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FXUS64 KEWX 062326 AAA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Some low clouds have held on in the southwestern CWA with mostly clear skies across the remainder of the area. Temperatures are in the upper 80s and low 90s with highs today several degrees higher.
Dewpoints are slightly lower and with clouds hanging on in the southwest, current thinking is still no need for a Heat Advisory today. There are some thunderstorms well west of the Rio Grande, but not expecting these to get anywhere close to the CWA For tonight, the slightly drier air will lead to lows in the lower 70s in the east, but moisture and low clouds will lead to continued to upper 70s to near 82 degrees in the Rio Grande Counties.

Tomorrow will be dry with highs back in the middle 90s to 104 degrees out west. Dewpoints will stay below critical values and heat indices will be less than advisory levels once again. Southeast surface winds are pretty light today, but should be slightly higher tomorrow. Tomorrow night skies should be mostly clear for all areas with lows in the lower to middle 70s for most of the area. This could finally end bring sub 80 degree temperatures to Del Rio.
Otherwise, no major concerns are expected during the short-term period of the forecast.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

By Saturday we will start to see some slight pattern shifts to where the upper level ridge currently centered over the NM/TX area will move SE across TX and into the northern gulf by late in the weekend.
This will setup some storm activity to likely form over OK and N Texas along a weak frontal boundary. This boundary is forecast to stall to our north in North or Central Texas as depicted in the models as well as on WPCs surface forecast maps. This time of year, outflow boundaries can generate enough lift for storms and aid to reinforce these early June weak cold fronts. So as long as this feature is near the northern/western areas of the CWA on Monday...will keep the slight chances of POP in the forecast during the day on Monday.

By the middle of next week, the upper ridge will re-establish over northern Mexico into the front range of the Rockies...setting up some more NW flow across the Southern Plains. While this might keep N TX and OK active again with storms like the past few weeks...there doesnt appear to be much in the way of rain triggers for us except if we get lucky with some outflow boundaries. Rest of the forecast will be zero pop and temps mainly in the 90s...low 100s along the Rio Grande as the ridge axis shifts to more of a SW to NE origin over the state, limiting our influence from any NW flow events.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through the forecast period. An east to southeast flow between 5 and 10 knots are forecast for the evening. A light southeasterly flow is forecast to dominate the overnight through Friday morning time frame. The southeasterly flow continues into the afternoon with winds mixing down to the surface and increasing to a 5 to 10 knot range. KDRT could end up with gusty winds around 20 knots mid to late afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 73 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 71 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 83 105 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 100 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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