Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester Hill, PA
June 2, 2024 4:25 AM EDT (08:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 2:05 AM Moonset 3:30 PM |
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 020454 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1254 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak shortwave will track across Pennsylvania late Sunday, followed by upper level ridging early next week. A slow moving cold front will cross the region during the middle of the week, then an upper level trough will build over the region late week into next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Upper level ridging along the east coast will ensure fair weather overnight. However, warm advection aloft ahead of an upstream shortwave will spread thickening cirrus into Central PA. Light wind, dry air and mostly clear skies this evening may allow temps to dip a bit below NBM guidance over the eastern edge of the forecast area. Otherwise, sticking close to NBM guidance, with lows in the 50s areawide.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A surge in pwats 1-1.5" ahead of weakening shortwave trough will spread mainly light/passing showers from west to east across central PA Sunday into Sunday night. Model trends are slower with the progression of the showers shifting max POPs later Sunday afternoon/evening into Sunday night. Cloud cover will greatly limit instability with HRRR depicting almost no CAPE tomorrow -- so thunderstorms are unlikely. Expect a cloudy end to the first weekend of June with max temps trending cooler than Saturday, especially over the W Mtn where thickening clouds will arrive first.
Building upper level ridge to 580dm early next week should favor lower POPs Mon-Tue. However, airmass will be trending warmer and more humid, so can't rule out spotty diurnally driven convection.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the Grt Lks should result in showery weather Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, latest medium range guidance shows a surface high parked along the New England coast, which will likely keep Central and Eastern PA relatively stable, with a limited risk of severe weather. The most concentrated showers and possible tsra should come with the passage of the low level jet just ahead of the cold/occluded front passage Wed PM into early Thursday. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed-Thu is around a half inch.
Latest GEFS and EPS indicate drier weather Friday/Saturday, as the low level jet/plume of highest pwats shift east of PA with the exiting cold/occluded front. However, scattered, diurnally- driven showers appear probable, especially over the NW Mtns, associated with the deep upper trough/closed low parked over the Grt Lks.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
For the 06Z TAF package, no big changes from the 00Z set.
The airmass is very dry, so lower conditions may form a bit later than guidance would indicate for late Sunday.
Earlier discussion below.
VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Sunday with high (> 90%)
confidence. A high-level (10-15kft) SCT-to-BKN deck is expected to traverse across the area during the overnight period with some lighter winds and dry air limiting any fog potential overnight into Sunday morning. After 15Z Sunday, some lower level clouds (~5000ft AGL) will move into the western terminals (BFD/JST) ahead of scattered rain showers with some potential for lower visibilities. Rain showers will then overspread across the central mountains after 18Z Sunday but not quite reach the eastern airfields by 00Z Monday. As the showers become more widespread lower cigs will begins to encroach in the west as well with MVFR ceilings possible for BFD/JST. Scattered showers will linger into the early morning hours on Monday before tapering off and allowing for fog to develop as clearing occurs.
Outlook...
Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.
Tue-Thu...SHRA and TSRA at times with restrictions possible.
CLIMATE
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings
Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring
Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring
Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring
Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1254 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak shortwave will track across Pennsylvania late Sunday, followed by upper level ridging early next week. A slow moving cold front will cross the region during the middle of the week, then an upper level trough will build over the region late week into next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Upper level ridging along the east coast will ensure fair weather overnight. However, warm advection aloft ahead of an upstream shortwave will spread thickening cirrus into Central PA. Light wind, dry air and mostly clear skies this evening may allow temps to dip a bit below NBM guidance over the eastern edge of the forecast area. Otherwise, sticking close to NBM guidance, with lows in the 50s areawide.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A surge in pwats 1-1.5" ahead of weakening shortwave trough will spread mainly light/passing showers from west to east across central PA Sunday into Sunday night. Model trends are slower with the progression of the showers shifting max POPs later Sunday afternoon/evening into Sunday night. Cloud cover will greatly limit instability with HRRR depicting almost no CAPE tomorrow -- so thunderstorms are unlikely. Expect a cloudy end to the first weekend of June with max temps trending cooler than Saturday, especially over the W Mtn where thickening clouds will arrive first.
Building upper level ridge to 580dm early next week should favor lower POPs Mon-Tue. However, airmass will be trending warmer and more humid, so can't rule out spotty diurnally driven convection.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the Grt Lks should result in showery weather Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, latest medium range guidance shows a surface high parked along the New England coast, which will likely keep Central and Eastern PA relatively stable, with a limited risk of severe weather. The most concentrated showers and possible tsra should come with the passage of the low level jet just ahead of the cold/occluded front passage Wed PM into early Thursday. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed-Thu is around a half inch.
Latest GEFS and EPS indicate drier weather Friday/Saturday, as the low level jet/plume of highest pwats shift east of PA with the exiting cold/occluded front. However, scattered, diurnally- driven showers appear probable, especially over the NW Mtns, associated with the deep upper trough/closed low parked over the Grt Lks.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
For the 06Z TAF package, no big changes from the 00Z set.
The airmass is very dry, so lower conditions may form a bit later than guidance would indicate for late Sunday.
Earlier discussion below.
VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Sunday with high (> 90%)
confidence. A high-level (10-15kft) SCT-to-BKN deck is expected to traverse across the area during the overnight period with some lighter winds and dry air limiting any fog potential overnight into Sunday morning. After 15Z Sunday, some lower level clouds (~5000ft AGL) will move into the western terminals (BFD/JST) ahead of scattered rain showers with some potential for lower visibilities. Rain showers will then overspread across the central mountains after 18Z Sunday but not quite reach the eastern airfields by 00Z Monday. As the showers become more widespread lower cigs will begins to encroach in the west as well with MVFR ceilings possible for BFD/JST. Scattered showers will linger into the early morning hours on Monday before tapering off and allowing for fog to develop as clearing occurs.
Outlook...
Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.
Tue-Thu...SHRA and TSRA at times with restrictions possible.
CLIMATE
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings
Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring
Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring
Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring
Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFIG CLEARFIELDLAWRENCE,PA | 15 sm | 31 min | N 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 30.06 | |||
| KUNV UNIVERSITY PARK,PA | 20 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 54°F | 48°F | 82% | 30.06 |
State College, PA,
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