Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 2:18 AM   Moonset 2:50 PM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 1105 Pm Edt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure will be in control through Saturday night. A weak disturbance will approach late Sunday and move across Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure will then take control of the weather through Wednesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 010601 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 201 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be in control much of the weekend. A weak disturbance will approach late Sunday and move across Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure will then take control of the weather through Wednesday before a cold front approaches on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Skies remain clear overnight under building high pressure.
Temperatures dip into the low-50s to low-60s for most, warmer than last night, under light NW flow. Dry conditions prevail everywhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
Surface high pressure centers itself over the area on Saturday with a ridge aloft. Temperatures continue to warm into the low/mid-80s for most about 5-10 degrees above average. Mostly sunny skies stay in place Saturday. A sea breeze may be more likely on Saturday due to the warmer temperatures, leading to temperatures dropping after its passage in the mid-late afternoon for many locations near the coast.

As the ridge gradually weakens aloft and high pressure weakens in response to an approaching shortwave, cloud cover may increase very late into overnight Saturday. Ahead of the approaching shortwave, clouds will be mid-high level. Lows may not be affected much by them on Saturday night with lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will be offshore on Sunday, while the upper ridge flattens Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave moves across the area. The surface reflection shows weak low pressure passing just south of the forecast area. There is a chance of showers with this system, but there is also evidence of mid level capping. The 12Z ECMWF is still one of the more aggressive solutions with a convective complex dropping from NW to SE across the forecast area.
Not quite buying into that solution at this time.

Heights then build with upper ridging reestablishing itself through midweek with surface high pressure just off the Northeast coast. A frontal system then approaches for the end of the week as a northern stream upper vortex carves out a trough across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. There are some timing differences in the guidance as can be expected this far out in time. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast from Wednesday night into Thursday, with Thursday looking like the wetter of the days.

While pretty much ran with the NBM for temperatures, noted in the box and whisker plots that the deterministic is generally running at the 25th percentile or even lower, especially through Tuesday. Yet, there are some large spreads between the 25th and 75th, with the median warmer in the 80s for most locations. However, having trouble going closer to the median as there is often ridging aloft with a subsidence inversion and onshore S/SE flow. The warmest day at this time looks to be Sunday, with closer to normal temperatures for the second half of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure continues to move into the region during the TAF period, with its center south of the area late Saturday into Saturday night.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Wind speeds are expected to be mainly near or less than 10 kts much of the TAF period. Wind direction will initially be NW, or more variable going into early Saturday with winds becoming more W-SW with some coastal terminals expected to a sea breeze for afternoon into early evening.

There is uncertainty with the timing of the sea breeze, making for a lower confidence wind direction forecast Saturday. KJFK, KLGA, KISP and KGON have highest chances of getting sea breezes. KBDR, KHPN, KEWR and KTEB have low chances of getting sea breezes.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for wind direction Saturday afternoon depending on the timing of the sea breeze. Sea breeze arrival time could be off by 1 to 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night-Sunday Night: VFR through the day Sunday. MVFR or lower possible in showers Sunday night.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible late in the day into Wednesday night in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through late next week, with seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

The Race
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Sat -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT     2.54 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:35 AM EDT     -2.93 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     2.94 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:11 PM EDT     -3.33 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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