Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 3:40 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 030033 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 733 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Monday/

Convective clusters continue to effect North Texas as of 7pm, primarily east of the Metroplex along the I-20 corridor.
Additional isolated severe thunderstorms developed across Central Texas during peak heating within an area of extreme instability aided by broad ascent from a subtle mid-level shortwave. Attendant hail/wind threats still accompany most of this convection, with robust rainfall rates also culminating in flash flooding. Most of the Central Texas activity is likely to weaken with loss of daytime heating in the next few hours, while the more organized segments present in North East Texas are able to sustain themselves longer before eventually exiting the area to the east this evening.

Following the departure and dissipation of ongoing activity, we'll need to watch ongoing TX Panhandle convection which may attempt to congeal into a complex tonight and advance ESE. It is still unclear what effect (if any) this evening's convection may have on this activity should it encroach on North Texas overnight.
But, latest objective analysis does depict our environment recovering fairly quickly with more than sufficient MUCAPE to support additional convection overnight. A Panhandle complex may tend to follow a lingering outflow boundary and attendant theta-e and instability axes in a more south/southeast direction towards Abilene and San Angelo, as this area was largely undisturbed by convection during the preceding 12 hours. This forecast is largely based on current objective analysis and trends/intuition, as convective allowing models are still oblivious to the fact that a thunderstorm complex was present in North Texas this afternoon and evening.

Another time period that will be of concern is tomorrow afternoon and evening particularly across North and Northeast Texas where remnant outflow boundaries could ignite new convection. Since it's unknown where these features would exist during peak heating, relatively low and broad PoPs will be advertised across much of the area. However, tomorrow's coverage is expected to be far less than today's in the absence of synoptic scale ascent to aid in initiation.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/Issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/ Update:

No major changes were made with this latest long term forecast update. Trends mentioned in the previous discussion below remain representative of the period overall, with the most recent data only necessitating a few minor tweaks/refinements to the forecast.

The main talking point for the remainder of the week will be the return of seasonable heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints lingering in the 70s. This will result in a few locations through the middle of the week reaching heat index values around 105 degrees. As far as storm potential goes, there continues to be a low chance for intermittent showers and storms through the week into next weekend. While most will remain dry, a couple of isolated storms will be possible - especially on Tuesday morning where another complex could push through portions of North Texas along the Red River. A low chance for storms will remain through the end of the week as a weak cold front pushes into the region. Most of this activity will also depend on the placement of remnant outflow boundaries through the coming days.
As mentioned before, a lot of this will depend on real-time radar, satellite, and surface observations. Overall confidence in coverage, extent, and timing of any convective activity remains quite low as well, so continue to check back for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion: /Monday through Next Weekend/

After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid- to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.

Monday's daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As we've seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!

An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday- Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.

Sanchez

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

Convection is beginning to exit the D10 TAF sites to the east as of 0030z, but impacts will continue for another hour or so with lightning nearby and variable surface winds due to multiple convective outflows. After 01z, winds should return to ESE where they will remain through tonight. There is a small chance for convection currently ongoing in the Panhandle to move into North Texas overnight, and will retain a very brief VCTS mention to account for this low potential around or just prior to daybreak.
Otherwise, expect a broad swath of MVFR (and perhaps IFR) cigs to overspread much of the area towards daybreak which will last through late morning. Isolated storms may attempt to develop across parts of North/Northeast Texas late tomorrow afternoon, but this potential is too low to introduce to the TAFs at this time.

-Stalley


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 87 75 93 76 / 70 30 20 5 10 Waco 71 89 74 93 75 / 20 20 20 5 5 Paris 71 84 71 87 74 / 90 50 20 10 20 Denton 70 87 73 92 74 / 70 30 20 5 10 McKinney 71 86 73 90 75 / 90 30 20 5 20 Dallas 72 88 74 93 76 / 80 30 20 5 10 Terrell 71 87 73 91 75 / 90 40 20 5 10 Corsicana 73 89 76 92 77 / 40 30 20 5 5 Temple 73 90 75 93 75 / 20 20 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 70 90 73 94 74 / 40 20 10 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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