Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 1:58 AM   Moonset 2:28 PM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 225 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
.small craft exercise caution this morning - .
Today - East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots early this afternoon, then becoming north late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Sunday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and south 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 225 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds and elevated seas especially during the evening into overnight easterly surges with exercise caution headlines. High pressure weakens next week with winds and seas subsiding and the afternoon seabreeze returning.

FXUS62 KJAX 010703 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

NEAR TERM
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Southeasterly onshore flow today as high pressure remains situated over the Carolinas. This will bring another day of breezy conditions with winds ranging from 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph along inland locations. The onshore flow will help to push the Atlantic sea breeze well inland towards the I-75 corridor, where interaction with the Gulf sea breeze may lead to some shower or storm development during the late afternoon into early evening. Daytime temperatures are expected to get to the mid 80s along coast to the the I-95 corridor thanks to the onshore flow bringing in cool maritime air. Warmer temperatures reaching into the low 90s are expected for the farther inland locations towards the I-75 corridor. The overnight hours into Sunday will see temperatures fall into the upper 60s for locations west of the I-95 corridor, while coastal locations will only fall into the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Moisture will gradually spill in from the west into early next week as high pressure steadily builds toward Bermuda resulting in local steering flow to shift southeasterly. This will send the Atlantic sea breeze well inland each afternoon. On Sunday, spotty showers are possible from I-95 west with best chances 30-40% along the I-75 corridor where the Gulf breeze will be pinned on Sunday. Steering flow veers a bit more southerly by Monday allowing a bit more progression of the Gulf breeze, shifting the corridor of better rain chances between HWY 301 and I-75. Diurnal instability will be on the rise as low level moisture begins to increase; however, mid level lapse rates should be fairly weak given mid level warming behind a departing shortwave. Mainly anticipate showers but have maintain isolated garden-variety t'storm mention at this time each afternoon.

Heat will rebuild Sunday and into Monday with inland highs pushing to the upper 80s and low 90s once again. Due to the onshore steering, coastal areas will read cooler, around the mid 80s.
Comfortable morning lows will persist with readings in the mid 60s inland and low 70s at the coast each morning.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Moistening will elevate diurnal instability and storm chances through the lion's share of the upcoming work week. Fairly weak background flow pattern will ultimately lead to a sea breeze dominant pattern with the Atlantic sea breeze in control through Wednesday. By Thursday, steering flow will begin increase and turn southwesterly ahead of an approaching front. This will paint better chances across the First Coast locations into Friday as the Gulf sea breeze takes the reigns.

Though there is some uncertainty at this lead time, the aforementioned front will slow as it reaches the forecast area Friday night and may stall across northern FL through the weekend.
Overall, no significant signal of significant rainfall or severe t'storm event through next week.

Temperatures will build under amplifying ridge aloft, with readings in the low to mid 90s through Wednesday which will spread to the beaches Thursday and Friday as that southwesterly flow ensues.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds will steadily become breezy, with the occasional wind gust, as southeasterly onshore flow begin to increase around 15-16Z, with coastal sites expected to see the higher wind speeds. Winds will begin to taper off near 00Z.



MARINE
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

High pressure will build off of the Carolinas this afternoon into Sunday with winds turning more southeasterly. The high will shift near Bermuda early next week with lighter southeasterly winds turning southerly midweek with isolated thunderstorms returning to the waters in the afternoon and early evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday with winds turning southwesterly.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today, with high end moderate for NE FL beaches as southeasterly onshore flow brings the risk close to high. Moderate risk remains on Sunday as onshore flow begins to weaken.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fairly dry conditions continue for inland zones today with gradually moistening conditions through the week with afternoon humidities trending higher day after day. Easterly winds and deep mixing, especially inland, will lead to pockets of high dispersion. Dispersions moderate Sunday and Monday as transport flow trends lighter. Beginning Sunday and continuing through the upcoming week, spotty afternoon convection should develop along the sea breezes each day with isolated t'storms possible. Coverage of showers will not be substantial and unlikely to saturate the currently dry fuels.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Water levels continue to recede along lower portions of the Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson, where water levels will fall below flood stage by this afternoon to evening. Water levels have already begun to recede along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor flooding will continue through most of the upcoming week due to backwater flooding effects from action level water levels along lower portions of the Suwannee River.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 67 89 67 / 10 10 30 10 SSI 85 73 84 72 / 0 10 20 20 JAX 87 68 88 69 / 0 10 30 10 SGJ 87 71 86 71 / 0 0 20 20 GNV 89 66 90 67 / 10 10 40 10 OCF 91 67 91 68 / 10 10 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Buffalo Bluff
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Sat -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida (3), Tide feet

Welaka
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:10 AM EDT     3.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     3.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:54 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:26 PM EDT     3.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:36 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     3.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (4), Tide feet

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