Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 2:42 AM   Moonset 3:54 PM

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FXUS64 KBMX 021223 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 723 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

This AM, an upper trough is over E Conus with C AL now in WRLY flow in its base. While we will still have some convection possible today and tonight associated with this trough, coverage should be decreasing overall. By Monday morning, the trough should continue EWD and reach the Atlantic Seaboard. This will result in upper ridging beginning to take hold over portions of E Conus. As this happens, we should transition to more isolated overall convection for Monday and more diurnally based. In addition, daytime temperatures should moderate some today and more so for Monday with less rainfall and overall decreasing cloud cover.

08

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

High pressure shifts to our east as weak upper level troughing pushes southeastward into the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon on Tuesday with the best chances across the northwestern half of Central AL due to proximity of the shortwave. The main trough axis will slide through the region Wednesday through Thursday leading to increased rain and thunderstorm coverage, especially in the afternoons.

As we approach the end of the week, uncertainty increases on the evolution of the main upper trough as guidance has been pretty consistent in showing a frontal boundary pushing southward through Central AL. However, the timing of that frontal passage has been quite variable leading to low confidence in the forecast for Friday into Saturday. The details of when the front will push through Central AL and what that means in terms of thunderstorm activity will need to be worked out in coming days when model guidance comes into better agreement on the timing.

25/Owen

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are noted at present. Conditions should begin to improve and become VFR between 15-19z. (S to N) Will continue to have isolated to scattered SHRA and a few TSRA at times as well as upper system progresses EWD. Winds will increase with mixing to be generally SRLY 4-6kts today with some variable higher gusts possible in storms. For tonight, they should become light and variable again. We lower rain chances tonight, but residual moisture around, we could see some patchy fog in the E late. Have an MVFR mention after 10z for ASN/ANB/TOI.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today.
Generally light southerly winds will persist through Tuesday. RH values will remain above 50 for the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 83 63 87 66 / 60 20 20 10 Anniston 83 65 87 67 / 50 20 20 10 Birmingham 84 67 87 69 / 30 20 20 10 Tuscaloosa 85 68 89 70 / 20 20 20 10 Calera 84 67 87 69 / 30 20 20 10 Auburn 80 67 84 69 / 40 30 20 10 Montgomery 84 67 86 69 / 40 20 20 10 Troy 84 66 86 68 / 40 20 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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