Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayou Cane, LA
June 2, 2024 4:29 PM CDT (21:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 2:05 AM Moonset 3:10 PM |
GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 345 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early this evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening.
Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday - West winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - West winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 345 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis -
weak high pressure will ridge across the northern gulf of mexico and provide mainly light onshore flow into this evening, while scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will also linger before diminishing in coverage with Sunset. High pressure ridging across the northern gulf and a series of low pressure systems over the plains will allow for modest southerly winds during next week - .and small craft should exercise caution if boating in these conditions. Winds and seas will relax by late in the new week as high pressure again becomes the dominant feature over the western gulf.
weak high pressure will ridge across the northern gulf of mexico and provide mainly light onshore flow into this evening, while scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will also linger before diminishing in coverage with Sunset. High pressure ridging across the northern gulf and a series of low pressure systems over the plains will allow for modest southerly winds during next week - .and small craft should exercise caution if boating in these conditions. Winds and seas will relax by late in the new week as high pressure again becomes the dominant feature over the western gulf.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 022047 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
No significant change in the overall synoptic level pattern is expected through tomorrow night. The region will remain embedded within a zonal flow regime, and a series of weak shortwave troughs will slide through the Lower Mississippi Valley. The first of these troughs is currently pushing through the region, and this has provided enough forcing to support convective development along pre-existing mesoscale boundaries throughout the day. This convection is largely driven by increased instability associated with daytime heating, and is expected to dissipate through the mid to late evening hours as temperatures cool back into the 70s.
Another shortwave trough axis will slide through the area tomorrow, and this will once again provide the needed forcing to support scattered convective development as temperatures warm back into the mid 80s during the afternoon hours. PWATS will remain high at between 1.75 and 2 inches, so locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern. Overall, have went PoP values in the 40 to 60 percent chance range for tomorrow afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Tuesday will be a very typical early June day across the forecast area. Zonal flow will remain in place aloft and widely scattered convection will develop along weak mesoscale boundaries like the seabreeze and outflow boundaries from previous convection as temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorm activity will peak in the mid to late afternoon hours when SBCAPE values are highest at around 2500 to 3000 J/KG. These storms will be short-lived as updrafts become cold pool dominated and collapse in generally an hour or less, and there will be a risk of brief heavy downpours producing an inch or two rain with these thunderstorms. The strongest updrafts could reach into a drier airmass aloft, and this dry air entrainment could lead to a few storms producing locally higher wind gusts. Overall, have went with PoP that is right in line with climatology at around 30 percent for Tuesday afternoon.
A pattern change is then expected to take shape on Wednesday as a very strong northern stream trough deepens in the Great Lakes states. In advance of this trough, a shortwave ridge over Texas and western Gulf will extend more toward the forecast area, and this will help to cap off most convective potential on Wednesday.
This will be due to the stronger subsidence aloft not only drying but also warming the mid-levels enough to produce a strong mid- level temperature inversion. Any updrafts will struggle to break through this layer of warmer air, and this will limit rain chances to a few showers during the afternoon hours over more inland areas where afternoon heating is greatest. Speaking of heating, temperatures will be much warmer in the lower 90s over inland areas and the upper 80s along the coast.
By Thursday, the northern stream trough will have deepened enough to drive a frontal boundary through the forecast area. This front will tap into a moderately unstable airmass as noted by SBCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/KG to produce a convective line along the front. There could be some stronger wind gusts with the line as it moves through. This is supported by high DCAPE values of 1000 to 1200 J/KG and steep low level lapse rates. Temperatures will also be quite warm with highs climbing into the lower to even middle 90s in advance of the cold front. The front will clear the offshore waters Thursday night, and the convective threat should diminish.
The area should then find itself embedded with deep layer northerly flow on both Friday and Saturday as a strong upper level ridge dominates the Plains and the deep trough dominates the eastern seaboard. This northerly flow pattern can be tricky during the Summer months, as temperatures quickly climb into the low to mid 90s each afternoon and a collision between the seabreeze and this northerly flow ensues. This collision, depending on moisture and instability in the low to mid-levels could support isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms. A review of model sounding data indicates that Friday is the more likely of the two days for this to occur, and have included a low PoP of 20 percent in the forecast to reflect this convective risk. If storms do form, and the updrafts become sufficiently deep, the risk of damaging winds and heavy rainfall will increase substantially.
