Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 11:32 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 301 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late this morning and afternoon. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Sat - NW winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Mon - SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 301 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will ridge into the area through tonight while an area of low pressure moves northeast off the southeast coast. The high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting off the coast. A cold front will push across the area Saturday with high pressure building into the region in early next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 130800 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 400 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will ridge into the area through tonight while an area of low pressure moves northeast off the Southeast coast. The high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting off the coast. A cold front will push across the area Saturday with high pressure building into the region in early next week.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 330 AM Thu...High pressure will continue to ridge in from the NE as weak sfc low begins to develop and strengthen off the FL coast. NHC continues to monitor this disturbance, currently low probabilities of tropical development during the next 48 hrs. The low will gradually move NE off the FL/GA coast today while the high keeps ENC dry, with only bkn cirrus with sct afternoon strato cu. With the inc cloud cover today and easterly flow, temps near climo low to mid 80s coast and inland mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 330 AM Thu...The aforementioned low will move NE off the Carolina coast tonight, with just some iso to sct showers affecting coastal locales from Downeast Carteret through the OBX, highest chances Hatteras Island where 30-40% pops in place.
Instabilility will creep upwards through the overnight, and esp towards daybreak, and have included slight chc thunder mention for the immediate coast (Carteret through the ctrl/srn OBX), but most of the thunder threat should remain offshore. It will be very warm tonight, with lows in the 70s coast, to 60s interior, where breaks in the clouds are expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 4 AM Thursday...

Key Points:

- Low pressure scales NE'ward off SE coast Friday-Saturday bringing chances (20-30%) of rain along the coast

- Likely dry cold front moves through Saturday

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Friday through Sunday...Complicated setup in store, with a weak low trekking off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through the region. Friday the sfc low to our south moves NE'ward, likely along the gulf stream. Decent model spread exists on the exact location of the low as it approaches ENC. Most likely outcome is the center of the low remains around 100-200 miles offshore as it passes to our east. This outcome would result in minimal impacts for ENC.
The most recent Operational EMCWF run (6/13 00z) brings a weak low (~1005mb) closer to the coast than previously indicated, about 100 miles off of OBX. This looks to be the outlier compared to other EMCWF ensemble members, the vast majority of which keep the low ~200 miles offshore. Despite the continuing trend of the low well offshore, scattered precip chances have increased for coastal regions, now 30-40% Friday morning. A low track close to the coast, while not likely, would result in hazardous marine conditions, gusty winds, and more expansive and heavy rain, particularly for coastal regions. Trough and associated cold front will be moving through overnight Friday into Saturday morning. While likely to remain dry, this front will help push the low along, making it accelerate further NE and keeping any impacts from the low relatively short- lived. Friday now looks to be a tad bit warmer than Saturday, with apparent temperatures in the mid 90s. Saturday afternoon guidance is keying in on isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Onslow, Jones, Craven, and Carteret Counties along the sea breeze.
Handled this with a 15-20% PoP (Schc) between 18Z Saturday and and 00Z Sunday.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s. Unsure how this boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up, but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern . Fortunately half of the CONUS. This prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but forunately winds should remain light during this period with the high.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through this evening/...
As of 2 AM Thu...Pred VFR with light erly winds expected through the TAF period. Some patchy shallow fog with light to calm winds and increasing dewpoints for KEWN through early morning and have incl a TEMPO group for this threat. Bkn high clouds expected today, with some sct 4k diurnal strato cu developing in the afternoon. Any coastal showers will remain east of the terminals tonight as low pres moves northeastward and well offshore.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the long term, but if a sfc low currently projected to remain well offshore Friday- Saturday draws closer to the coast, rain chances and lower ceilings would become more favorable.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Thu...Increasing easterly flow today as low pressure begins to lift along the SE coast. Increased winds slightly from the previous forecast, mainly south of Hatteras where gradient will be stronger. E winds 10-20 kt south of Hatteras and 5-15 kt north. No SCA's expected as wind gusts will remain below 25 kt. Seas 2-4 ft will build to 3-5 ft, highest south of Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Friday through the weekend we have a lot of uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc low developing off the SE coast progresses. Potential for SCA gusts and elevated seas exists Friday through Sunday if the sfc low approaches closer to our nearshore waters, but confidence remains low at this point. Most likely outcome is the center of the low remains about 200 miles offshore along the Gulf Stream.
Cold front moves through early Saturday, pushing the low away to the NE Saturday. A secondary back door cold front moving through will then move through later Saturday. This sequence of events will result in rapid wind changes, and brief periods of gusty conditions right along and behind the fronts. Next week pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Ocracoke
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:14 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:55 PM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:00 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Morehead City, NC,