Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM   Moonset 12:25 AM

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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 158 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight, then becoming N late. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 158 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a cold front approaches from the north today. This cold front will cross the waters early Saturday morning, with high pressure building toward the area during the remainder of the weekend. This high will shift offshore early next week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 141942 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 342 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will push through the region tonight with a few showers and storms possible. Dry with seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a very warm to hot and mainly dry pattern next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers and storms will be possible this evening and tonight.

A cold front will gradually approach late this afternoon and then crosses the area this evening into the overnight hours.
CAMS show scattered showers and storms developing ahead of and with the front as it passes with the greatest coverage expected to be N-NE of Richmond over to the Eastern Shore. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm later this evening and tonight from Caroline County and the Northern Neck across to the lower MD Eastern Shore where SPC has us highlighted for a MRGL risk of severe. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. Any lingering showers/storms near the coast should move offshore after midnight. Overnight low temps range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and lower temperatures (seasonable) return for Saturday into Sunday.

Cooler on Saturday with pleasant/tolerable humidity values behind the front. Highs rise into the mid to upper 80s but dew points mix out into the 50s to low 60s during the afternoon.
A mostly sunny sky will prevail with northerly winds continuing through the afternoon. Could be a bit breezy, especially near the coast in the morning. Continued dry and pleasant Saturday night with lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Surface high pressure to the north will move offshore on Sunday as an upper ridge builds NE. High temps will be a degree or two above what we will see on Saturday with highs in the upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s near the coast. Dew points remain comfortable in the upper 50s to low 60s. Low temps Sunday night in the low/mid 60s inland with upper 60s likely for coastal locations.

For Monday, a 595dm upper ridge centers itself over the mid- Atlantic region while sfc high pressure offshore brings SW flow to the area. This will allow for temperatures to rise above normal with continued dry conditions. Highs will be in low 90s inland with 80s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry weather returns next week, likely persisting through the end of the forecast period.

Models continue to depict an upper level ridge building across the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS next week. Global models have come into decent agreement showing the center of the upper ridge orienting just N and NW of the local area by the middle of next week. The ECMWF continues to be the most bullish with upper heights but the GFS/GEM and their ensembles generally agree that a period of hot temperatures will occur across the area next week. With the core of the upper ridge displaced to the N, will maintain some degree of onshore flow across the area. Highs should be into the low-mid 90s well inland, but will tend to stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. The continental origin of the ridge will likely mitigate heat indices. The current forecast has heat indices through midweek right around the actual air temperatures, generally in the low to mid 90s. An inverted upper trough moves westward underneath the upper ridge late week which could trigger a few storms over our southern CWA Overnight lows slowly creep up through the week and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

A weak front will be advancing southward across the area during the late evening and overnight period. This front will likely touch off isolated to widely scattered showers and storms, especially from just north of KRIC over to KSBY between 00-06z Sat. Included VCSH at SBY where confidence is highest. MVFR CIGs are also forecast at KSBY from 06z-12z Sat, with VFR prevailing elsewhere outside of isolated shower/storm influences. Winds will be light from the S-SE through this evening before the frontal passage causes winds to shift around out of the N early Sat morning.

Winds will average 10 kt or less with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies Sunday into early next week as high pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

MARINE
As of 340 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will cross the waters tonight. Northerly winds behind the front are expected to gust to around 20 kt for a few hours Saturday morning.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected through the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

Southerly winds have diminished to around 10 kt this afternoon and will remain in that range today as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest this evening. The cold front is forecast to cross the waters early Saturday morning, allowing winds to turn northerly. There will be a weak surge behind this front with the strongest of the winds expected to occur from between sunrise Saturday through early afternoon with gusts to around 20 kt for a few hours. Guidance has backed off on the wind strength on this package with most guidance keeping the winds below 20 kt so will continue the previous forecast and not raise SCA headlines at this time for Saturday.

Sub- SCA conditions are expected Sat aftn- Sun with NE to E winds around 10 kt as high pressure builds southward into the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday and then pulls eastward into the Western North Atlantic waters from Sunday through Wednesday next week. As the high shifts offshore, winds to become S-SE at 10 - 15 kt for the early part of next week.

Seas generally 2-3 ft over the ocean with 1-3 ft waves on the bay through the period, although seas will briefly build to 4 ft by mid to late Saturday morning behind the cold front.

CLIMATE
Record highs are not expected Friday, but are listed below for reference as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Dixie
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:01 AM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:57 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:40 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dixie, Piankatank River, Virginia, Tide feet

Belleville
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:21 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:45 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:00 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:26 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Belleville, Mobjack Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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