Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 5:47 AM   Moonset 10:07 PM

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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 259 Pm Edt Fri Jun 7 2024
Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 3 seconds. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds, becoming W 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening. Mon - W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 259 Pm Edt Fri Jun 7 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A series of weak low pressure systems impact the region through early next week as broad high pressure slowly builds in from the southwest. High pressure then follows for the middle of next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 071920 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure persists over the area, with a cold front expected to move through on Sunday, followed by a series of weaker cold fronts Monday and Tuesday. High pressure then builds in for the middle of next week. A cold front may approach for late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A drier air mass will advect over the area through tonight in the wake of an earlier cold front. A few showers may linger into the early evening in response to a short wave rotating around the base of a broader trough, but given the shallow and diurnal nature of the showers, expect activity to largely wane after sunset. Overnight temperatures will be cooler than the previous night with the change in air mass, but close to climatological normals.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Weak ridging aloft and broad westerly flow will keep drier conditions across the area Saturday, with seasonable highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80. Humidity levels will remain subjectively low as dew points lower into the low to mid 50s.

Overnight, another wave of low pressure approaches, with deep layer flow becoming more oriented from the south to southwest, allowing for an increase in moisture. The subsequent increase in cloud cover overnight will once again keep low temperatures a few degrees higher than Friday night, while rain chances may increase from the northwest by Sunday morning.



LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
**Key Points**

*Scattered shower threat with a frontal passage on Sunday, followed by primarily dry and seasonably warm conditions for early to mid week.

*Warming trend possible for late week.

Good model agreement in mean troughing through the early week period with a portion of a large closed upper low over Quebec on Sunday, splitting into the NE US Monday/Tuesday, before sliding offshore midweek.

At the surface, models in good agreement with a cold front approaching Sun afternoon and crossing Sun aft/eve ahead of the approaching upper low. Strong upper mid level shortwave and upper level jet lift just, combined with sufficient moisture pooling ahead of front, support scattered showers translating across the region Sunday morning into afternoon. Early approach of front and mid-level capping not supportive for tstms, but a few downpours possible in the late morn/early aft with weak instability below mixed phases region.

Subsequent weaker cold frontal passages likely Monday and Tuesday advecting in a slightly drier/cooler Canadian airmass as weakening closed low moves overhead. This will bring potential for iso aft shower activity off higher terrain and/or along sea breeze boundaries.

Brief shortwave ridging on Wednesday appears to give way to a mean zonal upper flow for late week. Generally dry conditions for mid week as high pressure builds in from the west and then offshore.

Model spread increases with inherent forecast uncertainty for the Day 5-7 time period. There is potential for a late week frontal passage/s depending on shortwave timing in the upper flow.

As for temps, have gone with NBM/NBM 50th percentile blend through the period based on recent performance and synoptic regime. Temps within a degree or two of seasonable through early to mid week, then potential for temps to warm a few to several degrees above seasonable mid to late week.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Weak high pressure builds in slowly to the southwest through Saturday afternoon. A weak surface trough remains inland this afternoon.

VFR. There is a low chance of a few showers at KSWF through this afternoon, with conditions remaining VFR.

Winds W/SW this afternoon, with local sea breezes. Winds become more W/NW this evening, and remain through tonight, less than 10 kt.
Winds increase Saturday morning with gusts developing.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon-Sunday. VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of showers late Saturday night through Sunday. Sunday, W winds G20- 25kt.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers late Tuesday.
Monday, W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Saturday. Potential for marginal nearshore SCA gusts on Sunday aft and Monday aft, with ocean seas remaining at 3 to 4 ft in SW flow. Latest model guidance has trended toward a weak pressure regime for mid to late next week, indicating a return to sub-SCA conds.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal flood statements remain in effect for this evening's high tide cycle. These are for southern Nassau and the western LI Sound, as high astronomical tides and a southerly wind component this afternoon may lead to some isolated minor benchmarks being reached. Steven's median guidance was near or just over observed values for last night's high tide for points in these areas, and so weighted this more heavily in the forecast. Should newer guidance increase values, advisories may be needed especially across the western LI Sound. Some question for Saturday's afternoon high tide cycle as well, as some locations may again just touch minor benchmarks.

For the Atlantic ocean beaches a moderate to locally high rip current risk continues into this evening. Moderate rip risk expected for Saturday with a mix of residual 3 ft@7 sec swells and 2-3 ft SW wind waves. Moderate rips risk likely once again on Sunday with residual 1 to 2 ft S swells and building 2 to 3 ft SW wind waves.
This is supported by the latest RCMOS.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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South Jamesport
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Fri -- 12:43 AM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:34 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:20 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:34 AM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:34 AM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:41 PM EDT     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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