Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:31 PM   Moonset 2:08 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 341 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
.small craft exercise caution - ..small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning - .
Today - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms early this morning. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 10 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 9 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening. Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 341 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis - High pressure to the north of florida and developing low pressure over the western gulf of mexico will setup increasing easterly flow today and Tuesday. Winds will increase to small craft exercise caution levels at times today, and continue to build tonight to advisory levels over the gulf waters. Easterly flow will continue through the rest of the week at around or above small craft advisory levels. Thunderstorm chances will increase late in the week as moisture builds.

FXUS62 KTBW 170724 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Strong surface high pressure centered off the Atlantic seaboard is ridging southwest into the southeastern US, setting up an easterly flow regime over the forecast area that will hold through the week and into the weekend. Drier air is filling in aloft from the northeast today, which will limit rain chances for much of the area, with the exception of southwest Florida which could see higher rain chances as moisture streams west into the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday and Wednesday, a couple plumes of moisture will shift west into Florida from the Atlantic, allowing rain chances to begin to creep back upwards.

Thursday into Friday, global models are continuing to show an area of low pressure developing and shifting west somewhere into the east coast just north of Florida late Thursday night or Friday.
There is still a fair amount of model uncertainty with this system with the track, strength of the low, and timing...but there is a decent amount of agreement on increasing moisture and rain chances Thursday through the weekend under continued easterly flow.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, although some MVFR ceilings will be possible around sunrise this morning, mainly over southwest Florida around KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW. A few showers or storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours, but chances are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

High pressure holding north of Florida will keep generally easterly winds in place over the coastal waters through the week. Wind speeds will increase today and Tuesday in response to a tightening pressure gradient between this high pressure and a developing area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico, with Small Craft Exercise Caution winds expected at times today. Wind speeds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels tonight through Tuesday morning, and hold near or above advisory levels through the rest of the week. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in the vicinity of daily thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday and Friday as a tropical wave pushes west into Florida from the Atlantic.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

No humidity concerns. High dispersion indices are expected each afternoon through the first half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 76 93 77 / 10 0 20 20 FMY 92 76 94 77 / 20 10 30 20 GIF 91 74 91 75 / 10 10 30 20 SRQ 94 75 95 77 / 10 0 30 20 BKV 93 71 94 73 / 10 0 20 10 SPG 93 80 94 80 / 10 0 30 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

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Point Ybel
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:23 AM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:21 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:19 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel, San Carlos Bay Entrance, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.21 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:19 PM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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