Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Klickitat, WA
June 13, 2024 1:42 AM PDT (08:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:06 AM Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 11:30 AM Moonset 12:14 AM |
FXUS66 KPDT 130314 AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 814 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024
UPDATE
Made some minor adjustments to overnight temperatures, otherwise current forecast looks on track.
AVIATION
06Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the period and beyond. Gusty winds at DLS have decreased and winds of 10 kts or less are expected everywhere through the night and much of Thursday. Winds will begin to increase again later Thursday/Thursday evening at DLS/BDN/RDM and winds will gust to around 25 kts at these locations. Everywhere else will be 10 kts or less.
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 350 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024/
Updated for Aviation...
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...High confidence (100%) in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be 10 kts or less everywhere, except at DLS. DLS will have gusty winds through the evening hours then 10 kts or less there as well.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024/
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Friday
The main sensible weather concerns are limited in the short term with generally fair, near seasonable conditions. The main highlights include:
- Breezy Friday with cooler temperatures as much as 10 degrees cooler than Thursday - Dry conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies
A upper-level ridge will continue passing over PacNW today through Thursday as the closed low moves towards to the BC coastline by Thursday night. Near-seasonable temperatures, light winds, and clear skies are favorable for today with no chances of precip.
However, breezy conditions are possible for Kittitas Valley and Columbia River Gorge with wind gusts between 20-30 mph early tonight.
Confidence around 60% in these winds (moderate) with the surface pressure gradient decreasing overnight. Cloud coverage begin to increase Wednesday night for Kittitas Valley and more for Simcoe Highlands and portions of the WA Cascades Thursday. HRRR suggests mid to high clouds would be passing through thus increasing confidence (>70%). Temperatures warm up again tomorrow as the upper ridge continues building eastward to The Rockies. Wind gusts could return tomorrow night for Simcoe Highlands and some portions of central OR up to around 20-25 mph (30-40% confidence).
Upper-level cyclonic flow will be in place early tomorrow night as an closed upper low offshore British Columbia evolves moving east to the near shore waters by Friday with modest 500 hPa height falls spreading across the area. This will coincide with an sharpening cross-Cascade gradient with increasing 700 mb and 850 mb winds moving into the region Friday as a weak front moves east across the area early during the day. This will promote increasing winds at the surface starting tomorrow night. Current thinking is the strongest winds will be early Friday and over the Kittitas Valley. Moderate to high confidence in frequent gusts reaching at least 30 mph with the highest chances (>80%) occurring across the Kittitas valley, elsewhere Lower Chances (>40-80%). Current thinking is gusts will likely stay under advisory criteria/less than 45 mph. 24-hr chances for peak daily gusts (maximum gusts for the day) exceeding 40 mph on Friday range 50-90% across the eastern Gorge into the Lower OR Basin and Kittitas valley, highest odds across the Kittitas Breezeway. Meantime, modest quantity of moisture accompany the system will promote low-end rain chances across the crest of the WA Cascades. Otherwise, highs will be cooler than Thursday, around a few to several degrees below normal.
LONG TERM
Friday night through Wednesday
Sensible weather concerns through the extended forecast will center around the approach and passage of an upper level low through the weekend(confidence 70-80%), followed by a general troughing pattern into the middle of next week(confidence 45-60%). Overall, conditions will remain dry in the lower elevations with periods of rain showers impacting mountain zones. There are also concerns with breezy to windy conditions developing through the weekend.
There remains excellent agreement amongst ensemble and deterministic model guidance that Friday night will start with an upper low centered just west of Vancouver Island while a cold front at the surface is pushing across the PacNW. The center of the upper low will move inland along the US/Canadian border through Saturday, then exit into central Canada early Sunday while leaving the PacNW under an upper trough pattern into the start of next week. The WA Cascades, and to a lesser extend to the OR Cascades, will see the best chances of precipitation through early Sunday morning, with NBM chances of 0.1 inches of QPF in a 48 hour period between 40-70% (best chances near the crest). The eastern mountains, however, will remain fairly dry, though chances for only 0.01 inches of QPF are only 20-40%. As the center of the low moves inland Saturday, the cold core aloft will lead to increasing chances (only up to 15-20%) for isolated thunderstorms along the WA Cascades, with best chances staying west of the Cascades.
