Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Riviera Beach, MD
May 23, 2024 6:24 PM EDT (22:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 7:57 PM Moonset 4:25 AM |
ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 434 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2024
Rest of this afternoon - S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight - W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri - E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers.
Fri night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 434 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a strong cold front will slowly approach the waters today, then drop to the south tonight. The front will return north of the waters as a warm front Friday and remain nearby through the weekend. Another strong frontal system reaches the area by Monday.
a strong cold front will slowly approach the waters today, then drop to the south tonight. The front will return north of the waters as a warm front Friday and remain nearby through the weekend. Another strong frontal system reaches the area by Monday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KLWX 231908 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 308 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will drop into the Mid-Atlantic through tonight, then return northward as a warm front Friday. The front will then meander north to south over the weekend, before being overtaken by a much stronger cold front Monday. High pressure looks to build toward the area by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A thick low to mid-level cloud deck associated with morning shower activity has finally begun to exit toward the Delmarva Peninsula. In the wake, the GOES-16 visible satellite channel shows abundant cirrus tracking overhead. However, it has not been too much of a hindrance to cumulus development. Cumulus have been rather shallow in nature and generally resistant to stronger upward development. Although the latest objective analysis paints surface-based CAPE values in the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range, there is some mid-level dry air as seen on local aircraft soundings. This appears to be one of the main impeding factors at this point from more robust development.
Current conditions are warm and modestly humid with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Forcing should improve later in the day as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west. Its current position stretches from southwestern Pennsylvania back into the lower Ohio Valley. As this system edges toward the east, lift should improve thanks to the increasing low-level frontal convergence. The degree of coverage and intensity of such convection still remains to be seen. Based on the 12Z morning high-resolution models, they were not too enthusiastic on a more widespread threat. Given the degree of instability, frontal lift, and half decent shear, isolated storms could pose a risk for damaging winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center Marginal risk area covers most locations east of Garrett County. Will continue to monitor the convective trends for any changes to the forecast package.
Given the slow movement of the mentioned frontal boundary, there is certainly a non-zero threat of flooding. As mentioned earlier, the coverage of any such convection is somewhat unknown. Showers and thunderstorms could repeat in a west-east fashion along this frontal zone. One recent inhibiting factor is the decrease in the column moisture content. Precipitable water values have dropped by around 0.25 inches since early this morning. Current values run between 1.10 to 1.30 inches which is around the 75th percentile for mid/late May. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been maintained across the entire area by the Weather Predicion Center.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the night as the front slowly pushes off to the south. Conditions remain seasonably mild with low temperatures in the 60s, locally falling into the mid/upper 50s over the higher terrain.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
By Friday morning, this frontal zone is forecast to be near the I-64 corridor. Its ultimate position will depend on how overnight convection plays out though. This should be the furthest south position of the boundary before it gradually returns northward as a warm front through the day. Locations along and south of this boundary will see the best opportunity for additional storms. However, any severe threat should be confined to the locations well to the south across South Carolina into Georgia. Generally speaking, it will be an unsettled pattern to finish the work week and into the holiday weekend. It will certainly not be a washout by any means, but it is definitely best to be prepared for the threat for thunderstorms. The warm and moist environment certainly makes the atmosphere conducive to daily storm threats, particularly given the nearby front.
Forecast high temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be a tad cooler owing to the clouds and showers. Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, locally falling into the upper 60s to mid 70s over mountain locations. Overnight lows should stay fairly close to preceding nights. This keeps such temperatures around 6 to 10 degrees below average.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The end of the weekend will continue to bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area with a lingering boundary nearby. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with light southeast winds.
A potent upper trough centered over the Great Lakes on Memorial Day will likely bring unsettled conditions to the area locally. A strong cold front will move through the Mid-Atlantic sometime Monday afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the frontal passage. Given the increased instability coupled with strong bulk shear 35+ knots and steep mid-level lapse rates, there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during this time period. All convective hazards remain possible for this event given the favorable setup. We will continue to monitor this threat as we approach Memorial Day. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for most areas aside from the mountains, where 70s will be more common.
A slight cooldown will occur behind the front and through mid to late week with lesser chances for precipitation. A weak shortwave may go through sometime Wednesday and bring another chance for thunderstorms for the afternoon hours. Still a lot of uncertainty with the long-term period hazards, especially for Monday.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Current convective threats are uncertain and predicated on how much clearing takes place during peak heating. With a slow moving cold front approaching from the west, shower and thunderstorm chances should improve later in the day. Thus, have maintained a later window for VCTS at the 3 major terminals in the area. This generally spans around 7 PM until midnight, locally a bit earlier for the far western terminals. Depending on how much instability lingers into the overnight hours, some terminals could see thunder into portions of the night. Given so much uncertainty, future TAF issuances will need to address any notable changes.
