Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Surfside Beach, TX
June 18, 2024 11:43 AM CDT (16:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 4:28 PM Moonset 2:29 AM |
GMZ355 Expires:202406190415;;238328 Fzus54 Khgx 181508 Cwfhgx
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service houston/galveston tx 1008 am cdt Tue jun 18 2024
upper texas coastal waters from high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nautical miles including galveston and matagorda bays.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz350-355-190415- coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm-coastal waters from high island to freeport tx out 20 nm- 1008 am cdt Tue jun 18 2024
.tropical storm warning in effect - .
Rest of today - East winds around 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet, occasionally to 14 feet. Wave detail: southeast 11 feet at 9 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers late this morning, then showers likely this afternoon.
Tonight - East winds 25 to 35 knots. Gusts to 50 knots after midnight. Seas 9 to 13 feet, occasionally to 17 feet. Wave detail: southeast 12 feet at 10 seconds. Showers. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.
Wednesday - East winds 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. Seas 9 to 13 feet, occasionally to 17 feet. Wave detail: southeast 12 feet at 10 seconds. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.
Wednesday night - East winds 25 to 35 knots. Gusts to 50 knots in the evening. Seas 9 to 13 feet, occasionally to 17 feet. Wave detail: southeast 12 feet at 10 seconds. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday - East winds around 30 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet, occasionally to 14 feet. Wave detail: southeast 10 feet at 9 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until late afternoon, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Thursday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots, easing to around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon.
Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service houston/galveston tx 1008 am cdt Tue jun 18 2024
upper texas coastal waters from high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nautical miles including galveston and matagorda bays.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz350-355-190415- coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm-coastal waters from high island to freeport tx out 20 nm- 1008 am cdt Tue jun 18 2024
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1008 Am Cdt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern gulf of mexico is expected to become a tropical storm as it tracks towards mexico. Highs winds, hazardous seas, and above normal coastal water levels are likely well north of the center of the storm. With the exception of galveston bay, a tropical storm warning is in effect over our coastal waters. Small craft advisory remains in effect for galveston bay, but some gusts above 35 knots are possible at times. Water levels will be rising and would anticipate some coastal flooding in the bays and along the beaches. Higher winds are possible in Thunderstorms. Small craft should consider remaining in port until weather conditions start improving later this week.
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern gulf of mexico is expected to become a tropical storm as it tracks towards mexico. Highs winds, hazardous seas, and above normal coastal water levels are likely well north of the center of the storm. With the exception of galveston bay, a tropical storm warning is in effect over our coastal waters. Small craft advisory remains in effect for galveston bay, but some gusts above 35 knots are possible at times. Water levels will be rising and would anticipate some coastal flooding in the bays and along the beaches. Higher winds are possible in Thunderstorms. Small craft should consider remaining in port until weather conditions start improving later this week.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 181123 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 623 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 424 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring a variety of hazards to our area over the next few days. Below is a list of primary concerns.
1) Heavy Rainfall
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are likely this evening through Wednesday, especially over our southern and coastal counties. The best chance of heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding will be from I-10 points south to the coast. If you encounter water covered roads while driving, please turn your car around. Have multiple ways to receive weather updates and warnings.
2) Hazardous Marine Conditions
Strong winds and rough seas are likely for the bays and Gulf waters through Thursday. Sustained winds up to 35 knots with gusts over 40 knots expected in the Gulf waters. Offshore seas of 10-15 feet are likely. Higher winds likely within and near thunderstorms.
3) Rough Surf / Coastal Flooding
Saltwater inundation of low-lying roads, property, and businesses during high tide is possible, especially on Wednesday. High water levels may disrupt ferry services. Rough surf and strong rip currents will result in conditions too dangerous for swimming.
4) Strong Winds
Winds near the coast could gust over 40 MPH at times today and tomorrow, with stronger gusts possible within thunderstorms.
Isolated damaging gusts associated with thunderstorms possible.
