Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roslyn Harbor, NY
June 6, 2024 8:10 AM EDT (12:10 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM Moonset 9:10 PM |
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 551 Am Edt Thu Jun 6 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Isolated tstms this morning. Showers. Chance of tstms this afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and chance of tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Fri night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Sun - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 551 Am Edt Thu Jun 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A cold front will pass through this evening. A broad area of low pressure then meanders nearby over southeast canada Friday and into early next week. High pressure follows for the middle of next week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 061151 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 751 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front approaches from the south tonight and lifts north of the area Thursday morning. A cold frontal passage will follow Thursday night. A broad area of low pressure meanders nearby over southeast Canada Friday and into early next week. High pressure follow for the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast is on track with only minor updates to PoPs. Swath of heavier precipitation is moving quickly across eastern Long Island and southeastern CT. Recent observations from automated gages and MRMS show a swath of about 0.5 - 1.0" associated with this activity. This precip will continue to work east and be clear of the area in the next hour or two.
Mid and upper ridge axis heads east of the area today as a sprawling upper low approaches the Great Lakes. Upper flow flattens as a result through this evening. At the surface, a warm front was located on a line from about BLM- TTN- RDG as the attendant sfc low heads through Ontario. A cold front was also located back to the west across eastern OH/western PA.
Precip ahead of the warm front has been pushing northeast out of central NJ and has had embedded convective elements with some lightning. Bulk of the activity should remain over the waters and move over central and eastern Long Island and southern CT over the next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis depicts a narrow corridor of MUCAPE across these areas that the unorganized precip is moving over.
Warm front will continue to push north today as the cold front heads toward and passes through the local area by the afternoon into the evening. The early morning precip should end areawide by 15Z, with a dry period and some breaks of sun into early afternoon. CAMs suggest convective initiation holds off until after 18Z for the western portions of the area, to the west and north of NYC. While thermodynamics look favorable (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J./kg) some question on whether the flow aloft/shear (~30kts 0-6km) will be sufficient for organized storms. The local area is also removed somewhat from the more favorable upper environment to the north associated with the upper low. Regardless, given the environment, any thunderstorms that do develop have a risk of strong winds (Bulk of the CAPE below the hail growth zone) and locally heavy precip (air mass Pwats still near 1.5-1.75"). See hydro. section for more details. SPC maintains the MRGL risk of severe for the whole area except eastern Long Island.
One more warm and humid day today with highs in the low to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The upper low remains over New England for the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon under west/northwest flow and the cold pool aloft. CAMs/HRRR are depicting that potential, especially across the interior by Friday afternoon.
For now have elected to keep thunder out of the forecast, with very marginal thermo profiles. Westerly flow should keep temperatures in the 80s for most, but with dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s, it will feel less humid than Thursday. Well-mixed boundary afternoon boundary layer may also allow for some westerly wind gusts near 20mph.
With the upper low still meandering over the northeast, Saturday looks similar to Friday, with another day of diurnally-driven showers with the cold pool aloft.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
No changes made to the long term this update.
A relatively unsettled period this weekend into early next week with an upper low cutting off and meandering over the Great Lakes region and southeast Canada much of the time, with multiple vorticies rotating around it that may periodically enhance rain chances locally.
The broad low nearby likely instigates diurnal shower activity with varying coverage each day, especially inland. As the cold pool moves aloft, also can't rule out the possibility of thunderstorms with added instability. Global guidance continues to offer differing solutions with any potential vorticies however and this will need to be resolved for further clarity on when rain chances will be highest.
Temperatures, while hampered by cloud cover and rain at times, should still manage to get into the 70s and lower 80s most afternoons, or about typical for this time of year. For now, continued to cap PoPs at 50%, otherwise, national blend was followed with subtle adjustments.
After Tuesday, global guidance varies. They agree on the meandering low finally pushing out into the open Atlantic. They disagree on what happens afterwards with some of the guidance hinting at a ridging pattern taking hold, while others bring in another trough from the west.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A warm front continues to lift north of the region this morning. A cold front will move across the area this evening.
Most of the rain has moved into the eastern terminals, with improving conditions in NYC. As of 11z, the NYC terminals are VFR/MVFR, with IFR or lower at all the outlying terminals.
