Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 1:56 AM   Moonset 2:29 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 010612 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 112 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Today and Tonight/

A MCS with a well-defined cold pool is moving east across West Texas early this morning. Corfidi vectors indicate it should continue moving SE around 20 kts through the pre-dawn hours, gradually weakening as it moves into more unfavorable low-level inflow. We expect the leading edge of the cold pool to move into our westernmost counties north of I-20 around 3-4 AM. By this time, it should be sub-severe with wind gusts to around 30-40 mph, maybe a few storms, and a contracting area of stratiform precip. While a few showers are possible across North Texas after sunrise, most of the area will be precip-free early this morning.

The MCS will leave a stalled outflow boundary across the region as well as a remnant MCV somewhere across North Texas. Both of these features should serve as a source of ascent for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Since the guidance has been notoriously bad at handling these small-scale features this week, we are still uncertain where these features will be later today. Due to this, we have maintained broad-brushed 20-30 PoPs across much of the region this afternoon. We're more confident that some storms will develop today, but the low PoPs are due to lack of confidence regarding where the storms will be. We have slightly more confidence that most of the convection should take place along or east of I-35 with storms moving ESE after developing.

The parameter space for severe weather isn't off the charts like it was for much of last week, but there is still sufficient deep- layer shear and instability to support a low-end severe wind and hail risk. After the afternoon convection dissipates after sunset, we'll have to shift our attention west to another MCS that should move into western North Texas early Sunday morning.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 244 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ /Sunday Through Next Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through much of the forecast period, with zonal flow remaining in place through the end of the weekend through much of next week. On and off chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the middle of next week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible at times as well as convective complexes push into portions of North and Central Texas from the west and north. The threats with these additional rounds of activity will include damaging winds, large hail, and the continued potential for flash flooding. The tornado threat will be low but not zero. This will mostly hinge on the evolution of storms, which will more likely than not move through in the form of clusters. This would increase our potential for damaging winds, and elevated thunderstorms will of course have the potential for severe hail. Any remnant outflow boundaries or surface fronts will serve to increase the tornado potential locally should storms become surface based, but the mass majority of storms should remain elevated as strengthening cold pools dominate the region. That being said, overall confidence in any of this activity remains quite low as model guidance continues to offer a wide range of solutions. The only thing that is certain is this active pattern that we are currently in doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon. As has been the case for the last several days, specific timing, coverage, and hazards will be hard to narrow down and may continue to heavily rely on real-time observations and radar/satellite interpretation. Continue to check for updates as the forecast is sure to evolve as we move forward.

The other main talking point with the long term forecast involves the heat that will begin to make its return across the region through the end of next week. Afternoon highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s will allow heat indices to approach 105 degrees. Heat illness will become an increasing concern for those working outside, especially for our vulnerable populations.

Reeves

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

VFR and light southeast flow should prevail through most of the pre-dawn hours. The anvil of a convective complex over West Texas is currently moving over the region and will remain in place for much of the morning. The storms should weaken as they move into the western D10 ARR/DEP gates, with only a remnant outflow boundary remaining by the time it moves into D10 this morning.

The stalled boundary and a weak mid-level disturbance should help develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms over North Texas this afternoon. We have introduced VCTS to the TAFs to account for this, but we do not have high enough confidence that storms will take place over D10 itself to add a TS TEMPO at this time. Most storms should move east late in the afternoon and dissipate after sunset.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 88 74 88 74 / 5 30 20 30 30 Waco 70 89 74 87 74 / 5 20 10 20 20 Paris 66 86 69 86 71 / 5 30 20 40 30 Denton 67 87 72 87 72 / 10 30 20 30 30 McKinney 67 87 72 87 72 / 5 30 20 30 30 Dallas 70 89 74 89 74 / 5 30 20 30 30 Terrell 68 88 72 87 73 / 5 30 10 30 20 Corsicana 71 88 74 89 75 / 5 30 10 30 20 Temple 70 89 75 89 75 / 20 20 10 20 10 Mineral Wells 67 88 72 88 72 / 20 20 20 30 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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