Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clarksville, VA
June 2, 2024 10:33 PM EDT (02:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM Moonset 3:26 PM |
FXUS61 KAKQ 030144 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 944 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough will bring the chance for a few showers this evening into tonight. Afterwards, a weak surface low will allow for scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon.
Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 930 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Isolated/scattered light showers prevail overnight, bringing minimal rainfall amounts.
The latest WX analysis indicates a weak shortwave tracking across the region, with scattered light showers mainly affecting the NW 1/2 of the CWA QPF amounts have been very light thus far; obs within the CWA are just reporting a trace with a few hundredths over the past few hrs NW of the FA. The highest precip chances shift toward the coast/eastern shore after 06Z, and the coverage may increase a bit between about 08-12Z across SE VA. Still, with little to no CAPE, have left thunder out of the forecast. Areal average precipitation amounts through tonight will generally be 0.10" or less. Overnight lows will mostly be in the mid to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers and storms are expected Monday afternoon. There is a threat for localized urban/poor drainage flooding across central and southeast Virginia.
- A few isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon.
Instability increases on Mon as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s with temps rising into the 80s. Weak NW flow aloft will prevail, and another weak shortwave will approach later Mon before tracking over the area Mon night-early Tue. A weak surface low likely over central VA Mon afternoon, allowing for enough surface convergence for scattered tstms in the afternoon. CAMs continue to show the highest coverage of convection along the I-64 Corridor, especially in SE VA.
Will maintain likely PoPs for areas generally along and E of I-95 and along I-64 in central to SE VA. Elsewhere, have chance PoPs as storm coverage is expected to be a bit less. With relatively slow storm motions expected given the weak deep-layer flow and moderately high (1.5-1.7") PW values, any storm will be capable of producing a quick 1-2" of rain. This would be enough to result in flooding of urban, suburban, and poor drainage areas. WPC has added a MRGL ERO for central and SE VA to account for the localized flash flood risk.
Not expecting that much in the way of severe wx but can't rule out gusts to 40-50 mph in the strongest storms due to wet microbursts.
Tstms quickly taper off late Mon evening with the loss of daytime heating.
High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to push inland. A few isolated showers/storms are possible mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with a slight drop in T/Td. As such, expect the shower/storm potential to shift W through the afternoon into the evening. Highs Tue aren't expected to change much from Mon (mid 80s) apart from the Eastern Shore which may only reach mid 70s E to around 80F W. Lows in the 60s are expected both nights.
Upper ridging briefly builds over the area Tue night-early Wed before moving just to our E by late Wed. Meanwhile, a rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into the Great Lakes at the same time. A cold front will approach from the NW, but likely won't cross the area until Thu night. Shortwave energy ahead of this trough will cross the area late Wednesday and will provide enough forcing for scattered tstms to form during the aftn (highest PoPs west of I-95)
and move east during the evening. Highs Wed mainly in the mid 80s (lower 80s on the ern shore).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers and storms are possible on Thursday.
- Drier weather prevails from Friday through the weekend.
- Seasonally warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday, then slightly cooler with lower humidity from Friday through the weekend.
A cutoff low likely forms over the Great Lakes by Wed and moves SE into the NE CONUS by late this week. At the surface, a cold front approaches and likely crosses the area Thu night. Scattered afternoon tstms are again possible on Thu, with the highest PoPs near the coast as the low-level flow becomes more westerly and dew points fall a bit. There is some uncertainty regarding coverage (especially inland)...and areas west of I-95 may very well be warm and dry on Thu. Will maintain low (15-30%) PoPs for mainly aftn/evening showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) Fri through the weekend with the upper low/cold pool aloft nearby even with the cold front SE of the area. However, not expecting that much in the way of coverage (and dry wx will prevail from Fri-Sun). Highs well into the 80s on Thu before falling back into the 80-85F range in most areas (with noticeably less humidity) from Fri through the weekend.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...
Mainly VFR conditions continue overnight and through the day Monday, though scattered showers and tstms increase in coverage late in the TAF period, especially across SE VA. Light showers tonight/early Monday are not expected to cause flight restrictions (though CIGs may approach MVFR levels Monday between 12-18Z at RIC/SBY. By Mon aftn, prevailing conditions outside of storms will be VFR, but storms will likely produce brief IFR to LIFR VSBYs in heavy rain Mon aftn/early evening. The strongest storms may also contain brief gusty winds. Otherwise, SSW winds will average 5-10 kt (or less)
overnight- Mon AM, and SW at around 10 kt during the day Monday.
Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont.