Improvement is expected as the morning progresses. Mainly looking at VFR/MVFR today, except east of NYC, where it may remain IFR for a period. After a short break in the precipitation, another round of showers and thunderstorms is then possible this afternoon. Higher confidence in thunder for this period and will convert the PROB30s to TEMPOs. Best timing looks to be between 18-19z through 23-00z. Any storms will be capable of gusty winds and heavy downpours. Drier weather then expected overnight and Friday morning.
Southerly flow persists today, speeds around or slightly above 10 kt. Winds tonight become more westerly behind the cold front. Winds may become light and variable for a period tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible this morning for changing flight categories as cigs fluctuate between VFR and MVFR.
Timing of flight category declines and SHRA late this evening may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a shower for KSWF.
Saturday-Monday: Chance of MVFR in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
SCA continues for the ocean waters through tonight. Marginal seas 4-5ft and southerly gusts 20-25kt look to continue until early Friday with the frontal system in the vicinity.
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through the weekend into Monday.
HYDROLOGY
Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00" with localized higher amounts are expected through tonight. Minor nuisance poor drainage flooding will be the primary threat especially in urban and low lying areas. The flooding potential will be limited due to the expected speed of the showers and thunderstorms.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Have continued the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal Fairfield, Westchester, and S Nassau counties for this evening's high tide cycle. Elevated astronomical high tides associated with the new moon combined with onshore flow will continue to support water levels touching or just surpassing minor flood benchmarks in these areas.
It is uncertain whether the Fri evening high tide cycle will also be impacted, as multiple high tide cycle surge events such as this can sometimes last longer than model forecasts.
There is a high rip current risk at the Suffolk County ocean beaches today. There is a moderate risk elsewhere. This is due to building seas, southerly swell, and a strengthening southerly flow. A moderate chance of rip currents is in place for Friday, as well.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ080-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 751 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front approaches from the south tonight and lifts north of the area Thursday morning. A cold frontal passage will follow Thursday night. A broad area of low pressure meanders nearby over southeast Canada Friday and into early next week. High pressure follow for the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast is on track with only minor updates to PoPs. Swath of heavier precipitation is moving quickly across eastern Long Island and southeastern CT. Recent observations from automated gages and MRMS show a swath of about 0.5 - 1.0" associated with this activity. This precip will continue to work east and be clear of the area in the next hour or two.
Mid and upper ridge axis heads east of the area today as a sprawling upper low approaches the Great Lakes. Upper flow flattens as a result through this evening. At the surface, a warm front was located on a line from about BLM- TTN- RDG as the attendant sfc low heads through Ontario. A cold front was also located back to the west across eastern OH/western PA.
Precip ahead of the warm front has been pushing northeast out of central NJ and has had embedded convective elements with some lightning. Bulk of the activity should remain over the waters and move over central and eastern Long Island and southern CT over the next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis depicts a narrow corridor of MUCAPE across these areas that the unorganized precip is moving over.
Warm front will continue to push north today as the cold front heads toward and passes through the local area by the afternoon into the evening. The early morning precip should end areawide by 15Z, with a dry period and some breaks of sun into early afternoon. CAMs suggest convective initiation holds off until after 18Z for the western portions of the area, to the west and north of NYC. While thermodynamics look favorable (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J./kg) some question on whether the flow aloft/shear (~30kts 0-6km) will be sufficient for organized storms. The local area is also removed somewhat from the more favorable upper environment to the north associated with the upper low. Regardless, given the environment, any thunderstorms that do develop have a risk of strong winds (Bulk of the CAPE below the hail growth zone) and locally heavy precip (air mass Pwats still near 1.5-1.75"). See hydro. section for more details. SPC maintains the MRGL risk of severe for the whole area except eastern Long Island.
One more warm and humid day today with highs in the low to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The upper low remains over New England for the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon under west/northwest flow and the cold pool aloft. CAMs/HRRR are depicting that potential, especially across the interior by Friday afternoon.
For now have elected to keep thunder out of the forecast, with very marginal thermo profiles. Westerly flow should keep temperatures in the 80s for most, but with dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s, it will feel less humid than Thursday. Well-mixed boundary afternoon boundary layer may also allow for some westerly wind gusts near 20mph.
With the upper low still meandering over the northeast, Saturday looks similar to Friday, with another day of diurnally-driven showers with the cold pool aloft.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
No changes made to the long term this update.
A relatively unsettled period this weekend into early next week with an upper low cutting off and meandering over the Great Lakes region and southeast Canada much of the time, with multiple vorticies rotating around it that may periodically enhance rain chances locally.
