Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 2:12 AM   Moonset 3:40 PM

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LEZ149 Expires:202406020815;;283311 Fzus51 Kcle 020117 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 917 pm edt Sat jun 1 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez148-149-020815- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 917 pm edt Sat jun 1 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 69 degrees, off cleveland 62 degrees, and off erie 63 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 020603 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 203 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure will move northeast across the Central Great Lakes region late tonight and Sunday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday night and Monday before a warm front lifts north Monday night. Low pressure will cross the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday with a cold front moving east across the area Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
900 pm update...
There were no impactful changes made to the ongoing near term forecast at this time.

Previous discussion...
The dry airmass that was in place across the region today will be replaced by increasing moisture and showers late tonight into Sunday. Moisture arrives ahead of a weak trough crossing the region overnight through Sunday. Dewpoints are starting off in the mid 40s to lower 50s this afternoon. A nearly vertically stacked trough is located over eastern Illinois this afternoon with a swath of light showers extending from Lake Michigan southeast across Indiana. Although some virga is likely at first, leading showers are likely to reach the I-75 corridor between 9-11 PM with a slow eastward progression overnight. A 40 knot low level jet will be focused across NW Ohio which will enhance coverage in the west tonight. The eastward progression is perhaps a touch slower still, reaching Cleveland/Akron between 3-7 AM. Lows tonight will be 5-10 degrees warmer than last night given the increasing coverage of clouds and showers.
Sunday will feel markedly different as dewpoints increase to near 60 degrees with cloudy skies and showers to start the day.
The steadier rain driven by isentropic ascent will decrease in coverage by early afternoon. Low levels will remain quite moist and some weak instability does try to develop across mainly NW and North Central Ohio as the surface low slowly pivots eastward. There is a window during the afternoon where scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms could re-develop before mid-levels start to warm and chances decreases.
Precipitation amounts will tend to range from 0.10-0.50 inch through Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday will occur late in the day and range from near 70 in the east to upper 70s in the west.

Boundary layer moisture is forecast to remain high into Sunday night. As breaks start to develop in the clouds, some fog may develop, especially in NE Ohio where weak convergence will be located.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A ridge will continue to build east Monday with return flow developing throughout the day as the ridge axis pushes east of the local area. Both temperatures and humidity will increase in response to the southerly flow and expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower 60s. Monday night's lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

An upper level shortwave will approach from the west Monday evening into Tuesday, but generally expect the best forcing to remain to the west of the area through at least Tuesday afternoon or evening. The best of shower and thunderstorm activity will be located where there is a bit more lift, however there is enough instability to warrant chances of showers and thunderstorms primarily west of I-71 Tuesday afternoon and early evening. It's quite possible that most locations remain dry on Tuesday due to lack of forcing. By Tuesday night, the shortwave energy will begin to move east into the area as a cold front advances east across the Mississippi Valley and anticipate an uptick in rain chances towards the end of the short term period.
Instability will be lower due to the loss of diurnal heating, so the thunder chances will be lower (but not zero) Tuesday night.
Persistent southerly flow/warm air advection will allow temps to increase both Tuesday and Tuesday night; highs will be in the mid 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Dew points will climb into the low to mid 60s which will make it feel quite muggy but apparent temperatures should stay close to the actual temperature due to breezy southerly winds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase further on Wednesday as the aforementioned cold front and a negatively tilted trough aloft continue to approach from the west. Instability will depend on the location of a warm front which should be to the north of Lake Erie Wednesday; the farther north the warm front is, the farther north the more widespread instability reaches. If the warm front is farther south than expected, the highest instability and best chance of convection may be suppressed to southern zones or to the south of the CWA As stated in the previous discussion, there's still quite a bit to iron out in regards to the upper trough and the timing of the best forcing/shear. If shear/forcing manage to align with the best instability, there could be potential for organized (and perhaps stronger) convection Wednesday.

A broad upper low will settle somewhere over the Great Lakes Thursday through the start of the weekend. The cyclonic flow and cold air advection will most likely result in below normal temperatures and scattered/periodic showers with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Rain showers ahead of a weak area of low pressure are spreading across the area from west to east early this morning. VFR ahead of the rain. Brief MVFR vsby is possible with more moderate rain showers through this morning though expect VFR vsby to be most common overall. This more widespread batch of light to briefly moderate showers will exit east by late morning or early afternoon. Isolated pop up showers are expected this afternoon, especially across Northwest and North Central Ohio. The risk for thunder is very low overall with just a slight chance for an isolated storm from CLE and CAK points west this afternoon.

More widespread restrictions will come from ceilings. Widespread IFR to low MVFR ceilings are in place upstream and have already reached TOL. Expect lower ceilings to gradually spread east through this morning, though a drier low-level air mass in place ahead of the rain to the east and a downsloping south- southeast flow makes IFR potential more uncertain the farther east one goes. Maintained a period of IFR for at least a few hours this morning at TOL, FDY and MFD. Can't rule it out at CAK, YNG, and perhaps CLE, though confidence is lower and ultimately kept them MVFR with this cycle. Ceilings should rise slightly this afternoon with a bit of heating, though we may hang on to MVFR at most sites. While we try to scatter out the stratus this evening fog/mist may quickly replace it tonight.

Winds will be out of the south at 6 to 14 knots through Sunday, becoming light and variable Sunday night.

Outlook...Thunderstorms and associated non-VFR possible at times Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE
Southeast flow will develop over the lake this evening with winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots for a few hours tonight. There will likely be a brief period of south winds to 15 to 20 knots in the western basin before daybreak Sunday, but expect southwesterly winds to diminish below 15 knots by mid to late morning. Otherwise, expect quiet marine conditions through at least Tuesday morning. Warm air advection will allow southerly winds to gradually increase to around 15 knots Tuesday into Wednesday which could result in some chop. The next chance for a Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards Statement will occur late Wednesday into Thursday as southwest winds increase to about 20 knots as a cold front crosses the region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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