Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 2:15 PM   Moonset 1:32 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 543 Am Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Today - N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 543 Am Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the northwest today, moving overhead Sunday morning and offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week. A few weak disturbances may approach from the north next weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 150950 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 550 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the northwest today, moving overhead Sunday morning and offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week. A few weak disturbances may approach from the north next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The cold front is now offshore and will continue to head east this morning. The upper level trough axis can be seen in water vapor satellite imagery passing through the area currently. The whole area is now dry with any lingering showers now offshore.
Continued the mention of fog in the forecast for western areas as they cleared out first and fog was able to develop.

As the upper level trough shifts east this morning, heights rise as a ridge builds over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the northwest. The airmass building in will be drier and a bit cooler than the past several days. Highs today will likely top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. With dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s, the air will have a comfortable feel.

Given the dry airmass and mostly clear skies/some thin high clouds, radiational cooling should help the usual cool spots get down to the upper 40s/low 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Heights continue to rise aloft through Monday night. High pressure at the surface will move overhead early Sunday and then offshore by Sunday evening, but will remain in control through the week.

The short term period will be dry and mostly sunny. Some energy rounding the upper level ridge will pass overhead Sunday afternoon/evening, but will likely just result in some high clouds.

Temperatures Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler than Saturday, with the same low dewpoints. As the high shifts offshore later on Sunday a return flow sets up and moisture increases. Dewpoints return to the mid 60s on Monday, with highs in the 80s for most.
This will likely be the last day before a heat wave sets up for the rest of the week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
**Key Point**

* A long duration heat wave is expected during most of next week beginning on Tuesday and lasting until Friday or Saturday. Heat index values of greater than 95 degrees are expected for much of the area during this time.

A strengthening deep layer ridge will be positioned over the East Coast by Tuesday with a surface high pressure system over the Western Atlantic. Low level flow on the west side of the high pressure will allow for a southerly or southwesterly flow through much of the extended period. This will allow for the advection of both low level moisture and warm air.

The upper level ridge continues strengthening in intensity through the middle and end of the week, eventually peaking in strength by Thursday with 500mb heights between 594 and 600dam. This highly anomalous strength in the upper level ridge will allow for a prolonged heat event to take place over the entire Northeast. By Tuesday, surface highs will be in the 90s for much of the interior portions of the area with coastal locations in the middle to upper 80s.

Heat persists through the week, eventually allowing temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 90s for interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and southern CT. It would not be that surprising if some locations hit 100 degrees, especially into Thursday and Friday. Because this is a fairly early season heat wave, relatively cooler waters only in the 60s will shelter Long Island and immediate coastal Connecticut from experiencing the worst of the heat, but may result in some enhanced surface moisture over these areas. Heat index values will likely be greater than 95 degrees during each afternoon from Tuesday through at least Friday for everywhere except Long Island. This may eventually facilitate heat headlines.

Given the duration and intensity of the anticipated heat, it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat- sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A cold front pushes through the terminals into early morning.
High pressure then builds into the area from the north into Sunday.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance of localized brief MVFR/IFR cigs or visibilities before 10Z for coastal terminals.

Winds may be light and variable before the cold front provides a mainly N/NW flow around 10kt. There is also a chance for a few gusts 15-20kt behind the cold front, but that is more likely after 12Z.
Gusts diminish in the later afternoon Saturday as high pressure works in from the Great Lakes.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Northerly wind gusts could develop sooner than forecast behind the cold front overnight, but should not be frequent until late morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Waves slowly build through tonight, but will likely remain below 5 ft. With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters this weekend thru early next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Rip current conditions improve today, with a moderate risk as winds shift offshore. The moderate risk will continue on Sunday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Bay Shore
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Sat -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:39 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Fire Island Coast Guard Station
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Sat -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:40 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:21 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:29 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:57 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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