Inland winds gusts up to 25-30 MPH could result in hazardous driving for high profile vehicles.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Deep tropical moisture will continue to pool into southeast Texas thanks to the slowly organizing tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and the persistent LL high pressure system over eastern CONUS. Though development into a tropical storm appears likely, it is worth emphasizing the system's impacts will not be dependent on whether or not it develops. Strong coastal winds, high coastal water levels, and periods of heavy rainfall will be a concern regardless. As the system moves towards towards Mexico, deep LL onshore flow will send PWATs well over 2 inches with coastal PWATs possibly approaching 3 inches by this evening. The coverage of rainbands will gradually increase on the north side of the disturbance, extending well north of the center of circulation. Though isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected this morning and afternoon, the bulk of these rainbands are expected to remain offshore. By late this afternoon/evening and especially by tonight, these bands of showers and thunderstorms should be moving into SE Texas from the Gulf. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has kept our southern/coastal counties (including the City of Houston) in a Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall capable of flash flooding for the Tuesday night to Wednesday time period.
So how much rainfall will occur? HRRR ensembles strongly suggest the presence of training rainbands that drop 5-10 inches of rain over the effected area. But where will those rainbands occur? Areas south of I-10, and particularly areas near the coast, appear to have the highest chance of seeing totals this heavy. HRRR ensemble maxima suggest the potential for locally over 10 inches of rainfall. But the overall total QPF forecast trend has been downward. Both hi-res and global guidance have been trending southward with the heaviest rainfall. These trends have resulted in a significant reduction in the expected rainfall over our northern counties. Expected totals from the Brazos Valley to Montgomery County have fallen to 1-2 inches while our northern Piney Woods counties have fallen under an inch. We still cannot rule out one of the aforementioned training rainbands impacting some of our northern counties. For that reason, WPC has our northern CWA in a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) to Slight (level 2 of 4)
excessive rainfall risk. Once you get south of I-10, rainfall totals are expected to average 3-6 inches, with higher totals likely in locations impacted by training rainbands. HRRR guidance is most aggressive with potential training bands in our SW counties from Brazoria and Fort Bend down to Matagorda Bay.
Locations not impacted by training rainbands will likely receive manageable rainfall. Most of the flash flooding should be associated with these bands.
The steeping LL gradient will also enhance winds today and tomorrow. Winds inland could easily gust over 25 MPH and possible over 30 MPH near and to the south of I-10. Closer to the coast, winds are expected to gust around 40 MPH. In addition, winds in the 925-850MB layer are expected to increase to 45 to 60 MPH. Any thunderstorm embedded within the rainbands will be capable of mixing some of the winds down to the surface, especially near the coast. Therefore, isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. The long fetch of winds across the Gulf will also push the ocean waters towards the shore, enhancing water levels along the coast. Minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide today.
The highest levels are expected to occur during high tide on Wednesday, when there is a greater chance of saltwater inundation of low lying roads, property, and businesses. Water levels may become high enough to disrupt ferry services.
By Wednesday evening / night, the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms should pull west of our CWA However, gusty coastal winds and coastal flooding are likely to continue.
Self
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Things will begin settling down on Thursday as the current troffiness, and whatever becomes of the PTC, across the western Gulf transitions further inland into Mexico. Ridging over the eastern parts of the country begins to expand westward into Texas. Moisture levels will be trending down, but by down I mean PW's falling into the 1.75-2" range. This will still be ample enough for scattered, mainly diurnally driven, precip across southern parts of the CWA where a prevailing llvl easterly flow continues and less subsidence from ridging will be situated. Same type situation exists Friday.
Sat-Sun should be even a touch drier/warmer with broad, flat ridging stretching across most of the area. Mainly isolated activity expected near the coast/offshore. Late in the weekend into early next week, we'll have to turn our attention back toward the Gulf.
Could see another easterly wave make its way across the Yucatan. By early next week it should be positioned in somewhat of a weakness between mid/upper ridging to our west and east. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of today, but increasing tropical moisture will cause increase cloud cover and showers/storms beginning this afternoon and continuing through Wednesday. Scattered showers will develop as early as 17z with some isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly south of IAH. There will be a lull in the thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon/evening, but widespread moderate to heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms will slide into SE Texas from the coast during the overnight hours tonight continuing into the day on Wednesday. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail beginning late this evening with CIGs down to 1500-2500ft. Gusty winds up to around 20-25kt inland, and up to 30-35kt along the coast (impacting mostly GLS) will begin to pick up this afternoon and continue through Wednesday.
Fowler
MARINE
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Hazardous winds and seas as well as well above normal water levels are likely to continue through Thursday. Sustained winds 25-35 knots with gusts potentially over 40 knots are likely today and tomorrow, along with offshore seas of 10-15 feet. Occasionally higher seas are likely. In addition, heavy bands of showers and thunderstorms are likely later today through Wednesday. Locally much strong winds are likely within and near thunderstorms.
