Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV
June 1, 2024 5:43 AM EDT (09:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM Moonset 2:32 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 010653 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 253 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
Exiting high pressure brings one more dry day, before disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the new work week, with a break on Monday, and above normal temperatures.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM Saturday...
Patchy mountain valley frost at deeper high-elevation mountain valley cold spots still appears plausible early this morning.
Elsewhere, river valley fog should not become quite as pronounced as early Friday morning, owing to the high cloud, a light puff just above the surface, and another day of drying.
Exiting high pressure will bring one more dry day today, although the process of sunshine being filtered and increasingly obscured by high cloud will be the harbinger of the next low pressure system arriving from the west. Clouds will lower and thicken tonight, with showers becoming likely at least across the middle Ohio Valley overnight.
The NAM suite and HIRES FV3 core evince a band of precipitation scooting all the way into the central Appalachians by dawn Sunday, with a break behind it in the HTS tristate and Tug Fork areas.
Elevated narrow CAPE may allow for at least in cloud lightning with a few rumbles of thunder, but of slightly greater concern are PW values of around 1.5 inches overspreading at least the middle Ohio Valley by dawn Sunday, on a 35-40 kt h85 theta-e feed from the southwest, with cloud tops possibly dropping below the ice in cloud level fostering the efficient warm rain process.
Central guidance evinces a warmer afternoon today, and then less of a ridge-valley split amid an increasingly cloudy, and, eventually, rainy night tonight.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM Saturday...
This period starts with a weak surface low passing just toward our north. This feature will drag a weak frontal boundary through which will be enough to support shower and thunderstorm activity, however looking at soundings with the lack of shear and instability, we are likely looking at sub-severe storms.
PWATs have increased along with long skinny CAPE coming into the equation which will support more rainfall and possibly heavy downpours and thankfully DCAPE is very low which will decrease the chances for downbursts.
The frontal boundary will pass by nightfall and then from there on weak high pressure both at the surface and loft will build in from the west for a short period on Monday. Unfortunately the weak high pressure will allow for some diurnal activity as far as shower and storms are concern. This will likely be confined to the mountains due to the elevated heat effect although we cannot rule out a possible storm elsewhere.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 AM Saturday...
For Tuesday, this day did a complete 180 degree switch from yesterday with going from being unsettled to fairly quiet weather with surface high pressure staying in the vicinity along with stronger ridging aloft. This equates to quieter weather for most of the day. However some activity may occur during the afternoon and evening hours and mostly confined to the mountains.
Models are in better agreement on timing with the next system to affect the area. This feature will bring a cold front associated with a parent low traversing across the Great Lakes.
This potent low will drop the frontal boundary down and slowly pass it through as the potent low becomes stronger and slides south not progressing toward the east, therefore slowly inching toward the area and not away.
Activity ahead of the aforementioned cold front will take place on Wednesday and then frontal passage will take place on Thursday if everything cooperates. Models then have the low dipping down and affecting the area with wrap around flow which will keep unsettled weather in the area for the weekend, according to models, which has another frontal boundary wrapping around through the area on Saturday, but at that point models diverge. Decided to go with blended model guidance toward the end of this period. This equated to very high POPs for Wednesday and Thursday with thunderstorm activity possible around the clock. Friday will not be a washout, but will have chances of showers and chances of diurnal thunderstorms.
Southerly flow will keep warm moist air pumping into the area from Tuesday through Thursday promoting temperatures above seasonable by about 10 degrees.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM Saturday...
River valley fog is not expected to be as pronounced early this morning as it turned out to be early Friday morning, on account of high cloudiness, a slight increase in low level flow just above the deck, and another day of drying. Have accounted for visibility as low as IFR at EKN 09-12Z, and MVFR CKB, PKB and CRW 10-12Z. Any fog that does develop early this morning lifts/dissipates by 12Z.
Otherwise, high pressure maintains mainly VFR conditions through the period, as it exits to the east. High clouds will gradually lower and thicken this afternoon and tonight, harbinger of the next low pressure system arriving from the west. Showers are likely to move into the middle Ohio Valley near or just after the end of the TAF period, 06Z Sunday, with at least in-cloud lightning also possible.
Calm to light and variable surface flow early this morning will become light south to southeast today. Light southwest flow aloft early this morning will become light south today, and then light to moderate south to southwest tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high otherwise.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy valley fog could cause briefly lower visibility restrictions at EKN/CKB/PKB/CRW near dawn this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/01/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M L M M L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, then again at times late Tuesday into Thursday. IFR also possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, late Sunday night and early Monday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 253 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
Exiting high pressure brings one more dry day, before disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the new work week, with a break on Monday, and above normal temperatures.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM Saturday...
