Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tilghman Island, MD
June 7, 2024 8:26 AM EDT (12:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 5:12 AM Moonset 9:13 PM |
ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 734 Am Edt Fri Jun 7 2024
Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 734 Am Edt Fri Jun 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will push across the waters tonight. Dry conditions Friday and Saturday as high pressure crosses the region. A weak cold front approaches the waters Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed for a brief time this weekend.
a cold front will push across the waters tonight. Dry conditions Friday and Saturday as high pressure crosses the region. A weak cold front approaches the waters Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed for a brief time this weekend.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 071034 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 634 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cold front moves offshore this morning. Weak high pressure builds in this afternoon, holding some influence through Saturday. A sequence of cold fronts cross through the area on Sunday and again on Monday.
Broad high pressure returns for Tuesday with some unsettled weather expected around mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
The dry air associated with a cold front is sliding through the region this evening with a noticeable drop in dew points and some cloud cover. Light ground fog developed in the protected river valleys overnight but never really had much impact further east across the Mount Holly WFO. With the shallow inversion that developed of the region we were able to see an interesting item of note with some ships traveling down the DE bay out to ocean waters.
Mid 50s to low 60s dew points have progressed to near the coastal locations this morning however its not until the afternoon before the wind shift arrives and the cold air advection surge starts actually pushing in. The winds will initially more west southwest in the morning but by later in the afternoon the winds become west northwest and with that change comes stronger mixing in the boundary layer. Gusty winds develop this afternoon with winds generally blowing 10-15kts gusting up to 25kts.
In addition there is some modest ML CAPE with the wind shift which may be just enough to support an isolated shower making it towards the Poconos but with the dry air and cold air advection I dont anticipate much happening in the way of shower activity across the region.
This evening should be tranquil with winds rapidly declining with the decoupling of the boundary layer after sunset. Brief high pressure builds in through Saturday keeping sensible weather dry to start the weekend. With cold air advection through the evening 925mb temps should be able 2 degrees cooler Saturday than Friday leading to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy to clear skies.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Heading into Saturday night, zonal flow aloft sets up temporarily as the first upper trough begins to pull away. A new upper level low will then be centered north of the NE CONUS for Sunday as a shortwave approaches the region. On Monday, the upper trough axis will swing through the region.
At the surface, weak high pressure will begin to move off the southeast coast on Saturday night allowing a cold front to approach the region on Sunday. In wake of the front, broad but expansive high pressure will begin to nose in from the west as a secondary cold front passes through on Monday.
As a whole, Saturday night looks to remain dry other than a slight chance of a rain shower in the Poconos. Increasing clouds are expected with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. PoPs will then increase from northwest to southeast during the day on Sunday as the initial front approaches. However, forcing is relatively weak so not expecting much more than a 20-30% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms on Sunday. Best chance will be north and west were better forcing is present. By Sunday night, skies will begin to clear and should remain at least partly cloudy on Monday. At this point, Monday appears to remain dry as drier air looks to be in place with the secondary frontal passage. Highs for Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s to low 80s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The upper level trough eventually pulls away from the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, the forecast becomes vastly uncertain as each of the global deterministic models show a very different upper level pattern. The GFS has a cut-off upper low meandering over the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a upper ridge over the same area. The CMC is more in line with the ECMWF, but still has mixed signals of the two. Considering the differences amongst guidance, have stayed in close relation to NBM guidance.
This maintains the slight chance of showers/storms during the Tuesday through Thursday period. Temps look to remain seasonable through Wednesday before moving above normal late in the week.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR. An isolated SHRA may pass over KABE in the afternoon. W winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Tonight...VFR with light westerly winds 6-10 kts.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...VFR expected. Slight chance for sub- VFR conditions possible on Sunday with a shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected.
MARINE
A pre-frontal trough passes through this evening, followed by a cold front tonight. Another cold front passes through on Friday but is not expected to bring showers.
Westerly winds 10 to 15 kt overnight and should increase back up to 15 to 20 kt during the day today, though gusts should remain just below 25 kt.
Seas will average 3 to 4 ft.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Winds will occasionally gust around 13-18 kt through the period with seas around 2-3 feet. Fair weather expected through Monday with a slight chance of showers returning on Tuesday.
Rip Currents...
Gusty west winds will develop on Friday, ranging from 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. With breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet, a medium period swell, and a New Moon, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at New Jersey beaches, but a LOW risk at Delaware beaches.
On Saturday, the effects of the New Moon will not be as impactful, and west winds will be much lighter. The swell will still be onshore so there will be a Moderate Risk for Atlantic County where the rip current risk is higher at low tide from roughly Longport to Brigantine during the afternoon. Elsewhere, with breaking waves generally expected to be 1-2 feet there will be a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at New Jersey and Delaware beaches.
Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers.
Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 634 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cold front moves offshore this morning. Weak high pressure builds in this afternoon, holding some influence through Saturday. A sequence of cold fronts cross through the area on Sunday and again on Monday.
