Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 2:26 AM   Moonset 4:33 PM

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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1036 Am Edt Mon Jun 3 2024
Rest of today - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon. Tonight - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Tue - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely . Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1036 Am Edt Mon Jun 3 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
shower and Thunderstorm chances will persists throughout the workweek and into the start of the weekend as a series of disturbances traverse the area. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday into Thursday.

FXUS61 KPHI 031321 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 921 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak system moves through the area today. High pressure moves in tonight remaining in control through early Wednesday. An upper level low then will move into the Great Lakes, keeping things unsettled into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast on track this morning. Some clearing and destabilization is ongoing, though some clouds have started to redevelop. Main update was cutting PoPs a little bit for later this afternoon. Thinking the highest chance for showers/thunderstorms will be over South Jersey and southern Delmarva, but only around a 30-40% chance as any convection will be relatively scattered.

Hi res guidance shows MUCAPE values around the 1000 J/kg range by the afternoon, and perhaps more notably DCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg as well. With dewpoints in the 60s, the ingredients are there for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid afternoon. With the dry mid- level air, convective initiation (CI) will likely fail early in the afternoon. However, modest low- level moisture and continued CI attempts in persistent areas should eventually support some isolated to scattered convection by around mid to late afternoon (3 PM onward). There will be some surface convergence across the coastal plain across southern NJ, which should be a focusing mechanism for CI, and will likely result in the greatest coverage/strength of convection in this area as well. The severe potential with these storms, however, will remain on the low end with deep layer shear being rather lackluster in the afternoon around 20 kts at best. Nevertheless, the higher DCAPE and mid-level dry air could support some downbursts with any more robust cells that are able to develop. With PWAT values in the 1-1.5 inch range, a few good downpours may be possible with a stronger storm, but any flooding concerns will be very localized and brief. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 80s in most areas under a mix of sun and clouds.

Showers/storms diminish Monday evening due to the loss of daytime heating and also as high pressure starts to build in to the north.
This will result in skies starting to clear out with winds becoming light onshore. This could lead to some patchy fog by the overnight period across the coastal plain. Generally expect lows in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
An upper ridge moves in Tuesday, so this along with a surface high means mostly fair weather for Tuesday. Increasing clouds later on as the next system approaches. Highs will be a bit above normal with low/mid 80s most areas with 70s along the shore.

The next system moves in Wednesday and has sped up a bit from the past few set of model runs. Moisture returns to the region on the back side of the retreating high. Low pressure and its associated cold front will move towards the area later Wed and Wed night. Pops increase to likely overnight most areas and there is a chance for thunder along with the showers. The clouds will likely cut into the previous days mild temperatures, but readings will still be near normal Wed. with upper 70s to low 80s most areas. Rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch expected thru Wed night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Not much has changed with regards to the long term. It still looks like Thursday morning will feature showery/tstms weather as an upper low, and a front advancing ahead of it, arrives over the Middle Atlantic. Once the front passes, cooler and drier air will be across the region with colder air aloft too. This upper cool air will keep the atmosphere unsettled Fri and into the weekend. It will be dry much of the time, but chances for showers or a tstm exist each day. The showers will favor the peak heating times, so mid/late afternoon perhaps lasting into the early evening.

Temperatures will be above normal Thursday with low/mid 80s most areas. It will be humid as well until the cool dry air arrives later on. Following that, seasonable readings are expected for Fri and into the weekend with highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows in the 50s most areas.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Prevailing VFR conditions with scattered clouds. Chance (30%-40%) of a shower/tstm after 18Z, mainly from around KACY/KMIV. Brief period of sub- VFR conditions possible with a stronger storm. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR this evening but some visibility restrictions appear likely overnight around MIV and ACY due to mist/fog.
Remaining sites should stay VFR. Winds becoming light onshore generally out of the east at around 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR though showers/isolated thunderstorms arriving late in the day could bring some restrictions.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Restrictions likely (70-80%)
with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms moving through.

Thursday Night through Friday...Conditions should lift back to VFR at some point but lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms could result in further restrictions.

MARINE
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight however expect some showers and potentially even a few thunderstorms over the waters this afternoon. Seas mainly 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions possible (a 30-40% chance) with gusts nearing 25 kt. Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

Rip Currents...

A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for today and Tuesday. While winds turn partially onshore for today and then fully onshore for Tuesday, wind speeds will be around 10 MPH, with continuing 1 to 2 foot waves and short to medium period which keeps the overall risk for rip current development low.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Avalon
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:33 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:30 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:55 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:43 AM EDT     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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