Otherwise, additional afternoon/evening tstms are possible on Wed/Thu.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Prevailing sub-SCA conditions forecast through Wednesday.
- Daily chances for storms over the waters, especially Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
- Low rip current risk Monday and Tuesday.
Mainly quiet conditions on the marine front this afternoon. S winds are averaging 10-15 kt, with a few obs in the 15-18 kt range in the upper bay. Winds should increase some areawide over the next few hours and will tend to become 15-20 kt on the coastal waters this evening into tonight. Similar to last night, there will likely be another S/SW surge in the bay tonight (best chance around ~6z/2 AM).
Winds may briefly gust to 20-25 kt for a time. Will again refrain from issuing headlines due to the brief/marginal nature. Quiet conditions again tomorrow (Monday) as a weakening boundary drops S through the waters. Winds should remain southerly 5-10 kt for most of the day before winds shift E or NE late Mon night into Tue morning. Scattered showers and storms Monday could also produce briefly higher winds and waves (SMWs will be issued as necessary).
An approaching cold front will kick up the southerly flow later Wednesday through Thursday. The highest winds (potential for 20+ kts) will be confined to the nrn coastal waters. Otherwise, winds will near 18 kt elsewhere and will probably eventually need a SCA for portions of the waters. Lighter winds and offshore flow expected Friday through the weekend.
Seas are 1-2 ft and waves 1 ft or less this aftn. Waves in the bay become ~2 ft (locally 3 ft) tonight w/ the elevated SW winds. Seas also increase to 2-3 ft (cannot rule out 4 ft seas out 20 nm across the N). Seas then fall off to 1-2 ft Mon night-early Tuesday, before becoming 2-3 ft Tue night through Wed. Potential for seas to become 3-4 ft Thu (again highest N).
The rip current risk is expected to be low through Tuesday. The rip risk likely increases to (at least) moderate Wed and Thu with nearshore waves increasing to around 3 ft, with the highest threat across the northern beaches where the wind and swell will be oriented more shore-normal.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 944 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough will bring the chance for a few showers this evening into tonight. Afterwards, a weak surface low will allow for scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon.
Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 930 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Isolated/scattered light showers prevail overnight, bringing minimal rainfall amounts.
The latest WX analysis indicates a weak shortwave tracking across the region, with scattered light showers mainly affecting the NW 1/2 of the CWA QPF amounts have been very light thus far; obs within the CWA are just reporting a trace with a few hundredths over the past few hrs NW of the FA. The highest precip chances shift toward the coast/eastern shore after 06Z, and the coverage may increase a bit between about 08-12Z across SE VA. Still, with little to no CAPE, have left thunder out of the forecast. Areal average precipitation amounts through tonight will generally be 0.10" or less. Overnight lows will mostly be in the mid to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers and storms are expected Monday afternoon. There is a threat for localized urban/poor drainage flooding across central and southeast Virginia.
- A few isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon.
Instability increases on Mon as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s with temps rising into the 80s. Weak NW flow aloft will prevail, and another weak shortwave will approach later Mon before tracking over the area Mon night-early Tue. A weak surface low likely over central VA Mon afternoon, allowing for enough surface convergence for scattered tstms in the afternoon. CAMs continue to show the highest coverage of convection along the I-64 Corridor, especially in SE VA.
Will maintain likely PoPs for areas generally along and E of I-95 and along I-64 in central to SE VA. Elsewhere, have chance PoPs as storm coverage is expected to be a bit less. With relatively slow storm motions expected given the weak deep-layer flow and moderately high (1.5-1.7") PW values, any storm will be capable of producing a quick 1-2" of rain. This would be enough to result in flooding of urban, suburban, and poor drainage areas. WPC has added a MRGL ERO for central and SE VA to account for the localized flash flood risk.
Not expecting that much in the way of severe wx but can't rule out gusts to 40-50 mph in the strongest storms due to wet microbursts.
Tstms quickly taper off late Mon evening with the loss of daytime heating.
High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to push inland. A few isolated showers/storms are possible mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with a slight drop in T/Td. As such, expect the shower/storm potential to shift W through the afternoon into the evening. Highs Tue aren't expected to change much from Mon (mid 80s) apart from the Eastern Shore which may only reach mid 70s E to around 80F W. Lows in the 60s are expected both nights.
Upper ridging briefly builds over the area Tue night-early Wed before moving just to our E by late Wed. Meanwhile, a rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into the Great Lakes at the same time. A cold front will approach from the NW, but likely won't cross the area until Thu night. Shortwave energy ahead of this trough will cross the area late Wednesday and will provide enough forcing for scattered tstms to form during the aftn (highest PoPs west of I-95)
and move east during the evening. Highs Wed mainly in the mid 80s (lower 80s on the ern shore).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers and storms are possible on Thursday.