Coastal flooding is likely during high tide today, Wednesday, and Thursday. Water levels could reach 4-6 feet above MLLW during high tide on Wednesday. Although conditions should begin to improve on Thursday, winds and seas of at least Small Craft Advisory level could linger until week's end.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 91 75 82 74 / 30 40 70 30 Houston (IAH) 88 75 84 76 / 50 60 80 40 Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 82 / 70 80 90 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch from this evening through late Wednesday night for TXZ197-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-313- 335>338-436>439.
Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-238-313-335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ335.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 623 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 424 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring a variety of hazards to our area over the next few days. Below is a list of primary concerns.
1) Heavy Rainfall
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are likely this evening through Wednesday, especially over our southern and coastal counties. The best chance of heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding will be from I-10 points south to the coast. If you encounter water covered roads while driving, please turn your car around. Have multiple ways to receive weather updates and warnings.
2) Hazardous Marine Conditions
Strong winds and rough seas are likely for the bays and Gulf waters through Thursday. Sustained winds up to 35 knots with gusts over 40 knots expected in the Gulf waters. Offshore seas of 10-15 feet are likely. Higher winds likely within and near thunderstorms.
3) Rough Surf / Coastal Flooding
Saltwater inundation of low-lying roads, property, and businesses during high tide is possible, especially on Wednesday. High water levels may disrupt ferry services. Rough surf and strong rip currents will result in conditions too dangerous for swimming.
4) Strong Winds
Winds near the coast could gust over 40 MPH at times today and tomorrow, with stronger gusts possible within thunderstorms.
Isolated damaging gusts associated with thunderstorms possible.
Inland winds gusts up to 25-30 MPH could result in hazardous driving for high profile vehicles.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Deep tropical moisture will continue to pool into southeast Texas thanks to the slowly organizing tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and the persistent LL high pressure system over eastern CONUS. Though development into a tropical storm appears likely, it is worth emphasizing the system's impacts will not be dependent on whether or not it develops. Strong coastal winds, high coastal water levels, and periods of heavy rainfall will be a concern regardless. As the system moves towards towards Mexico, deep LL onshore flow will send PWATs well over 2 inches with coastal PWATs possibly approaching 3 inches by this evening. The coverage of rainbands will gradually increase on the north side of the disturbance, extending well north of the center of circulation. Though isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected this morning and afternoon, the bulk of these rainbands are expected to remain offshore. By late this afternoon/evening and especially by tonight, these bands of showers and thunderstorms should be moving into SE Texas from the Gulf. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has kept our southern/coastal counties (including the City of Houston) in a Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall capable of flash flooding for the Tuesday night to Wednesday time period.
So how much rainfall will occur? HRRR ensembles strongly suggest the presence of training rainbands that drop 5-10 inches of rain over the effected area. But where will those rainbands occur? Areas south of I-10, and particularly areas near the coast, appear to have the highest chance of seeing totals this heavy. HRRR ensemble maxima suggest the potential for locally over 10 inches of rainfall. But the overall total QPF forecast trend has been downward. Both hi-res and global guidance have been trending southward with the heaviest rainfall. These trends have resulted in a significant reduction in the expected rainfall over our northern counties. Expected totals from the Brazos Valley to Montgomery County have fallen to 1-2 inches while our northern Piney Woods counties have fallen under an inch. We still cannot rule out one of the aforementioned training rainbands impacting some of our northern counties. For that reason, WPC has our northern CWA in a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) to Slight (level 2 of 4)
excessive rainfall risk. Once you get south of I-10, rainfall totals are expected to average 3-6 inches, with higher totals likely in locations impacted by training rainbands. HRRR guidance is most aggressive with potential training bands in our SW counties from Brazoria and Fort Bend down to Matagorda Bay.
Locations not impacted by training rainbands will likely receive manageable rainfall. Most of the flash flooding should be associated with these bands.
The steeping LL gradient will also enhance winds today and tomorrow. Winds inland could easily gust over 25 MPH and possible over 30 MPH near and to the south of I-10. Closer to the coast, winds are expected to gust around 40 MPH. In addition, winds in the 925-850MB layer are expected to increase to 45 to 60 MPH. Any thunderstorm embedded within the rainbands will be capable of mixing some of the winds down to the surface, especially near the coast. Therefore, isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. The long fetch of winds across the Gulf will also push the ocean waters towards the shore, enhancing water levels along the coast. Minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide today.
