Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 4:07 AM   Moonset 6:29 PM

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FXUS64 KJAN 041138 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 638 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Through tonight: A few areas of light to moderate rain comprise the remaining vestiges of two MCSs that moved into the area yesterday evening. Both of these systems have long since weakened, but not before producing wind damage in several areas. Also of note, a wake low developed across parts of AR and north MS behind the first MCS and has resulted in southerly winds that have been gusty at times overnight.

Looking ahead to today, we're in for another complicated and low confidence forecast heavily driven by mesoscale details.
Considerable cloud debris and perhaps some shower activity will likely persist well into this morning. After the convective overturning that took place overnight, there will likely need to be some window of recovery during the day before the atmosphere will again be primed for more widespread convection. The 00z guidance suite zeroed in on the convective complex currently moving into the Red River Valley of OK as the next system to bring thunderstorms into our area from midday through the afternoon.
However, some later runs of the HRRR backed off on this solution somewhat, weakening the storms as they move eastward, perhaps hinting at a scenario in which the airmass has not had sufficient time to recover. And so, these two solutions appear to represent our best and worst case scenarios for today. If this MCS is able to maintain progress into our area or weaken then become reinvigorated later today into this evening, it will have the potential to carry similar threats to last night's storms with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern. For this we are highlighting SPC's day one marginal to slight risk across our region. If this is the scenario that prevails, localized flooding can't be ruled out particularly in areas that have seen similar activity in recent days. But there is also the potential failure mode, in which the atmosphere doesn't sufficiently recover and overall precip coverage is limited. We'll watch closely how this plays out through the morning and provide more updates along the way. /DL/

Tuesday through early to mid next week...

High pressure over the southeastern CONUS will keep a steady stream of moisture into the area, supportive of daily rain and storm chances for much of the extended period. A warm moist boundary layer beneath perturbed midlevel flow will result in a period of enhanced activity through the remainder of the week.
With PWAT generally in excess of 1.7 inches, several rounds of storms will be possible. Flow in the 20-30 kt range will aid in the organization of these storms, with greatest confidence in the extended period for a system Wednesday. A shortwave will help drive the complex and aid in moisture recovery. Flow is ample for organization and DCAPE around 1000 j/kg range will support downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of these systems as a lot depends on mesoscale features. Given the conditional nature and overall low confidence, expect adjustments in the forecast as more data becomes available.

Storm chances will likely continue into Thursday/Friday as a cold front pushes south. several more complexes appear possible where the environment remains favorable, mainly the southwest. There is a chance that the front stalls out and should this happen, given the lingering moisture reservoir, this may serve as a focus for storms, however this is only speculation at this time. Storms will continue to be possible south of the front where moisture remains abundant, but overall confidence in their organization and evolution remains low. In the wake of the cold front Saturday, drier air will shift focus further south, thus limiting the chance for storms. Moisture recovery will be possible Sunday as high pressure shifts east and a shortwave pushes across the midsouth, bringing a return of rain and storm chances. PoPs remain low at this time. Early to mid next week gets a bit interesting, as a seasonally anomalous trough digs south across the eastern CONUS.
This will likely favor below normal temperatures. Persistent northerlies and high pressure will favor drier conditions and perhaps a more spring-like feel./SAS/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A patchy IFR stratus ceiling is impacting portions of north MS.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail across the region this morning.
Another round of TS is expected this afternoon, with 50 kt wind gusts and 1 inch hail possible. Brief categorical reductions will be possible in storms. Late tonight into early Wed morning, low stratus ceilings will be possible again and patchy fog cannot be ruled out. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 89 72 89 71 / 60 20 50 40 Meridian 89 70 91 70 / 60 30 40 60 Vicksburg 89 72 88 71 / 60 10 50 40 Hattiesburg 89 72 92 73 / 50 30 30 40 Natchez 89 72 89 71 / 60 10 40 30 Greenville 88 72 86 72 / 60 20 60 30 Greenwood 89 72 86 71 / 60 30 60 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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