Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 9:08 PM Moonrise 5:25 AM   Moonset 9:57 PM

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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0018.000000t0000z-240605t2215z/ 503 Pm Edt Wed Jun 5 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4294 8245 4322 8256 4377 8265 4391 8274 4418 8226 4359 8212 time - .mot - .loc 2102z 237deg 25kt 4385 8250 4354 8237 4302 8241

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 071115 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 715 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy today with westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph and high temperatures topping out around 70 degrees. Scattered showers mainly across the Thumb.

- Showers are likely (50-70%) to spread across the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. A rumble of thunder is possible south.

- Cool conditions early next week are followed by a warming trend back into the 80s by late in the week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail today while a low pressure over the northern Great Lakes maintains influence over the region bringing mid/high clouds to start the TAF period. Moisture around this low will support a diurnal cumulus field in the 5-8 kft range this afternoon. Cooler air aloft and daytime heating will bring mixing depths that will tap into greater than 30 knots of flow. This will support a west-northwest wind gusting to around 25 knots. If winds overachieve, some gusts reaching 30 knots will be possible at times.
There will be some isolated to scattered rain showers today, but will be favored east of the I-75 corridor in the Thumb. Will leave any shower mention of showers out for now. Winds decrease this evening while the lower VFR cumulus field also dissipates letting VFR conditions prevail tonight.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

DISCUSSION...

Moist cyclonic flow around the upper low tracking across Georgian Bay maintains a breezy, unsettled almost fall-like forecast today.
Isolated to scattered showers will develop through the day, likely most pervasive over the Thumb where moisture depth and stream of PV aloft will align favorably. 850mb thermal trough will be directly overhead at 5 to 6 C, limiting high temps to the upper 60s to around 70, roughly 1 sigma below normal for June 7. Meanwhile, a belt of 20 to 30 kt wind within the boundary layer will result in another breezy day with gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range during the afternoon. Any higher gusts to around 35 mph will be most likely along/south of I-94. Winds then begin to subside during the evening as surface heating/mixing tapers off.

The upper low moves off into southern Quebec tonight, allowing a shortwave ridge to build into the Great Lakes through early Saturday. This quickly crests overhead by midday, sending a warm front into the area during the afternoon as low-level wind shifts from the southwest. At the same time, the next upper low begins to sink south across Lake Superior with difluent flow ahead of it forming a weak frontal low over the Midwest that moves in during the evening. The resultant fgen will bring an area of showers that spreads southeastward across the area from the late afternoon through the evening. Models across the board offer very little instability with this setup given weak lapse rates in part from strong mid-level capping. The best chance for any thunderstorms would be within the warm sector south of M-59, if capping is weaker and surface dew points are high enough to overcome the lapse rates.
Otherwise, just expect around a quarter inch of rainfall from the showers before they move out overnight.

Added a slight chance of light showers on Sunday, mainly north of I- 96, as a lobe of PV and mid-level moisture sink across the region while the aforementioned upper low tracks southeast across Georgian Bay into Quebec. Additional shortwaves rotate around the low Sunday night into Monday, driving a cold front south across the region.
This brings a cool start to the week with high pressure then beginning to build in from the west as the resident low-amplitude trough over eastern North America begins to amplify over New England. The high pressure maintains quiet conditions through Tuesday but is quickly followed by the next trough and opportunity for showers by Wednesday. A substantial warm-up is likely by the late week with zonal flow helping advect a warm Plains air mass eastward.

MARINE...

Cooler air has filtered into the Central Great Lakes this morning, leading to low level profiles a bit closer to neutral. Overall, winds above the surface look slightly weaker compared to yesterday, and thus expecting winds to mostly hold in the 20-25 knot range today. Lake Erie stands the best chance of exceeding 25 knots due to the warmer water temperatures.

Lighter winds (10-20 knots) arrive over the weekend before high pressure center settles overhead on Tuesday and brings light and variable winds.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

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