Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 4:21 AM   Moonset 8:16 PM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 734 Am Edt Thu Jun 6 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this morning, then showers and numerous tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Mon - NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 734 Am Edt Thu Jun 6 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
shower and Thunderstorm chances will persists through today before a cold front pushes across the waters tonight. A brief dry period is possible on Friday as weak high pressure builds in. A weak cold front approaches the waters Sunday. Additional small craft advisories may be needed for a brief time this weekend.

FXUS61 KLWX 060801 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 401 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather continues through this evening as a cold front moves across the area. Dry conditions Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds over the region. A slow moving upper trough approaches the area from the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, leading to more unsettled conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front currently over the OH valley will move across our area today, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The early morning showers and few embedded storms in WV and western PA will move into the Alleghenies by sunrise. Not expecting any strong storms, though some locally heavy rainfall is possible.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is going to focus along and east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon, though a few strong storms could also develop in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Morning cloud cover is expected to quickly dissipate, allowing for good diurnal heating and destabilization to take place. Temps this afternoon reach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points still in the lower 70s. The atmosphere remains very moist as PWATs hover around 2.0" through the afternoon.

Most of the high res models indicate a broken line of thunderstorms developing along the front as it reaches I-81, but especially as it moves east of the Blue Ridge where the better instability will be.
Deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should be enough to allow some organized strong to severe convection to get going. SPC currently has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, though that could be upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas east of the Blue Ridge later this morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat from storms. Faster storm motion should prevent any significant flooding issues from occurring, though there will be quick downpours in the stronger storms.

The front and line of storms push east of I-95 by sunset, then any lingering showers behind the front dissipate by late evening. Dry conditions overnight as lows settle in the mid to upper 50s along/west of I-81 and low to mid 60s to the east.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Dry conditions expected Friday and Saturday as large surface high pressure moves across the region. A large upper trough remains enough to our north through Saturday afternoon, but starts to dip south closer to our area Saturday night. This could bring a few showers to the Alleghenies for the second half of the weekend.

Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level trough is expected to remain over the area for the duration of the extended with the main feature of interest being a strong cut-off low descending into the Northeast. Guidance has come into better agreement in recent runs, consistently taking the upper low towards Maine with a shortwave digging into the Mid-Atlantic behind it with an associated cold front. The system has trended drier overall, the front starved of moisture as it swings through the area on Sunday. Sunday still has the best chance for precip of the extended, with PoPs 30-40%. The focus of diurnal shower and t- storm activity remains the northwestern portions of the CWA to start, before extending southeast across the area through the afternoon.

Some lingering showers are possible on Monday along the Alleghenies.
Tuesday currently looks drier, but there is some uncertainty regarding a shortwave diving south into the region behind the primary upper low as it departs. Some guidance keeps it to our east with weak upper level ridging building in over us behind it, but solutions that bring the shortwave to us could bring a few showers.
The air mass in the wake of the cold front appears fairly dry though, so currently appears there won't be much moisture to act on.

Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Sunday cool into the low 70s to low 80s behind the cold front on Monday, then gradually warm through the week. Lows will generally be in the 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front will slowly move across the area today, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to most terminals this afternoon. Ahead of the front, early morning showers are likely at MRB. Some low clouds causing MVFR CIGs are possible this morning, though confidence is low in widespread low stratus.

Any strong thunderstorm this afternoon could produce wind gusts in excess of 35 knots. TEMPO groups will likely be added to the TAFs in later updates as confidence increases for thunderstorm impacts.

Dry conditions this evening behind the cold front as southerly winds shift to the west. After that, VFR conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west.

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected Sunday into early next week but showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening could bring restrictions to the terminals. The late weekend system has been trending drier overall, so the potential for this appears to be decreasing. MRB and CHO are the most likely to see precip Sunday. NW winds could gust 15-20 kts on Sunday. Showers could linger into Monday but likely stay west of all terminals.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory continues through mid morning for the middle Chesapeake Bay as winds gust to around 20-23 knots. Elsewhere, gusts of 15-18 knots are possible.

Southwest to west winds this afternoon around 10 knots. A slow moving cold front will cross the waters late afternoon into the evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Special Marine Warnings are likely needed for strong storms capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 35 knots.

High pressure builds into the region from the west Friday into Saturday. West winds are likely to remain below SCA criteria.

Westerly winds on Sunday turn northwest behind a cold front. Winds over the waters are expected to stay below SCA criteria. Showers and thunderstorms on Sunday could bring stronger gusts to the waters in the afternoon.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With a steady southerly flow in place across the region, tidal anomalies have been on the increase. Elevated water levels will continue through this morning's high tide cycle, where Annapolis could even approach Moderate flood stage. A cold front crosses the area early today, with the resulting west winds causing tidal anomalies to drop by this evening/tonight.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ508.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ530>533- 537>541.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534- 543.

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Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C., Tide feet

Reagan National Airport
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Thu -- 02:49 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:17 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reagan National Airport, Washington, D.C., Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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