Winds will briefly shift to out of the northwest tonight before the boundary returns northward as a warm front. This leads to south to southeasterly warm advection for much of Friday into Saturday. Convective chances persist given the warm and humid air mass coupled with the nearby frontal zone. While much of the days should yield VFR conditions, restrictions are certainly possible given the shower/thunderstorm threats.
Sub-VFR conditions will be possible Sunday with any lingering showers or thunderstorms that cross the terminals. Winds out of the southeast will be light. By Monday, a cold front approaches from the west and may bring strong to severe thunderstorms to the terminals through the afternoon and evening hours before dissipating.
MARINE
Despite the frontal passage, background wind fields should remain below advisory criteria through at least Saturday. The primary hazard to those out on the marine waters is the daily threat for showers and thunderstorms. Looking at the initial concern, it would be any activity that strengthens toward dusk and into the overnight hours. Any of the stronger storms may yield Special Marine Warnings for those affected locations.
The cold front responsible for this activity drifts toward the lower waters by early Friday morning. However, expect a quick return of this boundary as it lifts northward on Friday into Saturday. This keeps the area waters in a more southerly flow regime, accompanied by daily convective threats. While not a washout, there will be possible hazardous conditions to boaters out there, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours each day.
Sub-SCA winds are expected on Sunday with light winds out of the southeast. An active Memorial Day may warrant SMWs if any strong thunderstorms cross the waters during the day.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
After the earlier high tide, winds will gradually shift form southerly to northwesterly today which leads to a decrease in tidal anomalies. However, this cold front eventually stalls to the south early Friday before returning northward as a warm front. Most tidal models show increasing anomalies at this point, particularly at the usual sensitive locations like the Southwest D.C. Waterfront and Annapolis. Persistent southerly winds will maintain elevated water levels over the weekend.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 308 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will drop into the Mid-Atlantic through tonight, then return northward as a warm front Friday. The front will then meander north to south over the weekend, before being overtaken by a much stronger cold front Monday. High pressure looks to build toward the area by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A thick low to mid-level cloud deck associated with morning shower activity has finally begun to exit toward the Delmarva Peninsula. In the wake, the GOES-16 visible satellite channel shows abundant cirrus tracking overhead. However, it has not been too much of a hindrance to cumulus development. Cumulus have been rather shallow in nature and generally resistant to stronger upward development. Although the latest objective analysis paints surface-based CAPE values in the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range, there is some mid-level dry air as seen on local aircraft soundings. This appears to be one of the main impeding factors at this point from more robust development.
Current conditions are warm and modestly humid with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Forcing should improve later in the day as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west. Its current position stretches from southwestern Pennsylvania back into the lower Ohio Valley. As this system edges toward the east, lift should improve thanks to the increasing low-level frontal convergence. The degree of coverage and intensity of such convection still remains to be seen. Based on the 12Z morning high-resolution models, they were not too enthusiastic on a more widespread threat. Given the degree of instability, frontal lift, and half decent shear, isolated storms could pose a risk for damaging winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center Marginal risk area covers most locations east of Garrett County. Will continue to monitor the convective trends for any changes to the forecast package.
Given the slow movement of the mentioned frontal boundary, there is certainly a non-zero threat of flooding. As mentioned earlier, the coverage of any such convection is somewhat unknown. Showers and thunderstorms could repeat in a west-east fashion along this frontal zone. One recent inhibiting factor is the decrease in the column moisture content. Precipitable water values have dropped by around 0.25 inches since early this morning. Current values run between 1.10 to 1.30 inches which is around the 75th percentile for mid/late May. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been maintained across the entire area by the Weather Predicion Center.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the night as the front slowly pushes off to the south. Conditions remain seasonably mild with low temperatures in the 60s, locally falling into the mid/upper 50s over the higher terrain.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
By Friday morning, this frontal zone is forecast to be near the I-64 corridor. Its ultimate position will depend on how overnight convection plays out though. This should be the furthest south position of the boundary before it gradually returns northward as a warm front through the day. Locations along and south of this boundary will see the best opportunity for additional storms. However, any severe threat should be confined to the locations well to the south across South Carolina into Georgia. Generally speaking, it will be an unsettled pattern to finish the work week and into the holiday weekend. It will certainly not be a washout by any means, but it is definitely best to be prepared for the threat for thunderstorms. The warm and moist environment certainly makes the atmosphere conducive to daily storm threats, particularly given the nearby front.
Forecast high temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be a tad cooler owing to the clouds and showers. Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, locally falling into the upper 60s to mid 70s over mountain locations. Overnight lows should stay fairly close to preceding nights. This keeps such temperatures around 6 to 10 degrees below average.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The end of the weekend will continue to bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area with a lingering boundary nearby. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with light southeast winds.
