Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 4:19 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1001 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1001 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure remains centered off the mid atlantic coast through Thursday before slowly weakening and drifting east. A surface trough lingers over the area for the end of the week through the first half of the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 171743 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 143 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast through Thursday before slowly weakening and drifting east. A surface trough lingers over the area for the end of the week through the first half of the weekend. A low pressure system approaches on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
The forecast remains on track for the afternoon. Only minor adjustments for hourly temperatures and dewpoints were made with this update.

High pressure offshore is continuing to provide dry conditions under a mostly clear sky. Temperatures will be warmer than the past couple of days as an upper level ridge builds over the East Coast. A mainly southerly component to the wind will allow an increase in dew points as well today. Highs will be in the 80s with some locations for the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ approaching 90. Eastern locations may only rise into the upper 70s.

Continued moisture advection into the area will prevent low temperatures from dropping too much, despite mostly clear skies expected. Lows will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s near the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The strong ridge continues to strengthen over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for the beginning of a heat wave in much of the area. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to middle 90s for much of NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of interior southern CT. This heat combined with dew points in the upper 60s will allow for heat index values in the 95-100 degree range for the western half of the area. After collaboration with the surround offices and anticipation of the extended heat through the week, opted to include Northern Fairfield and Northern New Haven counties in Southern Connecticut to the existing heat advisory for Tuesday.

Heat advisories will likely need to be expanded to other counties in interior southern Connecticut and perhaps closer to the coast. A southerly flow is providing a sheltering effect from the heat for the NYC metro, Long Island, and the immediate Connecticut coastline so details on the exact extent of the heat in these locations is a bit more uncertain. It's important to note however that although these locations may not result in heat index values high enough to warrant an advisory, highs in the middle to upper 80s and with heat index values near 90 will still necessitate caution when exposed to the heat.

Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be only in the upper 60s to low 70s for much of the area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
**Key Points**

* The heat wave is expected to continue in the long term period, peaking Thursday and Friday and continuing through at least Saturday.

* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to potentially around 105 during this time.

* Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the 60s.

The upper level ridge continues to slowly flatten on Thursday in response to an upper level trough moving through northern Canada.
Latest guidance continues to show highly anomalous 500mb heights around 598dam to 599dam. To give an idea of how anomalous this is, the highest 500mb height the OKX sounding has ever recorded is 598dam per the SPC Sounding Climatology Page and the highest ever recorded in June is 597dam. At the surface, high pressure centered offshore to our southeast will slowly weaken and drift east Thursday as a surface trough lingers over the area. This pattern will continue the heat and humidity across the area. The heat wave will likely peak Thursday and Friday and could continue until at least Saturday. Current Advisories will likely be expanded to include more counties and extended in time. Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings can not be completely ruled out either at this time. There is potential for a few climate sites to near or break high temperatures records on Thursday and Friday. Also, with overnight temperatures remaining elevated a few locations may set record high minimum temperatures Thursday, and possibly Saturday.

With the intense heat and high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

With the upper level ridge flattening for the end of the week and weekend, some weak disturbances track near or just north of the area. A low pressure system then looks to approach the area on Sunday. Slight chance to chance of showers/thunderstorms starts Friday and continues through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Offshore high pressure remains in control through the TAF period.

VFR.

Southerly flow today, speeds 10 to 15 kt, gusts 20 to 25 kt into early evening. Gusts subside in the evening, and speeds fall below 10 kt tonight, before increasing back toward 10 kt on Tuesday. Gusts up to 20 kt develop by late day.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end timing of gusts could be a few hours off from the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday PM: VFR. S wind gusts up to 20 kt.

Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening Wednesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure largely in control, sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to prevail through at least the first half of the weekend. There may however be occasional gusts up to around 25kt until early this evening on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches continues through Tuesday with a southerly flow, and southeast to south swells.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005-006.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

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Bay Shore
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Mon -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
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Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
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Mon -- 12:27 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.74 feet High Tide
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