Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 1:50 AM   Moonset 2:21 PM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 926 Pm Cdt Fri May 31 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Monday - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Monday night - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Tuesday - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, easing to around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, easing to smooth after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 926 Pm Cdt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
small craft should continue to exercise caution tonight in the offshore waters as moderate winds persist. After tonight, light to moderate onshore flow and seas of 3 to 6 feet should prevail into the upcoming work week. Caution flags may be needed at times, especially during the overnight hours. Rounds of showers and storms will be possible over the weekend with rain chances tapering off next week. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, producing strong wind gusts and locally elevated seas. Persistent onshore flow will also bring a high risk of rip currents over the next several days.

FXUS64 KHGX 010446 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1146 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Things have mostly stabilized behind this mornings storm complex.
Seeing some sun re-emerge, but chances are that things are a bit too overturned to see much more than an isolated cell or two prior to sunset. Looking upstream at water vapor imagery, nothing much of significance is noted that might impact the area tonight...though with a wnw/nw flow aloft prevailing, we'll keep an eye on things.
With wet ground, light winds and pcldy conditions I'd look for some patchy fog development overnight.

Wind flow was disrupted for a good while behind this morning's storm complex. They're now beginning to swing back around to the southeast. As such, look for PW's to gradually recover back to around 2" Saturday. Combination of a narrow zone of speed convergence, daytime heating and eventually a seabreeze...look for sct tstm development by mid morning closer to the coast - expanding inland throughout the day. Shear isn't anything to write home about, but would anticipate a few isolated strong-severe pulse cells along the potential for heavy downpours.

As previously stated, trying to narrow down timing/location as to where more significant impulses embedded in the upper flow might generate more organized convection is a tough challenge. At this time, we might look toward the late night hours Saturday night.
Most guidance doesn't show much making to the local area, but worth keeping an eye on any West Texas convection to make sure. 47

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Another mid level shortwave is expected to slide over Texas on Sunday, bringing an additional round of showers/thunderstorms that afternoon. The environment still looks to hold sufficient moisture, shear and instability to produce a few stronger storms, though currently these storms don't appear to be as widespread/potent as these storms of recent.

Diminishing rain chances and increasing temperatures can be expected early next week as ridging builds over Mexico. Impulses riding the peripheral of this ridge could still bring some isolated showers/storms on Monday, mainly in areas north of I-10 closer to the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Stronger capping on Tuesday/Wednesday may greatly suppress rain chances on those days.
Along with the stronger cap, NAEFS and GEFS 850mb temperatures are forecasted to surpass the 90th climatological percentile on these days (even the 97.5th in some spots). The latest suite of global models still suggest 850mb temperatures reaching the 20-26C range during this period, with robust SW flow in the lower levels. This all looks to bring hotter conditions during this early/mid week period, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday/Wednesday. Persistent onshore winds are also progged to keep dewpoints in the mid/lower 70s during this period, making conditions exceptionally humid. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s/triple digits on Sunday, rising to 101-108 degrees on Tuesday & Wednesday.

Those with outdoor plans next week should be mindful of the increasing heat risk. Practicing heat safety will become especially important in the coming weeks/months as we head deeper into the climatological summer. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear lightweight clothing and be sure to take breaks out of the sun. Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year, so be sure to not underestimate the danger it poses.

Global models show an elongated trough near the Upper Great lakes attempting for force a weak cold front southward into the Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region late in the week. If the front can make it to our area, it could provide some relief from the heat. Though as we've mentioned before, frontal systems have a tendency to stall out before reaching SE Texas during this time of the year, so the chances of getting some dramatic relief from the warm weather are low, especially as models trend slower/later with the frontal.
Still, the aforementioned upper trough may weaken the ridge's influence over SE Texas to provide some mild relief for Thursday.
Though, compressional heating and pooling moisture ahead of the aforementioned boundary could negate this relief, and potentially even exasperate the heat risk.

03

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Previous package generally remains on track with mainly VFR conditions prevailing overnight. Brief windows of MVFR cigs and sub-VFR visibilities due to patchy fog are possible at times, with winds generally remaining light and variable. A persistent SE wind develops tomorrow morning with scattered thunderstorms beginning to form near the coast by mid-morning. This activity will generally expand to the north over the course of the morning and into the afternoon, with storms dissipating in the early evening.
Given expected scattered coverage of storms, have maintained VCTS wording for the time being. We continue to monitor the potential for a more organized line of storms to approach the area on Sunday morning, but these prospects have become less favorable per the most resent high resolution model runs.

Cady

MARINE
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Elevated winds near 20 knots and seas up to 7 feet have developed in the wake of this morning's storms. Small Craft should remain in harbor until conditions improve later tonight. Afterwards, light to moderate onshore flow and seas of 3 to 6 feet should prevail into the upcoming work week. Caution flags may be needed at times, especially during the overnight hours. Rounds of showers and storms will be possible over the weekend, with rain chances tapering off next week. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, producing damaging wind gusts and locally elevated seas. Persistent onshore flow will also bring a high risk of rip currents over the next several days.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 73 89 75 90 / 30 50 20 20 Houston (IAH) 75 89 76 90 / 40 60 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 86 80 87 / 30 30 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Eagle Point
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Sat -- 02:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:32 AM CDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:17 AM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:21 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:21 PM CDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:35 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eagle Point, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Sat -- 01:26 AM CDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:30 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:24 AM CDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:38 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:19 PM CDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:02 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:05 PM CDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:24 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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