A potent upper trough centered over the Great Lakes on Memorial Day will likely bring unsettled conditions to the area locally. A strong cold front will move through the Mid-Atlantic sometime Monday afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the frontal passage. Given the increased instability coupled with strong bulk shear 35+ knots and steep mid-level lapse rates, there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during this time period. All convective hazards remain possible for this event given the favorable setup. We will continue to monitor this threat as we approach Memorial Day. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for most areas aside from the mountains, where 70s will be more common.
A slight cooldown will occur behind the front and through mid to late week with lesser chances for precipitation. A weak shortwave may go through sometime Wednesday and bring another chance for thunderstorms for the afternoon hours. Still a lot of uncertainty with the long-term period hazards, especially for Monday.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Current convective threats are uncertain and predicated on how much clearing takes place during peak heating. With a slow moving cold front approaching from the west, shower and thunderstorm chances should improve later in the day. Thus, have maintained a later window for VCTS at the 3 major terminals in the area. This generally spans around 7 PM until midnight, locally a bit earlier for the far western terminals. Depending on how much instability lingers into the overnight hours, some terminals could see thunder into portions of the night. Given so much uncertainty, future TAF issuances will need to address any notable changes.
Winds will briefly shift to out of the northwest tonight before the boundary returns northward as a warm front. This leads to south to southeasterly warm advection for much of Friday into Saturday. Convective chances persist given the warm and humid air mass coupled with the nearby frontal zone. While much of the days should yield VFR conditions, restrictions are certainly possible given the shower/thunderstorm threats.
Sub-VFR conditions will be possible Sunday with any lingering showers or thunderstorms that cross the terminals. Winds out of the southeast will be light. By Monday, a cold front approaches from the west and may bring strong to severe thunderstorms to the terminals through the afternoon and evening hours before dissipating.
MARINE
Despite the frontal passage, background wind fields should remain below advisory criteria through at least Saturday. The primary hazard to those out on the marine waters is the daily threat for showers and thunderstorms. Looking at the initial concern, it would be any activity that strengthens toward dusk and into the overnight hours. Any of the stronger storms may yield Special Marine Warnings for those affected locations.
The cold front responsible for this activity drifts toward the lower waters by early Friday morning. However, expect a quick return of this boundary as it lifts northward on Friday into Saturday. This keeps the area waters in a more southerly flow regime, accompanied by daily convective threats. While not a washout, there will be possible hazardous conditions to boaters out there, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours each day.
Sub-SCA winds are expected on Sunday with light winds out of the southeast. An active Memorial Day may warrant SMWs if any strong thunderstorms cross the waters during the day.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
After the earlier high tide, winds will gradually shift form southerly to northwesterly today which leads to a decrease in tidal anomalies. However, this cold front eventually stalls to the south early Friday before returning northward as a warm front. Most tidal models show increasing anomalies at this point, particularly at the usual sensitive locations like the Southwest D.C. Waterfront and Annapolis. Persistent southerly winds will maintain elevated water levels over the weekend.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CBCM2 | 1 mi | 54 min | SE 9.9G | 75°F | 72°F | 29.87 | 65°F | |
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 1 mi | 54 min | SE 8.9G | 76°F | ||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 5 mi | 54 min | SE 8.9G | 77°F | 73°F | |||
| 44043 - Patapsco, MD | 8 mi | 36 min | SSE 7.8G | 73°F | 73°F | 0 ft | ||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 15 mi | 54 min | SSW 5.1G | 78°F | 73°F | 29.89 | ||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 16 mi | 54 min | SE 4.1G | 76°F | 74°F | 29.89 | ||
| CPVM2 | 17 mi | 54 min | 73°F | 69°F | ||||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 18 mi | 36 min | S 5.8G | 71°F | 69°F | 0 ft | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 22 mi | 24 min | SE 8G | 73°F | 29.92 | |||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 31 mi | 54 min | SSE 4.1 | 81°F | 29.89 | 70°F | ||
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 35 mi | 54 min | SSW 1G | 83°F | 73°F | 29.88 | ||
| CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD | 44 mi | 54 min | SSW 5.1G | 78°F | 72°F | 29.89 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 46 mi | 36 min | ENE 1.9G | 74°F | 0 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL THURGOOD MARSHALL,MD | 8 sm | 30 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 66°F | 62% | 29.87 | |
| KMTN MARTIN STATE,MD | 11 sm | 30 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 64°F | 65% | 29.90 | |
| KFME TIPTON,MD | 15 sm | 15 min | SE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 68°F | 70% | 29.91 |
Fort Carroll
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT 1.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT Full Moon
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT 1.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:57 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT 1.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT Full Moon
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT 1.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:57 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fort Carroll, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT 1.15 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:18 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT Full Moon
Thu -- 12:41 PM EDT -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:39 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT 0.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:55 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 09:07 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:56 PM EDT -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT 1.15 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:18 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT Full Moon
Thu -- 12:41 PM EDT -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:39 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT 0.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:55 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 09:07 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:56 PM EDT -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.5 |
| 1 am |
| -0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| -1 |
| 1 pm |
| -1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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