Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 11:36 AM   Moonset 12:03 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 918 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Overnight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers late this evening and early morning, then a slight chance of showers late. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 2 ft at 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 14 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tue night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 918 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will ridge into the area through tonight while an area of low pressure moves northeast off the southeast coast. The high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting off the coast. A cold front will push across the area Saturday with high pressure building into the region in early next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 140115 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 915 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will ridge into the area through tonight while an area of low pressure moves northeast off the Southeast coast. The high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting well off of the coast. A cold front will push across the area Saturday with high pressure building into the region in early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 915 PM Thu...No changes to previous thinking. Latest analysis shows weak low pressure off the FL Atlantic coast with high pressure ridging into the Mid-Atlantic from the NE. High will continue to push offshore tonight as low lifts northeastward. NHC continues to monitor this disturbance, currently with low probabilities of tropical development during the next 48 hrs. Sct showers and iso tstms continue to develop well offshore this evening. As the low lifts NE tonight and moisture spreads northward, expect iso to scattered showers to spread towards the immediate NC coast, with highest chances for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where we will maintain chance pops. Instability will creep upwards through the overnight, and esp towards daybreak, and will continue slight chance thunder mentions along the immediate coast, with most of the thunder threat remaining offshore. Warm tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 60s inland to low 70s for the beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
As of 230 PM Thu...Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward along the Gulf Stream Friday. Still some uncertainty with exact track, but still looks like the center of the low will remain 100-200 miles offshore as it passes to our east. This outcome would result in minimal impacts for ENC. Scattered showers and iso thunderstorm expected, with greatest coverage along the immediate coast through mid day. Low level thickness values and NE flow support highs in the 80s for the beaches and climbing into the low 90s inland.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

- Low pressure scales NE'ward off SE coast through Saturday bringing chances (20-30%) of rain along the coast

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Friday night through Sunday...Complicated setup in store, with a weak low trekking off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through the region. Trough and associated cold front will be moving through overnight Friday into Saturday morning.
While likely to remain dry, this front will help push the low along, making it accelerate further NE and keeping any impacts from the low relatively short- lived. Saturday afternoon guidance is keying in on isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Onslow, Jones, Craven, and Carteret Counties along the sea breeze. Handled this with a 15-20% PoP (Schc)
between 18Z Saturday and and 00Z Sunday.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s. Unsure how this boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up, but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but fortunately winds should remain light during this period with the high.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 550 PM Thu...Pred VFR conditions with light winds expected through the TAF period. Sct cu and broken high clouds continue across the area late today. Similar to this morning, signal for widespread fog development is low given high cloudiness...however it is possible for shallow, patchy fog, especially at EWN with light onshore winds. Shower threat expected to remain mostly east of the terminals tonight into Friday as low pressure moves well offshore.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the long term, but if a sfc low currently projected to remain well offshore Friday night- Saturday draws closer to the coast, rain chances and lower ceilings would become more favorable.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 915 PM Thu...No changes to previous thinking. Latest obs show E winds 5-10 kt and seas 2-3 ft north of Hatteras and 10-20 kt south with 3-5 ft seas. Low pressure off the FL coast will continue to grad strengthen, lifting NE off the SE coast tonight. Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward along the Gulf Stream Friday. Still some uncertainty with exact track, but still looks like the center of the low will remain 100-200 miles offshore as it passes well to our east. Main change was to increase winds slightly for Fri. Winds will back, becoming E-NE 10-20 kt Friday with seas 3-5 ft (highest south of Hatteras).
At this time expect conditions to remain sub SCA. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight through mid day Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Through the weekend we have a lot of uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc low developing off the SE coast progresses. Potential for SCA gusts and elevated seas exists through Sunday if the sfc low approaches closer to our nearshore waters, but confidence remains low at this point. Most likely outcome is the center of the low remains about 200 miles offshore along the Gulf Stream.
Cold front moves through early Saturday, pushing the low away to the NE Saturday. A secondary back door cold front moving through will then move through later Saturday. This sequence of events will result in rapid wind changes, and brief periods of gusty conditions right along and behind the fronts. Next week pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NCZ195-196-204-205.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 01:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:00 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Spooner Creek
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Thu -- 01:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:25 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,