- Drier weather prevails from Friday through the weekend.
- Seasonally warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday, then slightly cooler with lower humidity from Friday through the weekend.
A cutoff low likely forms over the Great Lakes by Wed and moves SE into the NE CONUS by late this week. At the surface, a cold front approaches and likely crosses the area Thu night. Scattered afternoon tstms are again possible on Thu, with the highest PoPs near the coast as the low-level flow becomes more westerly and dew points fall a bit. There is some uncertainty regarding coverage (especially inland)...and areas west of I-95 may very well be warm and dry on Thu. Will maintain low (15-30%) PoPs for mainly aftn/evening showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) Fri through the weekend with the upper low/cold pool aloft nearby even with the cold front SE of the area. However, not expecting that much in the way of coverage (and dry wx will prevail from Fri-Sun). Highs well into the 80s on Thu before falling back into the 80-85F range in most areas (with noticeably less humidity) from Fri through the weekend.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...
Mainly VFR conditions continue overnight and through the day Monday, though scattered showers and tstms increase in coverage late in the TAF period, especially across SE VA. Light showers tonight/early Monday are not expected to cause flight restrictions (though CIGs may approach MVFR levels Monday between 12-18Z at RIC/SBY. By Mon aftn, prevailing conditions outside of storms will be VFR, but storms will likely produce brief IFR to LIFR VSBYs in heavy rain Mon aftn/early evening. The strongest storms may also contain brief gusty winds. Otherwise, SSW winds will average 5-10 kt (or less)
overnight- Mon AM, and SW at around 10 kt during the day Monday.
Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont.
Otherwise, additional afternoon/evening tstms are possible on Wed/Thu.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Prevailing sub-SCA conditions forecast through Wednesday.
- Daily chances for storms over the waters, especially Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
- Low rip current risk Monday and Tuesday.
Mainly quiet conditions on the marine front this afternoon. S winds are averaging 10-15 kt, with a few obs in the 15-18 kt range in the upper bay. Winds should increase some areawide over the next few hours and will tend to become 15-20 kt on the coastal waters this evening into tonight. Similar to last night, there will likely be another S/SW surge in the bay tonight (best chance around ~6z/2 AM).
Winds may briefly gust to 20-25 kt for a time. Will again refrain from issuing headlines due to the brief/marginal nature. Quiet conditions again tomorrow (Monday) as a weakening boundary drops S through the waters. Winds should remain southerly 5-10 kt for most of the day before winds shift E or NE late Mon night into Tue morning. Scattered showers and storms Monday could also produce briefly higher winds and waves (SMWs will be issued as necessary).
An approaching cold front will kick up the southerly flow later Wednesday through Thursday. The highest winds (potential for 20+ kts) will be confined to the nrn coastal waters. Otherwise, winds will near 18 kt elsewhere and will probably eventually need a SCA for portions of the waters. Lighter winds and offshore flow expected Friday through the weekend.
Seas are 1-2 ft and waves 1 ft or less this aftn. Waves in the bay become ~2 ft (locally 3 ft) tonight w/ the elevated SW winds. Seas also increase to 2-3 ft (cannot rule out 4 ft seas out 20 nm across the N). Seas then fall off to 1-2 ft Mon night-early Tuesday, before becoming 2-3 ft Tue night through Wed. Potential for seas to become 3-4 ft Thu (again highest N).
The rip current risk is expected to be low through Tuesday. The rip risk likely increases to (at least) moderate Wed and Thu with nearshore waves increasing to around 3 ft, with the highest threat across the northern beaches where the wind and swell will be oriented more shore-normal.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCXE CHASE CITY MUNI,VA | 14 sm | 18 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 63°F | 73% | 30.05 | |
| KHNZ HENDERSONOXFORD,NC | 16 sm | 33 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.06 |
Tide / Current for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Petersburg
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:43 AM EDT 3.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:16 AM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:12 PM EDT 3.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:43 AM EDT 3.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:16 AM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:12 PM EDT 3.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.5 |
| 1 am |
| 3.6 |
| 2 am |
| 3.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 2.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.2 |
Chester
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:56 AM EDT 3.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:17 AM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:25 PM EDT 3.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:56 AM EDT 3.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:17 AM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:25 PM EDT 3.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.3 |
| 1 am |
| 3.5 |
| 2 am |
| 3.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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