Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:31 PM   Moonset 1:30 AM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 747 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 934 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis - Breezy onshore flow and building seas will result in poor boating conditions into midweek. Marine conditions will deteriorate further Wednesday into Thursday as an approaching trough of low pressure reaches the southeastern u.s. Coast. Rain and lightning storm chances increase each day through late week as waves of moisture push westward across the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - East winds 15 to 20 knots.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, june 16th.
47 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 18 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 180129 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 929 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the week, resulting in a prolonged period of heat.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
All local convection has dissipated, and upstream trends suggest it is unlikely any storms in the Ohio Valley reach the local area. Since rain was a bit more sparse today than some guidance predicted, it's possible fog may also be more limited than what guidance suggests. The highest chance for some patches of fog will be west of the Blue Ridge and near the spots in the Virginia foothills that saw rain today. Low temperatures will be in the 60s for most areas, with lower 70s in the urban centers and along the bayshore.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Ridging will build aloft Tuesday into Wednesday. Subsidence could be weak enough to allow a few isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop near the Appalachians Tuesday afternoon, but most of the time/area will just be dry and hot.
Latest HRRR highlights the far western Alleghenies with an area of showers and thunderstorms drifting north along the periphery of the ridge.

Temperatures will trend upward a bit Tuesday, then decrease slightly Wednesday as the center of the ridge reorients itself to the north and low-level flow pivots to off relatively cooler water. Have issues a Heat Advisory for parts of western Maryland into the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia given the overlap of heat and high humidity. There remains uncertainty on how much mixing there will be tomorrow afternoon, especially towards Petersburg into the Shenandoah Valley, so have left out that area from the advisory for now.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Highly anomalous upper level ridging along the East Coast will slowly start to break down during the second half of the week, with flow aloft becoming more zonal in nature next weekend. As this occurs, the 850 hPa high to our northeast will also start to break down, allowing 850 hPa flow to shift from east-southeasterly on Thursday, to southwesterly next weekend. As 850 hPa flow gains a westerly component, an increasingly continental airmass will move over the region, leading to an increase in temperatures, despite the falling heights aloft.

The strong upper ridge should suppress any convection on Thursday and Friday, leading to sunny skies both days. As temperatures rise at the surface and cool aloft, chances for popup afternoon and evening thunderstorms will return this coming weekend. Thunderstorm activity looks to remain relatively isolated on Saturday in the absence of appreciable large scale forcing for ascent. By Sunday, height falls associated with a trough tracking through the Great Lakes may lead to greater chances for thunderstorms.

The main story through the long term period will be the heat.
Temperatures are expected to reach into the lower 90s on Thursday.
The hottest temperatures of this week's heat wave are expected to occur on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. High temperatures those days should make it into the mid-upper 90s, with around 100 possible in some spots. Overnight lows will also increase from the upper 60s to near 70 on Thursday night, to the mid-upper 70s by Saturday night.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the time through mid week. Did add a brief mention of BR at MRB late tonight based on good agreement in guidance...although there is some uncertainty since it didn't rain in this area today. HRRR probabilities indicate a chance for low ceilings to develop with a more notable onshore wind component late Tuesday night.

Winds will generally be southerly to southeasterly at 6-12 kts with occasional daytime gusts to around 18 kts. Eastern terminals likely experience some river/bay breeze influence during the afternoon and early evening hours each day.

VFR conditions and southerly winds are expected at the terminals on Thursday and Friday.

MARINE
South to southeast winds will prevail through much of the upcoming week. Southerly channeling combined with bay/river breeze enhancements likely result in SCA level gusts each afternoon and evening. Based on latest guidance, did extend tonight's advisory through 6 AM Tuesday. Otherwise, dry and hot weather is expected through the week.

Low-end SCA level winds appear possible in channeled southerly flow during the afternoon/evening hours of Thursday and Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent southerly flow continues, and tidal anomalies are hovering near one to one and a half feet above normal. This is enough to result in near minor flooding, particularly during the overnight high tide cycle near Annapolis the next couple of days. Have issued an advisory for tonight's cycle at Annapolis.
DC SW Waterfront and Havre de Grace will also be close to advisory thresholds.

CLIMATE
Hot temperatures are expected much of this coming week and especially this coming weekend. We could see a few records broken on Tuesday, but the hottest days appear to be Friday through Sunday when several records could be in jeopardy. Below is a list of record high temperatures for June 18th, 21st, and 22nd, the year the record was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days. RERs are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference.

Tuesday Jun 18th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 97F (1944) 93F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 94F (2018+) 93F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1957+) 92F Martinsburg (MRB) 99F (1943) 93F Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (2014+) 94F Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1957) 88F Hagerstown (HGR) 95F (1957) 94F

Friday Jun 21st Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2012) 97F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1988) 98F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (2012+) 96F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1931) 95F Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1933) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1988) 91F Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1923) 97F

Saturday Jun 22nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 101F (1988) 99F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 99F (1988) 99F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (1988) 98F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1933) 96F Charlottesville (CHO) 101F (1933) 99F Annapolis (NAK) 101F (1988) 93F Hagerstown (HGR) 100F (1988) 97F

+ indicates that value has been reached on multiple years, with the year displayed being the most recent.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ003-502.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for WVZ051>053-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-538- 539-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537- 540-541-543.

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Bellevue
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:30 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:00 PM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:46 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bellevue, D.C., Tide feet

Key Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:56 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Key Bridge, D.C., Tide feet

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