Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM   Moonset 3:47 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS61 KILN 021253 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 853 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area today offering a continued chance of a shower and perhaps a thunderstorm. The front will stall and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday providing a period of dry weather. An unsettled pattern will then develop for mid week and continue through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
An area of showers is moving across the middle part of the forecast area and will continue tracking east through the rest of the morning.

Weak surface low in southern Indiana at mid morning will drift east into the Tri-State this afternoon. This could be sufficient to generate some additional showers mainly across the southern part of the forecast area. A trough axis extending north from this low could also serve as a focus for some showers this afternoon from west central Ohio into the upper parts of the Miami and Whitewater Valleys.

Still uncertainty with how much clouds decrease this afternoon which will affect how much instability may develop and thus whether any thunderstorms will occur as well as high temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Lingering showers and embedded thunder will end this evening in weakly forced environment. Signal for fog development exists tonight in light wind regime with abundant low level moisture.
At this time have a mention of fog in the forecast but have not mentioned dense fog but that potential does exist. Lows will fall into the lower 60s for most locations.

Weak surface high pressure across the area Monday will offer dry conditions. Fog that develops will improve by mid morning with skies becoming partly by afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower and middle 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Shortwave energy running into an upper ridge will get stalled west of the CWA Monday night and gradually increase lift as it eventually tops the ridge in northwest Ohio later in the day Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase slightly through daybreak Wednesday as the upper ridge moves to the East Coast. As the zonal southwest flow follows the breakdown of the ridge, moisture will be pulled into the Ohio Valley, along with shortwave energy passing east as it rotates around an elongated cutoff low running nw-se through the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will result, peaking in the afternoon and tapering off overnight. Thursday will have a continued chance of showers and maybe some thunderstorms in the afternoon as the cutoff low begins to track along the nw-se axis towards MI. For the remainder of the forecast, the upper low wraps up in MI and makes a slow track into northern OH by Friday night.
The atmosphere should be worked over beginning Thursday night with drier air being pulled in from the northwest. The cold nature of the low should see passing shower activity, and some insolation on Saturday could interact with energy on the back side of the low for the showers to strengthen enough to spark some thunder in the late day.

A warm start to Tuesday with morning lows in the mid 60s will warm nicely into the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows are even warmer on Tuesday night, only dropping to the upper 60s. The precip on Wednesday will knock highs down a bit from near 80 in the west to the mid 80s in the east. Temperatures continue a decline through the remainder of the forecast, dropping below 60 for lows Thursday night and under 80 for highs on Friday and lingering in the upper 70s and upper 50s into the weekend.

AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid level shortwave to dampen out and slowly shift east- southeast today. Hang back troughing will be slow to exit, mainly across the south/southeast thru this afternoon. This trof combined with marginal instability will lead to a continued threat for showers this morning and then showers with embedded thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. The coverage will be best across KCVG and KLUK.

Meanwhile, a weak front will push into western counties this afternoon and then stall and eventually wash out. Forcing will be weak, but with abundant low level moisture in place - marginal instability will develop this aftn. This will allow a continued threat for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm thru the aftn into early evening across the north. Coverage from this feature looks to be limited and mainly isolated to scattered. Due to overall lack of coverage for storms have omitted the mention of thunder in the TAF forecasts at this time.

Widespread MVFR with a period of IFR ceilings expected thru the morning. Expect some slow improvement thru the late morning with a period of VFR likely later this afternoon into this evening. Confidence on exact timing and how quickly ceilings improve to VFR is low.

A signal for fog development looks good for tonight. Have MVFR vsby restrictions at all TAF sites with IFR conditions at KCVG and KLUK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs /VIS possible Monday morning. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Wilmington, OH,