Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gloucester Courthouse, VA
June 2, 2024 10:17 AM EDT (14:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:02 AM Moonset 3:19 PM |
ANZ636 York River- 1005 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Mon night - SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. Showers and tstms likely in the evening.
Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1005 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
on and off showers and Thunderstorms are expected through at least midweek, with the best chances for storms over the marine area being Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Expecting benign marine conditions outside of any Thunderstorms.
on and off showers and Thunderstorms are expected through at least midweek, with the best chances for storms over the marine area being Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Expecting benign marine conditions outside of any Thunderstorms.
FXUS61 KAKQ 021040 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough will bring the chance for a few showers late this afternoon into tonight. Afterwards, a weak surface low will allow for scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon. Unsettled weather continues through midweek with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Cloudy weather lingers through the day.
- A few light showers are possible late this afternoon into tonight.
Current wx analysis depicts sfc high pressure centered just offshore with an upper level ridge axis in place across the east coast. Temps as of 630 AM were generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trough moves towards the area today with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s and highs in the low-mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies today. Although the trough moves over the area this afternoon into this evening, it weakens as it does so. As such, forcing for showers appears rather limited amidst meager CAPE values around 100-250 J/kg (per HRRR). Therefore, expect most of the day to remain dry with a few light showers possible mainly late this afternoon into tonight (PoPs ~30% except ~40% across the MD Eastern Shore overnight). Any QPF would be light with only a few hundredths of an inch of rain probable. Cannot completely rule out a brief, very light shower/drizzle across central VA later this morning into early this afternoon, but confidence in precip reaching the ground (given dry air in the mid levels) is too low to add mentionable PoPs. Lows tonight will be mild in the 60s (low- mid 60s W and upper 60s to near 70F E).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Storm chances are increasing for Monday afternoon.
- A few isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon.
Instability increases on Mon as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s. A surface low forms over central VA Mon afternoon, allowing for enough surface convergence for scattered storms in the afternoon. CAMs have trended higher in coverage for storms Mon afternoon. As such, confidence has increased enough to add likely PoPs for areas generally along and E of I-95 and along I-64 in central to SE VA (the surface low looks to track near/along the I-64 corridor). RIC is on the edge and may be increased to likely PoPs in future updates. Forecast soundings show modest deep layer shear around 20- 25 kt amidst 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, allowing for slow storm motions with RM motions of 10-15 mph. As such, expect a classic summertime day with scattered afternoon pop-up thunderstorms across the area.
Given slow (nearly stationary) storm motions, heavy rain is possible with any storms as well as strong winds from wet downdrafts. While SPC and WPC don't currently have a severe or flash flooding risk, cannot rule out a few locally strong wind gusts and/or localized ponding of water on roadways. Any showers/storms taper off Mon evening.
High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to push inland. A few isolated showers/storms are possible mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with lower dews. As such, expect the shower/storm potential to shift W through the afternoon into the evening. Highs Tue aren't expected to change much from Mon (mid 80s) apart from the Eastern Shore which may only reach mid 70s E to around 80F W. Lows in the 60s are expected both nights.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather continues midweek with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday.
- Seasonally warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s each day.
Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek before a cutoff low moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New England from mid to late week. As the upper level low approaches, a series of shortwaves move through, providing chances for scattered showers and storms (mainly Wed and Thu). Both Wed and Thu have PoPs of 40-55% with scattered afternoon storms possible both days. Wed features a prefrontal trough and Thu features a cold front approaching from the W as well as the aforementioned exiting prefrontal trough. Models have trended faster with the convection on Thu with the best chance for afternoon storms across E portions of the FA (associated with the prefrontal trough). The cold front itself now looks to hold off until Thu night/early Fri with additional convection from the front uncertain given current timing. Depending on where the front ends up by Fri afternoon, additional storms are possible across SE VA/NE NC. Lower PoPs exist Sat and Sun given the upper level low potentially too close to the local area for sufficient forcing/instability. Otherwise, seasonally warm all week with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s each day and lows mainly in the 60s.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...
