Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vidalia, LA
June 2, 2024 9:24 PM CDT (02:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM Moonset 3:15 PM |
FXUS64 KJAN 030027 AAA AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 727 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
In strong contrast to most deterministic guidance, an MCS has taken shape and is maintaining itself well as it pushes east across Northeast Texas as of 7 PM. Additionally, some sea breeze convection is continuing along a line from Corsicana, TX southeastward to the Lake Charles, LA area. The air mass north of the sea breeze and east of the advancing MCS is marked by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -8 to -10. A gradient of PWAT is aligned parallel to the mid-level flow and deep-layer wind shear (though flow is modest). Based on radar presentation and anticipating cold pool dynamics to sustain an east-southeast momentum for the MCS, have at least increased our POPs around midnight tonight into the early morning into the "chance" range.
Short-term high-res models are struggling to capture the situation with any more confidence, but latest few runs of the HRRR seem to be reasonable with the general idea. As was the case last evening, the MCS may be choked off of instability or start to compete with the lingering sea breeze convection as the two areas interact.
That might limit the farther eastward extent, but will continue to monitor the trends this evening. If storms do reach our area with some organization, a damaging wind threat and heavy rainfall are possible especially in northeast/central LA and southwest MS. /NF/
DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Monday:
The active weather period will pick back up on Monday as shower/thunderstorm chances return across the CWA Another shortwave disturbance from central TX is expected to push eastward towards our area. As the shortwave approaches, model guidance is suggesting that a MCV will approach the ArkLaMiss area in the afternoon and evening hours and help to initiate storms. With dewpoints in the 70s, decent instability, and lapse rates, some storms could be strong to severe. A "Marginal" risk for severe weather was expanded to include areas west of I-55. High temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees are expected.
/SW/
Monday night through Saturday night: An active weather pattern will continue through most of the upcoming week with perturbed westerlies having the greatest influence on our forecast. As has been the case recently, mid level flow will be more than sufficient for organized convective systems, and moisture/instability will occasionally support damaging wind and heavy rainfall threats.
The biggest challenge will be forecasting the timing of any systems, and it continues to look like the mid to late week time frame will be the primary focus for a more significant convective system to impact the area. With the upper level pattern becoming more northwesterly and cyclonic, a cold front is expected to approach the area Wednesday as a stronger perturbation crosses the forecast area. Cold air aloft combined with a hot and humid boundary layer will provide a favorable environment for strong to severe convective wind during peak heating, so we'll be monitoring for potential convective systems and ramp up the messaging as confidence increases. It seems late Wed/Thu/early Fri are when the global models show the strongest convective signals.
Thereafter, guidance is bouncing around a good bit between different solutions with some showing drier while others keep it more warm and humid, and perhaps active in terms of convection into the weekend. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Confidence on coverage and timing of SHRA or TSRA activity throughout he period is too low to include in the TAFs at this time for most sites, however typical seasonal pattern of increasing chances during the 18Z Monday to 00Z Tuesday time frame is expected somewhere in the forecast area. Will update TAFs with timing or impacts as confidence increases. Otherwise, some low stratus or patchy BR could produce MVFR conditions at a few sites between the 09Z to 15Z Monday time frame. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 68 88 71 90 / 10 30 30 30 Meridian 67 89 70 90 / 10 30 20 40 Vicksburg 70 89 73 90 / 20 30 40 20 Hattiesburg 69 90 72 91 / 10 50 40 30 Natchez 69 88 71 90 / 30 50 40 20 Greenville 71 89 74 90 / 10 30 40 20 Greenwood 69 90 73 90 / 0 20 30 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 727 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
In strong contrast to most deterministic guidance, an MCS has taken shape and is maintaining itself well as it pushes east across Northeast Texas as of 7 PM. Additionally, some sea breeze convection is continuing along a line from Corsicana, TX southeastward to the Lake Charles, LA area. The air mass north of the sea breeze and east of the advancing MCS is marked by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -8 to -10. A gradient of PWAT is aligned parallel to the mid-level flow and deep-layer wind shear (though flow is modest). Based on radar presentation and anticipating cold pool dynamics to sustain an east-southeast momentum for the MCS, have at least increased our POPs around midnight tonight into the early morning into the "chance" range.
Short-term high-res models are struggling to capture the situation with any more confidence, but latest few runs of the HRRR seem to be reasonable with the general idea. As was the case last evening, the MCS may be choked off of instability or start to compete with the lingering sea breeze convection as the two areas interact.
That might limit the farther eastward extent, but will continue to monitor the trends this evening. If storms do reach our area with some organization, a damaging wind threat and heavy rainfall are possible especially in northeast/central LA and southwest MS. /NF/
DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Monday:
The active weather period will pick back up on Monday as shower/thunderstorm chances return across the CWA Another shortwave disturbance from central TX is expected to push eastward towards our area. As the shortwave approaches, model guidance is suggesting that a MCV will approach the ArkLaMiss area in the afternoon and evening hours and help to initiate storms. With dewpoints in the 70s, decent instability, and lapse rates, some storms could be strong to severe. A "Marginal" risk for severe weather was expanded to include areas west of I-55. High temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees are expected.
/SW/
Monday night through Saturday night: An active weather pattern will continue through most of the upcoming week with perturbed westerlies having the greatest influence on our forecast. As has been the case recently, mid level flow will be more than sufficient for organized convective systems, and moisture/instability will occasionally support damaging wind and heavy rainfall threats.
The biggest challenge will be forecasting the timing of any systems, and it continues to look like the mid to late week time frame will be the primary focus for a more significant convective system to impact the area. With the upper level pattern becoming more northwesterly and cyclonic, a cold front is expected to approach the area Wednesday as a stronger perturbation crosses the forecast area. Cold air aloft combined with a hot and humid boundary layer will provide a favorable environment for strong to severe convective wind during peak heating, so we'll be monitoring for potential convective systems and ramp up the messaging as confidence increases. It seems late Wed/Thu/early Fri are when the global models show the strongest convective signals.
Thereafter, guidance is bouncing around a good bit between different solutions with some showing drier while others keep it more warm and humid, and perhaps active in terms of convection into the weekend. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Confidence on coverage and timing of SHRA or TSRA activity throughout he period is too low to include in the TAFs at this time for most sites, however typical seasonal pattern of increasing chances during the 18Z Monday to 00Z Tuesday time frame is expected somewhere in the forecast area. Will update TAFs with timing or impacts as confidence increases. Otherwise, some low stratus or patchy BR could produce MVFR conditions at a few sites between the 09Z to 15Z Monday time frame. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 68 88 71 90 / 10 30 30 30 Meridian 67 89 70 90 / 10 30 20 40 Vicksburg 70 89 73 90 / 20 30 40 20 Hattiesburg 69 90 72 91 / 10 50 40 30 Natchez 69 88 71 90 / 30 50 40 20 Greenville 71 89 74 90 / 10 30 40 20 Greenwood 69 90 73 90 / 0 20 30 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHEZ HARDYANDERS FIELD NATCHEZADAMS COUNTY,MS | 8 sm | 28 min | S 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 73°F | 84% | 29.95 |
Jackson/Brandon, MS,
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