The broad low nearby likely instigates diurnal shower activity with varying coverage each day, especially inland. As the cold pool moves aloft, also can't rule out the possibility of thunderstorms with added instability. Global guidance continues to offer differing solutions with any potential vorticies however and this will need to be resolved for further clarity on when rain chances will be highest.
Temperatures, while hampered by cloud cover and rain at times, should still manage to get into the 70s and lower 80s most afternoons, or about typical for this time of year. For now, continued to cap PoPs at 50%, otherwise, national blend was followed with subtle adjustments.
After Tuesday, global guidance varies. They agree on the meandering low finally pushing out into the open Atlantic. They disagree on what happens afterwards with some of the guidance hinting at a ridging pattern taking hold, while others bring in another trough from the west.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A warm front continues to lift north of the region this morning. A cold front will move across the area this evening.
Most of the rain has moved into the eastern terminals, with improving conditions in NYC. As of 11z, the NYC terminals are VFR/MVFR, with IFR or lower at all the outlying terminals.
Improvement is expected as the morning progresses. Mainly looking at VFR/MVFR today, except east of NYC, where it may remain IFR for a period. After a short break in the precipitation, another round of showers and thunderstorms is then possible this afternoon. Higher confidence in thunder for this period and will convert the PROB30s to TEMPOs. Best timing looks to be between 18-19z through 23-00z. Any storms will be capable of gusty winds and heavy downpours. Drier weather then expected overnight and Friday morning.
Southerly flow persists today, speeds around or slightly above 10 kt. Winds tonight become more westerly behind the cold front. Winds may become light and variable for a period tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible this morning for changing flight categories as cigs fluctuate between VFR and MVFR.
Timing of flight category declines and SHRA late this evening may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a shower for KSWF.
Saturday-Monday: Chance of MVFR in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
SCA continues for the ocean waters through tonight. Marginal seas 4-5ft and southerly gusts 20-25kt look to continue until early Friday with the frontal system in the vicinity.
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through the weekend into Monday.
HYDROLOGY
Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00" with localized higher amounts are expected through tonight. Minor nuisance poor drainage flooding will be the primary threat especially in urban and low lying areas. The flooding potential will be limited due to the expected speed of the showers and thunderstorms.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Have continued the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal Fairfield, Westchester, and S Nassau counties for this evening's high tide cycle. Elevated astronomical high tides associated with the new moon combined with onshore flow will continue to support water levels touching or just surpassing minor flood benchmarks in these areas.
It is uncertain whether the Fri evening high tide cycle will also be impacted, as multiple high tide cycle surge events such as this can sometimes last longer than model forecasts.
There is a high rip current risk at the Suffolk County ocean beaches today. There is a moderate risk elsewhere. This is due to building seas, southerly swell, and a strengthening southerly flow. A moderate chance of rip currents is in place for Friday, as well.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ080-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 6 mi | 41 min | NE 3.9 | 66°F | 29.57 | 66°F | ||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 31 mi | 41 min | SSW 9.7G | 69°F | 69°F | 29.59 | 69°F | |
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 46 mi | 41 min | SW 16G | 69°F | 68°F | 29.60 | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY | 12 sm | 19 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.57 | |
| KFRG REPUBLIC,NY | 14 sm | 17 min | SSW 06 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.59 |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 14 sm | 19 min | SSW 04 | 6 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Mist | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 29.59 |
| KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY | 18 sm | 14 min | calm | 1/2 sm | -- | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.59 | |
| KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY | 21 sm | 14 min | SSW 05 | 9 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 68°F | 94% | 29.60 | |
| KTEB TETERBORO,NJ | 22 sm | 12 min | SW 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.57 |
Tide / Current for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Washington
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:59 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT -0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT New Moon
Thu -- 12:24 PM EDT 7.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:59 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT -0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT New Moon
Thu -- 12:24 PM EDT 7.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 8.5 |
| 1 am |
| 7.9 |
| 2 am |
| 6.2 |
| 3 am |
| 3.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0.6 |
| 7 am |
| -0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.7 |
| 10 am |
| 5.1 |
| 11 am |
| 6.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 7.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 6.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 7.6 |
Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:00 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT 1.05 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT New Moon
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:28 PM EDT 1.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 09:37 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:00 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT 1.05 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT New Moon
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:28 PM EDT 1.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 09:37 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.8 |
| 1 am |
| -0.6 |
| 2 am |
| -0.3 |
| 3 am |
| -0 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Upton, NY,
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