VFR conditions continue through the 12z taf period. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through most of the day with a low chance for showers (which aren't expected to cause flight restrictions) late this afternoon into tonight (~30% PoPs at RIC/PHF/ORF, 40% at SBY, and 20% at ECG). Cannot rule out a very light shower/drizzle late this morning into this afternoon across central VA, but confidence is too low to mention in the taf. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies (due to cirrus) continue through tonight with a potential brief improvement to SCT at PHF/ORF/ECG later this morning. CIGs lower to ~5000-6000 ft tonight with MVFR/IFR CIGs possible across NW portions of the FA (likely just NW of RIC/SBY). Additionally, some model guidance shows MVFR CIGs reaching RIC/SBY Mon morning into early Mon afternoon. Winds become SW 5-10 kt today (closer to 10 kt by this afternoon) before becoming light and variable tonight.
Chances for scattered showers and storms are increasing Mon afternoon into Mon evening with VIS restrictions possible. Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont. Otherwise, unsettled weather returns on Wed/Thu with additional chances for showers/storms.
MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
-An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the region to start the new week.
High pressure continues to shift offshore early this morning. As a result, south/southwesterly winds have picked up in speed slightly to 14-17kt with gusts up to 20kt. Based on trends and hi-res guidance, this will persist until mid-morning before subsiding.
Still expecting conditions to remain below SCA thresholds across the area, though can't rule out a few spots briefly bumping to 18-20kt sustained. Otherwise, winds will be southwesterly during the day before becoming more southerly in the late evening/overnight. As the shortwave passes through during this timeframe, there could be another brief, spotty uptick in wind speeds to 15-20kt, especially across the coastal waters. Again, sub-SCA conditions are expected.
Additionally, rain chances will push in from the west this afternoon with scattered showers and storms being possible as the shortwave slowly crosses the region. It appears that Monday will have a slightly better chance of showers and storms as the shortwave lingers before pushing offshore. These storms will be capable of producing strong, erratic wind gusts over the local waters. Moisture will remain in place through at least mid-week as a warm front gradually lifts northward, so rain and storm chances remain in the forecast each day.
With generally benign marine conditions outside of any thunderstorms, seas are expected to remain at 2-3ft through mid- week. Waves in the Bay will fluctuate between 1 and 2 ft.
A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches today and Monday. The flow looks to become onshore by Tuesday, which could potentially create some nuisance coastal flooding in spots. We will continue to monitor these trends.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough will bring the chance for a few showers late this afternoon into tonight. Afterwards, a weak surface low will allow for scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon. Unsettled weather continues through midweek with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Cloudy weather lingers through the day.
- A few light showers are possible late this afternoon into tonight.
Current wx analysis depicts sfc high pressure centered just offshore with an upper level ridge axis in place across the east coast. Temps as of 630 AM were generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trough moves towards the area today with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s and highs in the low-mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies today. Although the trough moves over the area this afternoon into this evening, it weakens as it does so. As such, forcing for showers appears rather limited amidst meager CAPE values around 100-250 J/kg (per HRRR). Therefore, expect most of the day to remain dry with a few light showers possible mainly late this afternoon into tonight (PoPs ~30% except ~40% across the MD Eastern Shore overnight). Any QPF would be light with only a few hundredths of an inch of rain probable. Cannot completely rule out a brief, very light shower/drizzle across central VA later this morning into early this afternoon, but confidence in precip reaching the ground (given dry air in the mid levels) is too low to add mentionable PoPs. Lows tonight will be mild in the 60s (low- mid 60s W and upper 60s to near 70F E).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Storm chances are increasing for Monday afternoon.
- A few isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon.
Instability increases on Mon as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s. A surface low forms over central VA Mon afternoon, allowing for enough surface convergence for scattered storms in the afternoon. CAMs have trended higher in coverage for storms Mon afternoon. As such, confidence has increased enough to add likely PoPs for areas generally along and E of I-95 and along I-64 in central to SE VA (the surface low looks to track near/along the I-64 corridor). RIC is on the edge and may be increased to likely PoPs in future updates. Forecast soundings show modest deep layer shear around 20- 25 kt amidst 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, allowing for slow storm motions with RM motions of 10-15 mph. As such, expect a classic summertime day with scattered afternoon pop-up thunderstorms across the area.
Given slow (nearly stationary) storm motions, heavy rain is possible with any storms as well as strong winds from wet downdrafts. While SPC and WPC don't currently have a severe or flash flooding risk, cannot rule out a few locally strong wind gusts and/or localized ponding of water on roadways. Any showers/storms taper off Mon evening.