Broad high pressure returns for Tuesday with some unsettled weather expected around mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
The dry air associated with a cold front is sliding through the region this evening with a noticeable drop in dew points and some cloud cover. Light ground fog developed in the protected river valleys overnight but never really had much impact further east across the Mount Holly WFO. With the shallow inversion that developed of the region we were able to see an interesting item of note with some ships traveling down the DE bay out to ocean waters.
Mid 50s to low 60s dew points have progressed to near the coastal locations this morning however its not until the afternoon before the wind shift arrives and the cold air advection surge starts actually pushing in. The winds will initially more west southwest in the morning but by later in the afternoon the winds become west northwest and with that change comes stronger mixing in the boundary layer. Gusty winds develop this afternoon with winds generally blowing 10-15kts gusting up to 25kts.
In addition there is some modest ML CAPE with the wind shift which may be just enough to support an isolated shower making it towards the Poconos but with the dry air and cold air advection I dont anticipate much happening in the way of shower activity across the region.
This evening should be tranquil with winds rapidly declining with the decoupling of the boundary layer after sunset. Brief high pressure builds in through Saturday keeping sensible weather dry to start the weekend. With cold air advection through the evening 925mb temps should be able 2 degrees cooler Saturday than Friday leading to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy to clear skies.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Heading into Saturday night, zonal flow aloft sets up temporarily as the first upper trough begins to pull away. A new upper level low will then be centered north of the NE CONUS for Sunday as a shortwave approaches the region. On Monday, the upper trough axis will swing through the region.
At the surface, weak high pressure will begin to move off the southeast coast on Saturday night allowing a cold front to approach the region on Sunday. In wake of the front, broad but expansive high pressure will begin to nose in from the west as a secondary cold front passes through on Monday.
As a whole, Saturday night looks to remain dry other than a slight chance of a rain shower in the Poconos. Increasing clouds are expected with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. PoPs will then increase from northwest to southeast during the day on Sunday as the initial front approaches. However, forcing is relatively weak so not expecting much more than a 20-30% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms on Sunday. Best chance will be north and west were better forcing is present. By Sunday night, skies will begin to clear and should remain at least partly cloudy on Monday. At this point, Monday appears to remain dry as drier air looks to be in place with the secondary frontal passage. Highs for Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s to low 80s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The upper level trough eventually pulls away from the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, the forecast becomes vastly uncertain as each of the global deterministic models show a very different upper level pattern. The GFS has a cut-off upper low meandering over the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a upper ridge over the same area. The CMC is more in line with the ECMWF, but still has mixed signals of the two. Considering the differences amongst guidance, have stayed in close relation to NBM guidance.
This maintains the slight chance of showers/storms during the Tuesday through Thursday period. Temps look to remain seasonable through Wednesday before moving above normal late in the week.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR. An isolated SHRA may pass over KABE in the afternoon. W winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Tonight...VFR with light westerly winds 6-10 kts.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...VFR expected. Slight chance for sub- VFR conditions possible on Sunday with a shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected.
MARINE
A pre-frontal trough passes through this evening, followed by a cold front tonight. Another cold front passes through on Friday but is not expected to bring showers.
Westerly winds 10 to 15 kt overnight and should increase back up to 15 to 20 kt during the day today, though gusts should remain just below 25 kt.
Seas will average 3 to 4 ft.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Winds will occasionally gust around 13-18 kt through the period with seas around 2-3 feet. Fair weather expected through Monday with a slight chance of showers returning on Tuesday.
Rip Currents...
Gusty west winds will develop on Friday, ranging from 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. With breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet, a medium period swell, and a New Moon, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at New Jersey beaches, but a LOW risk at Delaware beaches.
On Saturday, the effects of the New Moon will not be as impactful, and west winds will be much lighter. The swell will still be onshore so there will be a Moderate Risk for Atlantic County where the rip current risk is higher at low tide from roughly Longport to Brigantine during the afternoon. Elsewhere, with breaking waves generally expected to be 1-2 feet there will be a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at New Jersey and Delaware beaches.
Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers.
Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 15 sm | 36 min | WSW 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 68°F | 83% | 29.64 | |
| KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD | 19 sm | 21 min | var 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 73°F | 89% | 29.65 |
Link to 5 minute data for KESN
Link to Terminal Area Forecast for KESN
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to Terminal Area Forecast for KESN
Wind History graph: ESN
(wind in knots)Avalon
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT 2.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 12:39 PM EDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:06 PM EDT 1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:12 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 10:50 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT 2.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 12:39 PM EDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:06 PM EDT 1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:12 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 10:50 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 2 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 2.4 |
| 6 am |
| 2.3 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:12 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT 1.32 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 09:41 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:03 PM EDT -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:57 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:13 PM EDT 0.47 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:41 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:14 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:12 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT 1.32 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 09:41 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:03 PM EDT -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:57 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:13 PM EDT 0.47 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:41 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:14 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.6 |
| 1 am |
| -0.4 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| -1 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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