Patchy mountain valley frost at deeper high-elevation mountain valley cold spots still appears plausible early this morning.
Elsewhere, river valley fog should not become quite as pronounced as early Friday morning, owing to the high cloud, a light puff just above the surface, and another day of drying.
Exiting high pressure will bring one more dry day today, although the process of sunshine being filtered and increasingly obscured by high cloud will be the harbinger of the next low pressure system arriving from the west. Clouds will lower and thicken tonight, with showers becoming likely at least across the middle Ohio Valley overnight.
The NAM suite and HIRES FV3 core evince a band of precipitation scooting all the way into the central Appalachians by dawn Sunday, with a break behind it in the HTS tristate and Tug Fork areas.
Elevated narrow CAPE may allow for at least in cloud lightning with a few rumbles of thunder, but of slightly greater concern are PW values of around 1.5 inches overspreading at least the middle Ohio Valley by dawn Sunday, on a 35-40 kt h85 theta-e feed from the southwest, with cloud tops possibly dropping below the ice in cloud level fostering the efficient warm rain process.
Central guidance evinces a warmer afternoon today, and then less of a ridge-valley split amid an increasingly cloudy, and, eventually, rainy night tonight.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM Saturday...
This period starts with a weak surface low passing just toward our north. This feature will drag a weak frontal boundary through which will be enough to support shower and thunderstorm activity, however looking at soundings with the lack of shear and instability, we are likely looking at sub-severe storms.
PWATs have increased along with long skinny CAPE coming into the equation which will support more rainfall and possibly heavy downpours and thankfully DCAPE is very low which will decrease the chances for downbursts.
The frontal boundary will pass by nightfall and then from there on weak high pressure both at the surface and loft will build in from the west for a short period on Monday. Unfortunately the weak high pressure will allow for some diurnal activity as far as shower and storms are concern. This will likely be confined to the mountains due to the elevated heat effect although we cannot rule out a possible storm elsewhere.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 AM Saturday...
For Tuesday, this day did a complete 180 degree switch from yesterday with going from being unsettled to fairly quiet weather with surface high pressure staying in the vicinity along with stronger ridging aloft. This equates to quieter weather for most of the day. However some activity may occur during the afternoon and evening hours and mostly confined to the mountains.
Models are in better agreement on timing with the next system to affect the area. This feature will bring a cold front associated with a parent low traversing across the Great Lakes.
This potent low will drop the frontal boundary down and slowly pass it through as the potent low becomes stronger and slides south not progressing toward the east, therefore slowly inching toward the area and not away.
Activity ahead of the aforementioned cold front will take place on Wednesday and then frontal passage will take place on Thursday if everything cooperates. Models then have the low dipping down and affecting the area with wrap around flow which will keep unsettled weather in the area for the weekend, according to models, which has another frontal boundary wrapping around through the area on Saturday, but at that point models diverge. Decided to go with blended model guidance toward the end of this period. This equated to very high POPs for Wednesday and Thursday with thunderstorm activity possible around the clock. Friday will not be a washout, but will have chances of showers and chances of diurnal thunderstorms.
Southerly flow will keep warm moist air pumping into the area from Tuesday through Thursday promoting temperatures above seasonable by about 10 degrees.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM Saturday...
River valley fog is not expected to be as pronounced early this morning as it turned out to be early Friday morning, on account of high cloudiness, a slight increase in low level flow just above the deck, and another day of drying. Have accounted for visibility as low as IFR at EKN 09-12Z, and MVFR CKB, PKB and CRW 10-12Z. Any fog that does develop early this morning lifts/dissipates by 12Z.
Otherwise, high pressure maintains mainly VFR conditions through the period, as it exits to the east. High clouds will gradually lower and thicken this afternoon and tonight, harbinger of the next low pressure system arriving from the west. Showers are likely to move into the middle Ohio Valley near or just after the end of the TAF period, 06Z Sunday, with at least in-cloud lightning also possible.
Calm to light and variable surface flow early this morning will become light south to southeast today. Light southwest flow aloft early this morning will become light south today, and then light to moderate south to southwest tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high otherwise.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy valley fog could cause briefly lower visibility restrictions at EKN/CKB/PKB/CRW near dawn this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/01/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M L M M L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, then again at times late Tuesday into Thursday. IFR also possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, late Sunday night and early Monday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHTS TRISTATE/MILTON J FERGUSON FIELD,WV | 10 sm | 52 min | E 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 45°F | 87% | 30.20 |
Charleston, WV,
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