High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to push inland. A few isolated showers/storms are possible mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with lower dews. As such, expect the shower/storm potential to shift W through the afternoon into the evening. Highs Tue aren't expected to change much from Mon (mid 80s) apart from the Eastern Shore which may only reach mid 70s E to around 80F W. Lows in the 60s are expected both nights.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather continues midweek with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday.
- Seasonally warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s each day.
Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek before a cutoff low moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New England from mid to late week. As the upper level low approaches, a series of shortwaves move through, providing chances for scattered showers and storms (mainly Wed and Thu). Both Wed and Thu have PoPs of 40-55% with scattered afternoon storms possible both days. Wed features a prefrontal trough and Thu features a cold front approaching from the W as well as the aforementioned exiting prefrontal trough. Models have trended faster with the convection on Thu with the best chance for afternoon storms across E portions of the FA (associated with the prefrontal trough). The cold front itself now looks to hold off until Thu night/early Fri with additional convection from the front uncertain given current timing. Depending on where the front ends up by Fri afternoon, additional storms are possible across SE VA/NE NC. Lower PoPs exist Sat and Sun given the upper level low potentially too close to the local area for sufficient forcing/instability. Otherwise, seasonally warm all week with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s each day and lows mainly in the 60s.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...
VFR conditions continue through the 12z taf period. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through most of the day with a low chance for showers (which aren't expected to cause flight restrictions) late this afternoon into tonight (~30% PoPs at RIC/PHF/ORF, 40% at SBY, and 20% at ECG). Cannot rule out a very light shower/drizzle late this morning into this afternoon across central VA, but confidence is too low to mention in the taf. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies (due to cirrus) continue through tonight with a potential brief improvement to SCT at PHF/ORF/ECG later this morning. CIGs lower to ~5000-6000 ft tonight with MVFR/IFR CIGs possible across NW portions of the FA (likely just NW of RIC/SBY). Additionally, some model guidance shows MVFR CIGs reaching RIC/SBY Mon morning into early Mon afternoon. Winds become SW 5-10 kt today (closer to 10 kt by this afternoon) before becoming light and variable tonight.
Chances for scattered showers and storms are increasing Mon afternoon into Mon evening with VIS restrictions possible. Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont. Otherwise, unsettled weather returns on Wed/Thu with additional chances for showers/storms.
MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
-An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the region to start the new week.
High pressure continues to shift offshore early this morning. As a result, south/southwesterly winds have picked up in speed slightly to 14-17kt with gusts up to 20kt. Based on trends and hi-res guidance, this will persist until mid-morning before subsiding.
Still expecting conditions to remain below SCA thresholds across the area, though can't rule out a few spots briefly bumping to 18-20kt sustained. Otherwise, winds will be southwesterly during the day before becoming more southerly in the late evening/overnight. As the shortwave passes through during this timeframe, there could be another brief, spotty uptick in wind speeds to 15-20kt, especially across the coastal waters. Again, sub-SCA conditions are expected.
Additionally, rain chances will push in from the west this afternoon with scattered showers and storms being possible as the shortwave slowly crosses the region. It appears that Monday will have a slightly better chance of showers and storms as the shortwave lingers before pushing offshore. These storms will be capable of producing strong, erratic wind gusts over the local waters. Moisture will remain in place through at least mid-week as a warm front gradually lifts northward, so rain and storm chances remain in the forecast each day.
With generally benign marine conditions outside of any thunderstorms, seas are expected to remain at 2-3ft through mid- week. Waves in the Bay will fluctuate between 1 and 2 ft.
A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches today and Monday. The flow looks to become onshore by Tuesday, which could potentially create some nuisance coastal flooding in spots. We will continue to monitor these trends.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA | 14 sm | 22 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.14 | |
| KFAF FELKER AAF,VA | 15 sm | 22 min | W 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 81°F | 66°F | 62% | 30.12 | |
| KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA | 17 sm | 23 min | SW 14G18 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 61°F | 65% | 30.15 | |
| KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA | 24 sm | 22 min | WSW 10 | 9 sm | Partly Cloudy | 75°F | 59°F | 57% | 30.14 |
Clay Bank
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT 2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:30 PM EDT 3.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT 2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:30 PM EDT 3.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Clay Bank, York River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 2.7 |
| 8 am |
| 2.5 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
Mumfort Islands
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:21 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:25 AM EDT 2.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:24 PM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT 2.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:21 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:25 AM EDT 2.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:24 PM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT 2.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mumfort Islands, York River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.4 |
| 7 am |
| 2.3 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Wakefield, VA,
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