Breezy winds between 20-30 mph and gusts around 40 mph developing early Friday will continue through the evening hours as the cold front continues to induce a tight cross-Cascade pressure gradient.
The cold front will cross the Cascades and push across the forecast area Saturday, bringing with it the strongest winds of the weekend with marginal conditions for wind advisory criteria.
The strongest winds both days will be through the eastern Columbia Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas valley, and the OR Columbia Basin; probabilities of 24 hour max wind gusts exceeding 45mph in these areas is between 40-70% Friday and 65-90% Saturday. Winds will be locally breezy Sunday behind the exit of the upper low center and the cold front.
Uncertainty in the pattern grows Monday into the middle of next week as ensemble guidance struggles with what to do with the lingering trough over the PacNW, and whether or not another trough approaches the region by Wednesday. About 70% of members made up from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles favor upper level troughing slowly moving east, keeping it over the PacNW for a longer period Monday into Tuesday; meanwhile the remaining members push the trough east allowing a transient ridge to move inland. Tuesday into Wednesday, around 55% of ensemble members favor some form of transient ridging over the region, while the remaining members favor a trough continuing to sit over the PacNW.
Confidence is moderate (60%) in locally breezy winds and light precipitation (<0.1 inches of QPF) continuing across the Cascades and portions of the eastern mountains with either pattern evolution. However, confidence is low (30-40%) in the temperature forecast during this period as the ridging pattern would result in warmer temperatures compared to the troughing pattern. In fact, this is represented as a range between 7-10 degrees between the NBM max temperature 25th and 75th percentiles, where in the lower elevations the 25th percentile is in the mid to upper 70s, and the 75th percentile in the mid to upper 80s. Lawhorn/82
AVIATION
18Z TAFs
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be light, less than 12kts, through the period. Except at site DLS where winds will be 12-17kts with gusts up to 25kts through early this evening.
Lawhorn/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 46 83 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 49 87 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 47 87 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 49 84 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 48 87 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 45 81 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 42 82 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 45 84 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 47 89 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 51 84 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 814 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024
UPDATE
Made some minor adjustments to overnight temperatures, otherwise current forecast looks on track.
AVIATION
06Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the period and beyond. Gusty winds at DLS have decreased and winds of 10 kts or less are expected everywhere through the night and much of Thursday. Winds will begin to increase again later Thursday/Thursday evening at DLS/BDN/RDM and winds will gust to around 25 kts at these locations. Everywhere else will be 10 kts or less.
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 350 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024/
Updated for Aviation...
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...High confidence (100%) in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be 10 kts or less everywhere, except at DLS. DLS will have gusty winds through the evening hours then 10 kts or less there as well.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024/
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Friday
The main sensible weather concerns are limited in the short term with generally fair, near seasonable conditions. The main highlights include:
- Breezy Friday with cooler temperatures as much as 10 degrees cooler than Thursday - Dry conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies
A upper-level ridge will continue passing over PacNW today through Thursday as the closed low moves towards to the BC coastline by Thursday night. Near-seasonable temperatures, light winds, and clear skies are favorable for today with no chances of precip.
However, breezy conditions are possible for Kittitas Valley and Columbia River Gorge with wind gusts between 20-30 mph early tonight.
Confidence around 60% in these winds (moderate) with the surface pressure gradient decreasing overnight. Cloud coverage begin to increase Wednesday night for Kittitas Valley and more for Simcoe Highlands and portions of the WA Cascades Thursday. HRRR suggests mid to high clouds would be passing through thus increasing confidence (>70%). Temperatures warm up again tomorrow as the upper ridge continues building eastward to The Rockies. Wind gusts could return tomorrow night for Simcoe Highlands and some portions of central OR up to around 20-25 mph (30-40% confidence).
