Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 1:33 AM   Moonset 2:05 PM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 1238 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure shifts over area waters tonight, then offshore early next week with temps returning to above normal. No marine hazards are anticipated during the period.

FXUS61 KAKQ 010717 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains over the area today with dry and pleasant weather. A weak low system will bring the chance for a few showers and storms late Sunday into Monday. Unsettled and mild weather returns from mid to late week with scattered showers and storms possible through the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant this afternoon after a chilly morning.

The latest sfc analysis indicates ~1024 mb sfc high pressure centered over the area early this morning. Temps as of 230 AM ranged from the upper 40s NW to the lower 50s SE with mid-upper 50s along the coast. High pressure lingers over the area today, gradually moving offshore this evening into tonight. Given high pressure overhead and clear skies, expect a chilly start to the day with morning lows in the mid 40s inland, lower 50s in urban areas, and mid- upper 50s closer to the coast. However, a pleasant warm- up into the lower 80s is on the way this afternoon with pleasantly low humidity and light winds. Thin cirrus gradually increase in coverage from W to E late this afternoon into tonight with mostly cloudy skies by sunrise Sun. Lows tonight in the mid 50s W to the upper 50s to lower 60s E.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- There is a chance for a few showers and storms late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and again Monday afternoon.

A shortwave and surface low pass to the N of the local area Sun into Sun night, allowing for the chance of a few showers and storms from late Sun afternoon into Sunday night. However, models continue to show discrepancies with coverage of convection with most CAMs showing little to no precip (highest chances N/NW). Therefore, have kept PoPs limited to <35%. Another weak shortwave moves towards the area Mon with a chance (<35%) for additional afternoon showers/storms. Given cloud cover Sun, highs have trended cooler in the upper 70s NW to the lower 80s E (apart from mid 80s along the coast). A bit warmer Mon with highs in the low-mid 80s. Lows in the 60s both nights.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather persists from mid to late week with multiple chances for showers and storms.

- Mild with highs in the low-mid 80s each day.

Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek before a trough moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New England from mid to late week, potentially becoming a cutoff low. As this pattern change occurs, models show the potential for multiple shortwaves moving through the area. Therefore, daily chances for showers/storms exists. That being said, PoPs are low for Tue, Fri, and Sat (generally <20% apart from 25% across SE VA/NE NC Fri afternoon) with the highest confidence in scattered showers/storms on Wed and Thu (40-50% PoPs). Thu appears to be the greatest chance for storms all week as the combination of the upper level trough approaching and a cold front moving through should provide for enough forcing for at least somewhat organized convection. A potential overlap of shear and instability may allow for some stronger storms as well. However, uncertainty is still high this far out regarding timing of the necessary ingredients for any mention of severe (as opposed to "typical") storms at this time. Will continue to monitor. Otherwise, mild all week with highs mainly in the mid 80s each day (upper 70s to lower 80s across the Eastern Shore) and lows mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 115 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions and light and variable winds continue through the 06z taf period. High pressure centered over the area gradually moves offshore this afternoon. Clear skies outside of a few thin cirrus linger through the day before cirrus thickens overnight with BKN skies by Sun morning.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of Sun, with a low chance for showers/storms late Sun through Sun night (highest chance RIC-SBY). Mainly dry and VFR Mon and Tue with a minimal chance (20% or less) of afternoon/evening showers/storms. Unsettled weather returns from mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

-High pressure remains over the region to start the weekend with light offshore flow expected before unsettled weather returns for next week.

High pressure continues to settle in across the region early this morning. This has resulted in light west/southwesterly flow over the local waters with speeds generally hovering around 5-10kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the Bay around 1 foot. Expect these benign conditions to persist today and into the first half of Sunday. The high pressure will then begin to slide offshore later tonight into early Sunday. As the flow becomes more southerly, hi-res models are indicating that speeds may increase to 10-15kt briefly tonight.
Currently expect it to be too borderline and too brief for any SCA headlines, but wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots in the Bay reach 16-19kt for an hour or two.

A weakening shortwave will approach the area Sunday afternoon bringing an increase of moisture and mark the return of scattered shower and storm chances. Uncertainty remains in the exact precip coverage forecast for early next week, but expect an unsettled weather pattern to persist. Daily scattered rain and storm chances will be possible, along with erratic wind gusts with any storm.
Outside of that, generally expecting winds to remain around 10-15kt, with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas will be 2-3ft into the first week of June, with waves in the Bay of 1-2ft.

A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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