NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Warm and muggy to start, with another hot and humid day ahead.
Spotty patchy fog and mist early this morning along some of the coast dissipates by mid morning.

Guidance consensus progs H85 temps 21 or 22C today, yielding surface temperatures into the 90s once again for most areas with sufficient mixing of the BL. Some of the warmest locales in urban NE NJ may touch triple digits. Increasing SW flow should allow dew pts to fall from the low to mid 70s this morning back into the upper 60s this afternoon. With these values, heat indices approach or exceed 100F across much of the region once again this afternoon. Heat Advisory remains in place today for all but SE Suffolk and coastal New London.

Then into this afternoon, yet another mid level shortwave in the flow approaches, and CAMs depict clusters of convection developing along with it into the evening given a modestly unstable air mass.
Forecast soundings peg DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg over the LoHud Valley, and with effective shear toward 30 kt, should be sufficient to support organized cells and line segment development capable of producing strong wind gusts. Any potential convective debris clouds would probably occur late enough in the day to limit the impact on potential high temperatures or heat indices.
Timing looks late afternoon for far western parts of the region, working into NYC and metro by early evening, and points east into the evening as activity likely weakens with loss of heating.
SPC has expanded their slight risk to include much of the region, with the exception of eastern Long Island and SE CT, where a marginal is in place. And with a moist environment to work with, torrential downpours are possible with any thunderstorm and lead to flooding, primarily of urban and poor drainage areas.

Conditions dry tonight and another very warm and humid night expected, with lows again near 80 in NYC and in the mid/upper 70s most elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
One more afternoon of dangerous heat and humidity across much of the region Wednesday before a respite. Digging trough will push a cold front toward the region, instigating convection once again in the afternoon and evening. Ahead of it, temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s, and heat indices likely top out between 95 and 100. Extended the Heat Advisory thru Wednesday for all areas but SE Suffolk and coastal New London with increased confidence in coverage of these values.

Showers and thunderstorms become likely by late afternoon for western areas, spreading east and persisting thru the evening, before the fropa is expected to move through overnight into early Thursday morning. SPC has outlined a slight risk for the LoHud Valley, NE NJ, NYC, and western LI, with a marginal farther east. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard, though torrential downpours with this activity could lead to flooding. The 00Z HRRR highlighted a low (10%), but non zero, chance of some areas recording 3 inches in 3 hr, which can be a good signal for a heavy rainfall potential. More likely though, is a lower end nuisance type flooding. The showers and storms likely linger overnight, gradually ending from west to east working into Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The main story for the long term will be relief from the high heat and humidity that currently persists over the region.

Key Points:

* A cold front will continue working offshore on Thursday. A few showers, possibly a thunderstorm may linger nearby in the morning with dry conditions becoming likely in the afternoon and evening.

* Daytime temperatures will return to near seasonable levels Thursday and Friday with dew points falling into the lower and middle 60s, potentially upper 50s in spots.

* A slight moderating temperature trend is possible for the upcoming weekend, but highs will still be in the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the 60s.

* Mainly dry conditions should persist into the upcoming weekend.

Upper level trough will continue over the region on Thursday with the cold front pushing offshore. The deep moisture axis and main area of forcing follows, but there could be some lingering showers in the morning, especially closer to the coast. A thunderstorm is possible, but instability will be diminishing as the front pushes further offshore. Model trends continue supporting the end of any showers Thursday afternoon and have trended PoPs lower than the latest deterministic NBM.

The upper trough axis will likely swing across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Broad troughing will then persist aloft into the start of the weekend, with a more amplified trough passage late in the weekend. The main uncertainty will be how much moisture will be able to return to the region. Forcing continues to look weak, but there is a signal for a weak surface trough or front nearby which could be a mechanism for convection. The deepest moisture and more organized forcing stays largely north. Will continue to keep the forecast dry through the weekend/next Monday, which is in line with the latest model consensus.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A surface trough will remain nearby into tonight.

VFR through at least early afternoon with SW winds 5-10kt backing more southerly for the afternoon and increasing 10 to around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Winds and gusts, especially along the coast will be a few knots higher during the afternoon.
Changed the PROB30s to TEMPOs for TSRA, and adjusted the timing an hour later. There is a chance that any late afternoon storms will have stronger westerly gusts, and added to the inland terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of convection may be off by a couple of hours. Iso shra/tstm possible for an hour or two on either side of TEMPO timing.

Chance that winds back about 20 degrees more than currently forecast this afternoon ahead of the potential convection.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR to start. MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms afternoon into the evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late at night.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the morning.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A period of marginal SCA conditions is possible on local ocean waters late this afternoon with occasional 25 kt gusts from the south and seas building to 4 or 5 ft.

Advisory conditions become more likely on the ocean waters late Wednesday afternoon as seas build to between 5 and 7 ft ahead of an approaching cold front. These elevated seas may linger into Thursday afternoon before subsiding.

Thereafter, sub SCA conditions expected on all waters through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
With a humid air mass in place, any thunderstorms that develop through Wed night will have the potential to produce downpours capable of causing at least minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate rip current risk on the ocean beaches into this evening due to 3-4 ft S swell of 6-8s and S winds 10-15 kt. Seas increase on Wednesday to near 5 ft, and with a 15 kt flow, supports a high rip current risk along local Atlantic beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>011.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011.
NY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078>080- 176>179.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176-178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.