Upper-level cyclonic flow will be in place early tomorrow night as an closed upper low offshore British Columbia evolves moving east to the near shore waters by Friday with modest 500 hPa height falls spreading across the area. This will coincide with an sharpening cross-Cascade gradient with increasing 700 mb and 850 mb winds moving into the region Friday as a weak front moves east across the area early during the day. This will promote increasing winds at the surface starting tomorrow night. Current thinking is the strongest winds will be early Friday and over the Kittitas Valley. Moderate to high confidence in frequent gusts reaching at least 30 mph with the highest chances (>80%) occurring across the Kittitas valley, elsewhere Lower Chances (>40-80%). Current thinking is gusts will likely stay under advisory criteria/less than 45 mph. 24-hr chances for peak daily gusts (maximum gusts for the day) exceeding 40 mph on Friday range 50-90% across the eastern Gorge into the Lower OR Basin and Kittitas valley, highest odds across the Kittitas Breezeway. Meantime, modest quantity of moisture accompany the system will promote low-end rain chances across the crest of the WA Cascades. Otherwise, highs will be cooler than Thursday, around a few to several degrees below normal.
LONG TERM
Friday night through Wednesday
Sensible weather concerns through the extended forecast will center around the approach and passage of an upper level low through the weekend(confidence 70-80%), followed by a general troughing pattern into the middle of next week(confidence 45-60%). Overall, conditions will remain dry in the lower elevations with periods of rain showers impacting mountain zones. There are also concerns with breezy to windy conditions developing through the weekend.
There remains excellent agreement amongst ensemble and deterministic model guidance that Friday night will start with an upper low centered just west of Vancouver Island while a cold front at the surface is pushing across the PacNW. The center of the upper low will move inland along the US/Canadian border through Saturday, then exit into central Canada early Sunday while leaving the PacNW under an upper trough pattern into the start of next week. The WA Cascades, and to a lesser extend to the OR Cascades, will see the best chances of precipitation through early Sunday morning, with NBM chances of 0.1 inches of QPF in a 48 hour period between 40-70% (best chances near the crest). The eastern mountains, however, will remain fairly dry, though chances for only 0.01 inches of QPF are only 20-40%. As the center of the low moves inland Saturday, the cold core aloft will lead to increasing chances (only up to 15-20%) for isolated thunderstorms along the WA Cascades, with best chances staying west of the Cascades.
Breezy winds between 20-30 mph and gusts around 40 mph developing early Friday will continue through the evening hours as the cold front continues to induce a tight cross-Cascade pressure gradient.
The cold front will cross the Cascades and push across the forecast area Saturday, bringing with it the strongest winds of the weekend with marginal conditions for wind advisory criteria.
The strongest winds both days will be through the eastern Columbia Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas valley, and the OR Columbia Basin; probabilities of 24 hour max wind gusts exceeding 45mph in these areas is between 40-70% Friday and 65-90% Saturday. Winds will be locally breezy Sunday behind the exit of the upper low center and the cold front.
Uncertainty in the pattern grows Monday into the middle of next week as ensemble guidance struggles with what to do with the lingering trough over the PacNW, and whether or not another trough approaches the region by Wednesday. About 70% of members made up from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles favor upper level troughing slowly moving east, keeping it over the PacNW for a longer period Monday into Tuesday; meanwhile the remaining members push the trough east allowing a transient ridge to move inland. Tuesday into Wednesday, around 55% of ensemble members favor some form of transient ridging over the region, while the remaining members favor a trough continuing to sit over the PacNW.
Confidence is moderate (60%) in locally breezy winds and light precipitation (<0.1 inches of QPF) continuing across the Cascades and portions of the eastern mountains with either pattern evolution. However, confidence is low (30-40%) in the temperature forecast during this period as the ridging pattern would result in warmer temperatures compared to the troughing pattern. In fact, this is represented as a range between 7-10 degrees between the NBM max temperature 25th and 75th percentiles, where in the lower elevations the 25th percentile is in the mid to upper 70s, and the 75th percentile in the mid to upper 80s. Lawhorn/82
AVIATION
18Z TAFs
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be light, less than 12kts, through the period. Except at site DLS where winds will be 12-17kts with gusts up to 25kts through early this evening.
Lawhorn/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 46 83 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 49 87 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 47 87 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 49 84 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 48 87 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 45 81 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 42 82 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 45 84 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 47 89 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 51 84 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDLS
NEW Forecast page for KDLS
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NEW Forecast page for KDLS
Wind History graph: DLS
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Pendleton, OR,
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