Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 1:15 PM   Moonset 1:13 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 359 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W late this evening, then becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms this evening. Showers. Chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning. Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 359 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 141941 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 341 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Cold front will be pushing through the forecast area into this evening, shifting east of us overnight. The front will initially have SBCAPES of up to around 1500 J/kg in some areas to work with, with residual 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE potential overnight when the mid-level shortwave and upper jet streak dynamics pass through. This support aloft will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms ongoing into the late night hours.

Severe thunderstorms remain possible into this evening with the threat of high wind gusts with 30-40kt 0-6km bulk shear as well as inverted-v low level profiles and DCAPES perhaps approaching 700 J/kg. Large hail will remain a threat as well with -10 to -30C potentially up to around 500 J/kg. A slightly backed profile aloft will however mitigate the hail threat somewhat.

Tall/skinny CAPE will be present with PWATs expected to to climb up to around 1.6 inches promote a flooding threat, but the fairly progressive motion of storm cells should offset this a bit. But looking at recent rainfall rates and the orientation of an area of rain over central PA, there is some concern for a flash flooding threat towards sundown for typically more susceptible areas of NE NJ and maybe even NYC as well. See the hydrology section for more details.

Rain threat should be done by daybreak, with low temperatures mostly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure builds in for the weekend with dry and less muggy conditions as dewpoints fall to around 50. Both days look to feature mostly sunny conditions, with some cumulus development on Saturday and perhaps some cirrus streaming by on Sunday. Highs mostly around 80 on Saturday, with slightly cooler conditions on Sunday for coastal areas as winds shift onshore.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The key point for the long term is that there is increasing confidence in a prolonged heat wave in the middle to late next week with heat indices approaching or exceeding 100F at times Tuesday through Friday.

Ongoing deep-layered ridging on Monday continues into at least Wednesday. Models show slight flattening of the ridge aloft with maybe a weak surface trough setting up for both Thursday and Friday.
Will continue to advertise dry weather through at least Thursday given the subsidence/capping working against whatever CAPE may manage to build up to. Slight chance/chance PoPs for Friday as per NBM. Still too early to have any confidence in any over-the-ridge convection spilling over into the forecast area for any of the days in the long term.

Based on global deterministic and ensemble guidance, best guess for 850mb temps for Monday are 16-17C, approaching 20C on Tuesday, then 20-21C Wednesday through Friday. After high temperatures of mostly 85-90 on Monday, highs mostly in the middle and upper 90s are expected away from the coast Tuesday through Friday. Although it's too soon to have high confidence in detailed heat indices during this period, at least advisory criteria would likely be met for a good portion of the forecast area starting on Tuesday given the current forecast. So far, models aren't indicating a very dry boundary layer each afternoon or west to NW surface winds, so these two factors would limit daytime mixing out of surface dewpoints.

Given the potential duration of the heat, it'll be important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A pre frontal trough was moving into the lower Hudson Valley and into northeastern New Jersey at 17Z with showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible. A cold front will follow late this afternoon through late tonight.

VFR expected outside of any showers and thunderstorms when MVFR conditions are expected, with brief IFR possible in stronger thunderstorms. Timing of the thunderstorms continues to trend slightly later, with thunderstorms in the NYC metro area 21Z to 01Z, and to the east 23Z to 03Z. Stronger storms, with gusty winds and small hail possible, will be more likely across the lower Hudson Valley into northeastern New Jersey, and the NYC terminals. A few showers will remain possible in the vicinity of, and post frontal into late tonight.

S to SW winds ahead of the cold front may briefly become light and variable in the vicinity of the pre frontal trough. Post cold front winds shift to NW to N and become gusty. Overnight gusts may be more occasional.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Showers were moving across the terminals, with an isolated thunderstorm possible, through 20Z.

More organized thunderstorms will become likely late afternoon into this evening 22Z to 01Z. Timing has trended slightly later, and that trend may continue. A stronger storm remains possible with gusts up to 40kt and small hail possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A southerly flow will occasionally gust up to 25kt this afternoon on the ocean waters, otherwise, sub-advisory conditions outside of any thunderstorms, which may be strong to severe.

For the weekend through Monday, sub-advisory conditions prevail.
There may be a chance of a few S-SW gusts to 25kt and seas approaching 5 ft each afternoon/early evening for Mon-Wed on the ocean west of Fire Island inlet. SCAs probably won't be needed for each day.

HYDROLOGY
The entire area remains in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
Expecting mostly minor urban poor drainage flooding, but localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly for parts of NE NJ and possibly NYC a well. Although rain will be heavy at times, the progressive nature of the thunderstorms is expected to keep flooding more minor in nature, however the orientation of the rainfall may promote the chance of flash flooding.
Average storm total rainfall amounts will be between half an inch and 1.50 inches, with pockets of 2-plus inches possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high risk for rip current development along Atlantic facing beaches today with southerly flow 15 to 20 kt along the shoreline and surf up to 4 ft expected.

Conditions begin to improve by Saturday, with a moderate risk forecast as winds shift offshore.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sayville (Brown Creek)
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Fri -- 01:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:51 AM EDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:32 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Patchogue
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Fri -- 01:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:35 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Patchogue, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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