The highest levels are expected to occur during high tide on Wednesday, when there is a greater chance of saltwater inundation of low lying roads, property, and businesses. Water levels may become high enough to disrupt ferry services.
By Wednesday evening / night, the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms should pull west of our CWA However, gusty coastal winds and coastal flooding are likely to continue.
Self
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Things will begin settling down on Thursday as the current troffiness, and whatever becomes of the PTC, across the western Gulf transitions further inland into Mexico. Ridging over the eastern parts of the country begins to expand westward into Texas. Moisture levels will be trending down, but by down I mean PW's falling into the 1.75-2" range. This will still be ample enough for scattered, mainly diurnally driven, precip across southern parts of the CWA where a prevailing llvl easterly flow continues and less subsidence from ridging will be situated. Same type situation exists Friday.
Sat-Sun should be even a touch drier/warmer with broad, flat ridging stretching across most of the area. Mainly isolated activity expected near the coast/offshore. Late in the weekend into early next week, we'll have to turn our attention back toward the Gulf.
Could see another easterly wave make its way across the Yucatan. By early next week it should be positioned in somewhat of a weakness between mid/upper ridging to our west and east. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of today, but increasing tropical moisture will cause increase cloud cover and showers/storms beginning this afternoon and continuing through Wednesday. Scattered showers will develop as early as 17z with some isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly south of IAH. There will be a lull in the thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon/evening, but widespread moderate to heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms will slide into SE Texas from the coast during the overnight hours tonight continuing into the day on Wednesday. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail beginning late this evening with CIGs down to 1500-2500ft. Gusty winds up to around 20-25kt inland, and up to 30-35kt along the coast (impacting mostly GLS) will begin to pick up this afternoon and continue through Wednesday.
Fowler
MARINE
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Hazardous winds and seas as well as well above normal water levels are likely to continue through Thursday. Sustained winds 25-35 knots with gusts potentially over 40 knots are likely today and tomorrow, along with offshore seas of 10-15 feet. Occasionally higher seas are likely. In addition, heavy bands of showers and thunderstorms are likely later today through Wednesday. Locally much strong winds are likely within and near thunderstorms.
Coastal flooding is likely during high tide today, Wednesday, and Thursday. Water levels could reach 4-6 feet above MLLW during high tide on Wednesday. Although conditions should begin to improve on Thursday, winds and seas of at least Small Craft Advisory level could linger until week's end.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 91 75 82 74 / 30 40 70 30 Houston (IAH) 88 75 84 76 / 50 60 80 40 Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 82 / 70 80 90 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch from this evening through late Wednesday night for TXZ197-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-313- 335>338-436>439.
Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-238-313-335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ335.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LUIT2 | 4 mi | 55 min | E 15G | 85°F | 86°F | 29.82 | ||
| FPST2 | 9 mi | 55 min | E 18G | 82°F | 86°F | 29.80 | ||
| GRRT2 | 24 mi | 55 min | ENE 17G | 85°F | 85°F | 29.80 | ||
| GTOT2 | 28 mi | 55 min | E 8.9G | 86°F | 89°F | 29.79 | ||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 33 mi | 55 min | ESE 19G | 84°F | 86°F | 29.80 | ||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 34 mi | 55 min | E 19G | 84°F | 85°F | 29.82 | ||
| KGVW | 34 mi | 28 min | E 17 | 86°F | 77°F | |||
| 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX | 43 mi | 43 min | E 19G | 84°F | 29.82 | |||
| EMAT2 | 45 mi | 55 min | ENE 23G | 84°F | 85°F | 29.79 | ||
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 46 mi | 55 min | ENE 14G | 83°F | 86°F | 29.83 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 48 mi | 55 min | E 7G | 87°F | 29.81 | |||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 48 mi | 55 min | E 17G | 83°F | 87°F | 29.84 |
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Wind History graph: LBX
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Christmas Bay, Texas, Tide feet
Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:34 AM CDT 1.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 05:28 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:31 PM CDT -0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:34 AM CDT 1.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 05:28 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:31 PM CDT -0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Freeport Harbor, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| -0 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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