Away from the isolated convection, hot, sunny, and humid weather can be expected both Friday and Saturday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A thunderstorm is currently in the vicinity of NEW and may impact the terminal over the next hour. Given this threat, have included a TEMPO group from 18z to 19z that includes a mention of gusty winds, thunderstorms, and MVFR ceilings and visibilities. A similar threat exists at all of the other terminals through around 00z as the atmosphere remain moist and unstable, but thunderstorm probabilities are too low to include as a prevailing or TEMPO group. Instead, have included periods generally ranging from 2 to 4 hours of prevailing rain shower activity with vicinity thunderstorms between 19z and 00z at all of the terminals.
Ceilings will range from 2000 to 3000 feet over this period. If a thunderstorm is expected to directly impact a terminal, an amendment with TEMPO group will be added. After 00z, the thunderstorm activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating.
Prevailing MVFR and VFR conditions are expected from 00z through 18z tomorrow at nearly all of the terminals. Only MCB could see a brief period of IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities develop beneath a weak low level inversion between 10z and 13z tomorrow morning.
MARINE
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
No significant weather concerns are anticipated in the coastal waters through the end of the week. Winds will initially remain out of the south and southeast at around 10 knots through Wednesday and seas will remain in the 1 to 2 feet range. On Thursday, a weak front will slip through the waters, and winds will briefly turn northerly at 10 to 15 knots on Friday.
Otherwise, the only concern through the week will be the risk of locally higher winds and waves near any thunderstorms that form this week. It is safe to say that we are moving toward a very typical Summer pattern this week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 87 71 89 / 20 50 50 30 BTR 71 88 73 90 / 40 40 30 20 ASD 71 88 74 89 / 30 20 20 30 MSY 74 87 76 88 / 40 30 20 30 GPT 74 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 30 PQL 72 86 74 86 / 20 20 20 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
No significant change in the overall synoptic level pattern is expected through tomorrow night. The region will remain embedded within a zonal flow regime, and a series of weak shortwave troughs will slide through the Lower Mississippi Valley. The first of these troughs is currently pushing through the region, and this has provided enough forcing to support convective development along pre-existing mesoscale boundaries throughout the day. This convection is largely driven by increased instability associated with daytime heating, and is expected to dissipate through the mid to late evening hours as temperatures cool back into the 70s.
Another shortwave trough axis will slide through the area tomorrow, and this will once again provide the needed forcing to support scattered convective development as temperatures warm back into the mid 80s during the afternoon hours. PWATS will remain high at between 1.75 and 2 inches, so locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern. Overall, have went PoP values in the 40 to 60 percent chance range for tomorrow afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Tuesday will be a very typical early June day across the forecast area. Zonal flow will remain in place aloft and widely scattered convection will develop along weak mesoscale boundaries like the seabreeze and outflow boundaries from previous convection as temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorm activity will peak in the mid to late afternoon hours when SBCAPE values are highest at around 2500 to 3000 J/KG. These storms will be short-lived as updrafts become cold pool dominated and collapse in generally an hour or less, and there will be a risk of brief heavy downpours producing an inch or two rain with these thunderstorms. The strongest updrafts could reach into a drier airmass aloft, and this dry air entrainment could lead to a few storms producing locally higher wind gusts. Overall, have went with PoP that is right in line with climatology at around 30 percent for Tuesday afternoon.
A pattern change is then expected to take shape on Wednesday as a very strong northern stream trough deepens in the Great Lakes states. In advance of this trough, a shortwave ridge over Texas and western Gulf will extend more toward the forecast area, and this will help to cap off most convective potential on Wednesday.
This will be due to the stronger subsidence aloft not only drying but also warming the mid-levels enough to produce a strong mid- level temperature inversion. Any updrafts will struggle to break through this layer of warmer air, and this will limit rain chances to a few showers during the afternoon hours over more inland areas where afternoon heating is greatest. Speaking of heating, temperatures will be much warmer in the lower 90s over inland areas and the upper 80s along the coast.
