Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:00 AM   Moonset 3:10 PM

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FXUS64 KJAN 022026 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 326 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Tonight and Monday: A brief quiet period is expected tonight as a shortwave disturbance pushes away from the area. Lingering showers are expected to end into the evening. Patchy fog will be possible overnight and into early Monday morning but dense fog is not expected. Overnight temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The active weather period will pick back up on Monday as shower/thunderstorm chances return across the CWA Another shortwave disturbance from central TX is expected to push eastward towards our area. As the shortwave approaches, model guidance is suggesting that a MCV will approach the ArkLaMiss area in the afternoon and evening hours and help to initiate storms. With dewpoints in the 70s, decent instability, and lapse rates, some storms could be strong to severe. A "Marginal" risk for severe weather was expanded to include areas west of I-55. High temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees are expected.
/SW/

Monday night through Saturday night: An active weather pattern will continue through most of the upcoming week with perturbed westerlies having the greatest influence on our forecast. As has been the case recently, mid level flow will be more than sufficient for organized convective systems, and moisture/instability will occasionally support damaging wind and heavy rainfall threats.

The biggest challenge will be forecasting the timing of any systems, and it continues to look like the mid to late week time frame will be the primary focus for a more significant convective system to impact the area. With the upper level pattern becoming more northwesterly and cyclonic, a cold front is expected to approach the area Wednesday as a stronger perturbation crosses the forecast area. Cold air aloft combined with a hot and humid boundary layer will provide a favorable environment for strong to severe convective wind during peak heating, so we'll be monitoring for potential convective systems and ramp up the messaging as confidence increases. It seems late Wed/Thu/early Fri are when the global models show the strongest convective signals.

Thereafter, guidance is bouncing around a good bit between different solutions with some showing drier while others keep it more warm and humid, and perhaps active in terms of convection into the weekend. /EC/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected at most TAF sits except for HEZ which is currently under MVFR flight conditions due to scattered cloud cover and lingering showers. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for southern and eastern TAF sites and rain chances are expected to diminish late afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible early Monday morning, resulting in possible MVFR flight conditions due to lower visibility. Expect VFR flight conditions to return after sunrise. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 69 88 71 90 / 0 30 30 30 Meridian 68 89 70 90 / 10 30 20 40 Vicksburg 70 89 73 90 / 0 30 40 20 Hattiesburg 70 90 72 91 / 10 50 40 30 Natchez 69 88 71 90 / 0 50 40 20 Greenville 72 89 74 90 / 0 30 40 20 Greenwood 70 90 73 90 / 0 20 30 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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