Sunrise 5:01 AM   Sunset 9:01 PM Moonrise 11:25 AM   Moonset 12:13 AM

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FXUS66 KOTX 130951 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 251 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Today will be warm with light winds. A cold front is expected to bring more breezy conditions Friday and Saturday. The weekend and early next week will be cool with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Today through Friday Night: Satellite imagery early this morning showed a closed low off the central BC coast with southwest flow over the region. The southwest flow ahead of the low will promote warmer temperatures today, and likely the warmest day of the 7 day forecast with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The region will also get a break from the wind. For tonight a weak mid level wave tracks across the region ahead of a cold front. For most of the region it will be just a band of passing mid level clouds, with a chance of virga (precipitation that evaporates before reaching the ground). Although from the Blue Mountains into the Central Panhandle Mountains the moisture combines with elevated instability with MU CAPE up to 200 J/KG with a few models generating some light precipitation. Thus have added some sprinkles to the forecast.

The cooler and drier air then begins to spill in Friday morning as a mid level dry slot tracks through. Winds will be persistently breezy to locally windy through the day with southwest winds sustained 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph. Despite the cooling trend, the dry air will allow relative humidity to drop to 16-25% for most of the lower elevations that may lead to quick fire spread with any new fires in dry grass. Currently, SPC has the Columbia Basin in elevated fire weather conditions on Friday. The good news is that the HDW (Hot, Dry, Windy) index doesn't look as high as what occurred on Tuesday.

Friday Night as the upper low continues its march towards the area, 850mb temperatures continue to cool, with snow levels in the Cascades dropping to 5000-5500 feet overnight. This could mean some light accumulations over SR20 at Washington Pass. Given time of year any snow that will likely have a hard time sticking to the roads. JW

Saturday through Wednesday: Expect a pattern shift over the weekend into early next week as low pressure drops down from British Columbia. Gusty winds are expected Saturday, with cooler temps and chances for showers also arriving this weekend. Wind speeds of 15-30 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are currently forecast for Saturday, especially across the Cascade gaps into the Waterville Plateau and Columbia Basin. This could certainly lead to some elevated fire weather concerns, though the cooler temps should keep RH values from getting too terribly low. The best chances for precip look to be across the Cascades, northern WA mountains, and northern Idaho from late Saturday into early next week. After our period of above normal temps, daytime readings are forecast to drop below normal for Saturday through at least Monday. Some patchy frost possible Sunday morning across areas that are typically susceptable. /KD

AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Some passing mid and high clouds are expected through 12z Friday. Winds will be much lighter today compared to the past several days. The Pioneer Wildfire near Lake Chelan will continue to produce smoke but shouldn't restrict visibility at any airports.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 80 54 73 50 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 40 10 Coeur d'Alene 80 53 73 47 61 39 / 0 10 0 0 50 10 Pullman 78 52 68 46 60 38 / 0 10 0 0 30 10 Lewiston 87 58 80 53 70 46 / 0 10 0 0 20 0 Colville 78 47 75 43 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 80 20 Sandpoint 77 51 72 45 59 38 / 0 10 0 0 80 30 Kellogg 78 56 68 49 57 41 / 0 10 10 0 60 20 Moses Lake 84 51 77 49 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Wenatchee 81 53 73 51 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Omak 83 50 78 47 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 40 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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