same can be expected Monday afternoon and evening across the terminals. Once again winds will remain out of the south and southwest at 5 to 15 kts. Weak upper level ridging will reduce precipitation chances across the terminals Tuesday although an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. VFR conditions will continue to prevail as a result.

Higher chances for more widespread restrictions from shower and thunderstorm activity are possible during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday through Friday as multiple pieces of shortwave energy and a series of fronts push through.



MARINE

Sub-SCA level winds are expected through Monday as high pressure remains nearby. Winds will remain out of the south with intermittent gusts less than 15 knots. Spotty showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out due to weak low pressure slowly crossing the region.
Cannot completely rule out the need for a Special Marine Warning for any strong storms later today, but the magnitude and intensity should be below severe thunderstorm warning criteria.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be fairly isolated Tuesday with more organized convection set to impact the waters Wednesday and Thursday as multiple fronts push through. Special Marine Warnings cannot be ruled out during this period.



TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Anomalies will continue to rise over the next few days with increasing onshore flow allowing some of the more sensitive sites to be around action stage with an outside chance for minor tidal flooding.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Fort Washington
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Sun -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:38 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:15 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Washington, Maryland, Tide feet

Alexandria
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:01 AM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:53 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:30 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:53 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alexandria, Virginia, Tide feet

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