By Thursday, the northern stream trough will have deepened enough to drive a frontal boundary through the forecast area. This front will tap into a moderately unstable airmass as noted by SBCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/KG to produce a convective line along the front. There could be some stronger wind gusts with the line as it moves through. This is supported by high DCAPE values of 1000 to 1200 J/KG and steep low level lapse rates. Temperatures will also be quite warm with highs climbing into the lower to even middle 90s in advance of the cold front. The front will clear the offshore waters Thursday night, and the convective threat should diminish.
The area should then find itself embedded with deep layer northerly flow on both Friday and Saturday as a strong upper level ridge dominates the Plains and the deep trough dominates the eastern seaboard. This northerly flow pattern can be tricky during the Summer months, as temperatures quickly climb into the low to mid 90s each afternoon and a collision between the seabreeze and this northerly flow ensues. This collision, depending on moisture and instability in the low to mid-levels could support isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms. A review of model sounding data indicates that Friday is the more likely of the two days for this to occur, and have included a low PoP of 20 percent in the forecast to reflect this convective risk. If storms do form, and the updrafts become sufficiently deep, the risk of damaging winds and heavy rainfall will increase substantially.
Away from the isolated convection, hot, sunny, and humid weather can be expected both Friday and Saturday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A thunderstorm is currently in the vicinity of NEW and may impact the terminal over the next hour. Given this threat, have included a TEMPO group from 18z to 19z that includes a mention of gusty winds, thunderstorms, and MVFR ceilings and visibilities. A similar threat exists at all of the other terminals through around 00z as the atmosphere remain moist and unstable, but thunderstorm probabilities are too low to include as a prevailing or TEMPO group. Instead, have included periods generally ranging from 2 to 4 hours of prevailing rain shower activity with vicinity thunderstorms between 19z and 00z at all of the terminals.
Ceilings will range from 2000 to 3000 feet over this period. If a thunderstorm is expected to directly impact a terminal, an amendment with TEMPO group will be added. After 00z, the thunderstorm activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating.
Prevailing MVFR and VFR conditions are expected from 00z through 18z tomorrow at nearly all of the terminals. Only MCB could see a brief period of IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities develop beneath a weak low level inversion between 10z and 13z tomorrow morning.
MARINE
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
No significant weather concerns are anticipated in the coastal waters through the end of the week. Winds will initially remain out of the south and southeast at around 10 knots through Wednesday and seas will remain in the 1 to 2 feet range. On Thursday, a weak front will slip through the waters, and winds will briefly turn northerly at 10 to 15 knots on Friday.
Otherwise, the only concern through the week will be the risk of locally higher winds and waves near any thunderstorms that form this week. It is safe to say that we are moving toward a very typical Summer pattern this week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 87 71 89 / 20 50 50 30 BTR 71 88 73 90 / 40 40 30 20 ASD 71 88 74 89 / 30 20 20 30 MSY 74 87 76 88 / 40 30 20 30 GPT 74 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 30 PQL 72 86 74 86 / 20 20 20 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 22 mi | 60 min | 81°F | 76°F | 29.98 | |||
| TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA | 26 mi | 60 min | E 5.1G | 80°F | 79°F | 29.99 | ||
| AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA | 32 mi | 60 min | ESE 2.9G | 81°F | 29.98 | |||
| EINL1 | 37 mi | 60 min | SSE 7G | 81°F | 79°F | 29.97 | 76°F | |
| CARL1 | 40 mi | 60 min | 79°F | |||||
| NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA | 45 mi | 60 min | SW 5.1G | 83°F | 84°F | 29.98 | ||
| GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA | 48 mi | 60 min | ESE 5.1G | 82°F | 83°F | 29.99 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHUM HOUMATERREBONNE,LA | 6 sm | 34 min | S 06 | 7 sm | Partly Cloudy | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.96 |
Cocodrie
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:04 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM CDT 0.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:58 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 07:58 PM CDT 0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:04 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM CDT 0.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:58 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 07:58 PM CDT 0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Shell Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:07 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 03:18 AM CDT 1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:05 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM CDT 1.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:29 PM CDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:18 PM CDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:07 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 03:18 AM CDT 1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:05 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM CDT 1.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:29 PM CDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:18 PM CDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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